Economy.com Daily Update: May 9, 2024

Today's Economy

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped more than expected.

The Monetary Policy Committee has not ruled out a cut in June or August.

The first two months mostly carried the quarter.

Of the numerous challenges facing the president-elect, revitalizing the economy is top priority.

Commentary

The delinquency rate continues to inch toward the pre-pandemic norm.

Unless policy action is taken, Social Security and Medicare recipients will face a 21% and 11% cut to scheduled benefits, respectively.

Economic growth will remain below trend this year, but slow growth will bring inflation closer to the Fed’s target without precipitating a contraction.

If the Fed is too slow in loosening policy, the robust labor market may soften excessively.

Today's Economic Indicators

Japan
Consumption Activity Index
Mar. 2024: -0.3% m/m
The Bank of Japan’s real consumption activity index adjusted for travel fell 0.3% m/m in March, disappointing our expectation for a small increase.

Malaysia
Monetary policy
May. 2024: 3%
Bank Negara Malaysia maintained its overnight policy rate at 3%, as widely expected.

Ireland
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2024: 2.6% y/y
In April, Ireland’s consumer price inflation continued to moderate in line with expectations, rising 2.6% year on year compared with 2.9% in March.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
May. 2024: 5.25%
At the May meeting, the Bank of England kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, in line with our baseline and financial market expectations.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Apr. 2024: 4.65% y/y
Annual inflation continued to trend up in April as the comparison base affected the annual growth of consumer prices.

United States
Jobless Claims
May 04: 231,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped more than expected, but there is still little doubt about the health of the labor market.

United States
Moody's Analytics Used Vehicle Price Indexes
Apr. 2024: -11.61%
The Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Sale Price Index and the Retention Index declined 2.79% and 2.72%, respectively, in seasonally adjusted terms, with decreases of 1.06% and 1.04% in not seasonally adjusted terms, month over month.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
May 03: -0.83
U.S. financial stress increased marginally in the week ended May 3, with the St.

United States
NAR Metro Prices
2024Q1: 5% y/y
The median price of an existing single-family home rose 5% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
May 03: 79 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in natural gas storage fell short of analyst predictions, so this report could put additional upward pressure on gas prices.

Mexico
Monetary Policy
May. 2024: 11.00%
The Bank of Mexico introduced a monetary pause in the recently inaugurated relaxation cycle as inflation continues to go up.