| Today's Economy
Final Thoughts Ahead of October U.S. Employment Job growth likely bounced back, but a calendar quirk will affect average hourly earnings. Europe Daily Briefing: Bank of England in Wait-and-See Mode Asia-Pacific Daily Briefing: Korea's Exports Rebound With a Vengeance The rebound reflected easing of earlier disruptions related to the Chuseok holiday. Ratio of Net Stock Buybacks to Cash Is Well Under Previous Cycle Highs The ratio offers insight to the financial risks stemming from net stock buybacks. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Colombia Outlook: Growth Ahead Oil prices and the trade war add uncertainty. Through the Fed's Eyes The U.S. central bank likely views tightening financial market conditions as more beneficial than harmful. Road to Recession: A Transition Nears Though the mid-cycle is typically the longest phase of an expansion, the late phase can last several months to several years. U.S. Spending Less Skewed in 2017 High-income households dominate spending, but the strong labor market supported the share going to lower-income households. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Oct. 2018: 17.5 mil, SAAR
New vehicle sales defied expectations for the second month in a row at 17.5M SAAR units, making October the strongest sale month of 2018 thus far. United States
Challenger Report
Oct. 2018: 75,644
Announced job cuts have jumped recently, rising 36.8% in October to 75,644. Brazil
Industrial Production
Sep. 2018: -0.1%
Unexpectedly, Brazil’s industry contracted in September, after advancing in the previous month. Peru
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2018:
United States
Productivity and Costs
2018Q3: 2.2%
U.S. productivity growth has improved recently, and if it sticks, it would be a good sign for wage growth and the economy’s potential growth rate. United States
Industry GDP
2018Q2: 3.9 ppt, SAAR
The U.S. economy is growing comfortably above its potential and the breadth of growth has improved. United States
Jobless Claims
October 27: 214,000
Jobless claims continue to send positive signals about the health of the labor market. United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Nov. 2018: 0.75%
The Bank of England didn’t rock the boat in November, as expected. United States
Construction Spending (C30)
Sep. 2018: 0.0%
Construction spending was unchanged in September, falling below the consensus estimate of a small 0.1% increase. Nonresidential construction was the main culprit behind weaker than expected outlays, falling 0.3%. United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 26: -1.00
Financial stress increased last week as weaker than expected earnings reignited a sell-off in equities. United States
ISM Manufacturing Index
Oct. 2018: 57.7
The ISM manufacturing index dropped more than either we or the consensus anticipated in October, but the implications for our outlook for GDP and industrial production are not significant. United States
NAR Metro Prices
2018Q3: 4.8%
House price growth was healthy in the third quarter but is starting to show signs of slowing. United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 26: 48 bil cubic feet
The rise in natural gas inventories was slightly lower than analysts were expecting, and that will apply a small amount of upward pressure on prices. Brazil
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2018: US$6.12 bil
Brazil’s trade surplus swelled to $6.1 billion in October, an increase of $1.2 billion from September. Australia
Retail Sales
Sep. 2018:
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