Economy.com Daily Update: November 24, 2021

Today's Economy

Our U.S. offices are closed for the national holiday on Thursday and Friday, November 25 and 26.

Why does the Fed have a 2% inflation target?

U.S. inflation rose, spending was solid, and business investment picked up, but home sales disappointed.

Inflation and poor fundamentals threaten Argentina’s solid progress.

Commentary

Surging infections bring Europe's largest economy to the brink of lockdown.

The seven-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. also has resumed rising.

Political turmoil threatens to take a toll on growth.

Easing social distancing restrictions will allow domestic economies to accelerate.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Oct. 2021: 5.66%
The Moody’s Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate dropped 37 basis points to 5.66% in October.

United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
November 19: 1.8%
Mortgage applications climbed 1.8% in the week of November 19, following last week’s 2.8% contraction.

United States
GDP
2021Q3: 2.1%, q/q, SAAR
U.S.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Oct. 2021: -0.5% m/m
U.S. durable-goods orders fell in October, but the details were better than the headline would otherwise suggest.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Oct. 2021: 2.2% m/m
U.S. businesses are rebuilding their depleted inventories, and this will be a key support to real GDP growth this quarter and in early 2022.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Oct. 2021: -$82.9 bil
The U.S. nominal goods deficit narrowed more than expected in October, an early indication that net exports may not be a weight on fourth-quarter GDP growth.

United States
Jobless Claims
November 20: 199,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits plunged, but this won’t stick; seasonal adjustment can plague new filings this time of year.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Nov. 2021: 67.4
U.S. consumer confidence fell further to a new pandemic-era low in November, according to the final report from the University of Michigan.

United States
New-Home Sales
Oct. 2021: 745,000 SAAR
U.S. new-home sales came in weaker than expected in October and revisions to September were unfavorable.

United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
November 21: 2.51%
Inflation expectations advanced last week, according to the Moody’s Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse.

United States
Personal Income
Oct. 2021: 0.5% m/m
Personal income rose by a quicker-than-anticipated 0.5% m/m in October, besting our projection for a 0.1% m/m increase.

United States
PCE Deflator
Oct. 2021: 0.6% m/m
The Federal Reserve can’t catch a break on inflation and the next few months won’t get any better, but the central bank needs to be patient and use communication, rather than the fed funds rate, to address public and political pressure to address inflation.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Oct. 2021: 0.7% m/m
Real consumer spending in the U.S. rose for the third straight month in October.

United States
Oil Inventories
November 19: 434.0 mil barrels
An unexpected increase in crude oil stocks will put downward pressure on oil prices.

Russian Federation
Industrial Production
Oct. 2021: 7.1% y/y
Russia's industrial production growth accelerated in October, rising to a 7.1% yearly gain from 6.8% in September.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 19: -21 bil cubic feet
Last week’s draw in natural gas stocks was roughly in line with analyst predictions, indicating that this report will not have too much of an effect on prices.

United States
FOMC Minutes
Nov. 2021:
The minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed the central bank has a lot of flexibility to adjust the pace of tapering based on how the economy evolves along with inflation.

South Korea
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2021: