Economy.com Daily Update: May 31, 2024

Today's Economy

As expected, April’s PCE deflator showed some welcome moderation.

The former U.S. president and his legal team are likely to appeal, as they believe he was prosecuted on political grounds.

Why is the Bank of Canada concerned about cutting rates too soon before the Fed?

A rebound in service inflation was likely caused by expectations for a busy summer tourist season.

Commentary

The May employment report is likely to show a second straight month of moderating job growth after an impressive first quarter.

A 25-basis point interest rate cut is widely expected from the ECB next week.

Australia's March-quarter GDP likely grew just 0.2% from the December quarter.

As geopolitical tensions bubble, the country finally looks to its domestic economy to diversify growth.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
May. 2024: 26.1%
World recession risks declined to 26.1% with data through March, indicating a very low risk of global recession.

Finland
GDP
2024Q1: 0.2% q/q
Finland’s real GDP eked out 0.2% quarter-over-quarter growth in the first stanza of 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.8% dip in the fourth quarter.

Germany
Retail Sales
Apr. 2024: -1.2% m/m
In April, Germany's retail sales dropped 1.2% month over month, partly reversing a revised 2.6% gain in March.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Apr. 2024: -US$1.6 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade deficit widened to $1.6 billion in April from $1.2 billion in March.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
Retail Sales
Apr. 2024: -14.7% y/y
Hong Kong’s retail sales value fell 14.7% year over year in April.

Italy
GDP
2024Q1: 0.3% q/q
Final numbers show that Italy's GDP increased by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2024, confirming ISTAT’s preliminary estimate.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
May. 2024: 2.6% y/y
According to preliminary estimates, the euro zone’s HICP inflation rate reaccelerated to 2.6% y/y in May from 2.4% in April.

France
GDP
2024Q1: 0.2% q/q
Final estimates confirm that France’s first-quarter GDP grew 0.2% q/q, picking up from a 0.1% advance in the final quarter of 2023.

Belgium
GDP
2024Q1: 0.3% q/q
Belgium’s GDP advanced by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2024, identical to the fourth quarter of 2024 and in line with our forecast.

India
GDP
2024Q1: 7.8 % y/y
India’s real GDP for the quarter ending in March grew 7.8% year over year, coming in lower than the previous quarter’s upwardly revised reading of 8.6% y/y.

United States
Personal Income
Apr. 2024: 0.3% m/m
Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in April, a touch higher than our below-consensus forecast.

United States
PCE Deflator
Apr. 2024: 0.3% m/m
The personal consumption expenditure deflator rose 0.3% in April from the month before.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Apr. 2024: -0.1% m/m
Real consumer spending growth remains inconsistent month to month but with a healthy trend despite a dip in April.

Canada
GDP
2024Q1: 1.7% SAAR
Solid income gains helped lift consumer spending and GDP to a modest gain in the first quarter.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Mar. 2024: 0.0% m/m
Canada's real gross domestic product moved sideways in March after growing 0.2% in February.

Chile
Manufacturing Production
Apr. 2024: 5.09% y/y
Manufacturing production increased in April as the monetary easing advanced further and stimulated the domestic market.

Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Apr. 2024: 5.0% y/y
The April retail sales report showed retail spending mostly flat in the past two months after a meaningful upswing last fall and early this year.

United States
Moody’s Analytics House Price Index
Apr. 2024:

Portugal
GDP
2024Q1: 0.8% q/q
The first quarter showed strong growth in Portugal.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Apr. 2024: 0.2% m/m
In April, the Agricultural Prices Received Index rose by a modest 0.2% from the prior month but was down 6.3% on a year-ago basis.