Today's Economy

Current-quarter growth is now on track to rise 7.4% at an annualized rate.

The Fed's inflation problem has gotten worse and it will likely respond.

Core prices are 3.1% higher in year-ago terms, lower than the headline but still considerably above the ECB target.

Vaccination is making progress, but the road ahead is far from clear.

Commentary

The Delta variant caused global supply-chain problems to go from bad to worse in the third quarter.

A similar, although less drastic, story so far is unfolding throughout the Continent.

However, the economic recovery could be bumpy.

To better gauge the stress, we have identified and combined a range of high-frequency metrics to create an index.

Today's Economic Indicators

Canada
RPS House Price Index
Oct. 2021:

Germany
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 4.5% y/y
Germany’s consumer price index rose by 0.5% m/m in October, bringing the index 4.5% above year-ago levels.

Denmark
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 3.0% y/y
Denmark’s Consumer Price Index was up 3% y/y in October.

Finland
Industrial Production
Sep. 2021: 0.5% m/m
Finland’s industrial production expanded by 0.5% m/m after a downwardly revised 1.3% increase in August.

Thailand
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2021: 0.5%
As expected, the Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in its November meeting.

Norway
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 3.5% y/y
Norway’s consumer price index fell back to 3.5% y/y in October from a five-year high of 4.1% y/y in September.

China
Monetary Aggregates
Oct. 2021:

Austria
Industrial Production
Sep. 2021: -2.3% m/m
Constrained by the global supply-side crunch, Austrian industrial production shrank for the third consecutive month, by 2.3% m/m in September.

Italy
Industrial Production
Sep. 2021: 0.1% m/m
Italy’s industrial production grew in September, both in monthly and yearly terms, offsetting August’s drop.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 10.67% y/y
Annual inflation in Brazil has escalated well above the target’s upper limit as prices are under strong pressure and a further deterioration in expectations.

Portugal
Unemployment rate
2021Q3: 6.1%
Portugal’s unemployment continued its downward trend in the third quarter, falling to 6.1% from 6.7% in the previous quarter.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
November 05: 5.5%
Mortgage applications recovered in the week of November 5.

United States
Jobless Claims
November 06: 267,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits slipped from 271,000 to 267,000 in the week ended November 6.

United States
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 0.9% m/m
The U.S. consumer price index came in hotter than expected in October, dialing up the pressure on the Federal Reserve to defend its view that inflationary pressures are transitory.

Netherlands
Industrial Production
Sep. 2021: 10.8% y/y
Average daily production growth in the Netherlands picked up in September.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
November 05:

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
November 07: 2.47%
The Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse held steady during the week ended November 7, with the 10-year IEP staying level at 2.47%.

United States
NAR Metro Prices
2021Q3: 16% y/y
The national median sale price of existing single-family homes increased during the third quarter, rising 16% from a year earlier, which is a modest deceleration from the last reading.

United States
Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
Sep. 2021: 1.4% m/m
September saw a stronger inventory build than anticipated.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
November 05: 354.0 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S.

United States
Oil Inventories
November 05: 435.1 mil barrels
A smaller-than-predicted build in crude oil inventories should apply some downward pressure on oil prices.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 05: 7 bil cubic feet
Last week’s increase in natural gas stocks fell short of analyst predictions, which will not help in bringing down high prices.

Australia
Employment Situation
Oct. 2021: