Real-time coverage of the global economy, including in-depth analysis of more than 300 economic indicators, topics and long-term trends, plus macro forecasts and outlooks.

Real-time coverage of the global economy, including in-depth analysis of more than 300 economic indicators, topics and long-term trends, plus macro forecasts and outlooks.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Today's Economy


Economic Roundup: U.S. Q4 GDP Estimate Takes a Hit

The October goods deficit and inventories were behind the reduction.

Powell Closely Guards His Views on Monetary Policy

We believe the Fed chair nominee is a centrist for now.

U.S. Consumers Are Feeling Good

Odds are the gap between the Conference Board and University of Michigan will remain wide.

Goods Deficit, Inventories Cut U.S. Q4 GDP Tracking Estimate

Our model lowers fourth quarter GDP growth from 2.7% to 2.6% at an annualized rate.

» VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY



Commentary


Russia Outlook: A Modest Recovery

Robust consumption and investments in the energy industry drive the turnaround.

India Outlook: Reform Bonanza Outweighs Cyclical Slowdown

Global investors have a favourable view of the economy.

U.S. Chartbook: Hope in Existing-Home Sales

October sales were weaker than expected but offer upside in November and December.

Asia-Pacific Weekly Highlights and Preview, 24 November, 2017

External demand belies Japan's fragile domestic economy.

» VIEW MORE COMMENTARY



Today's Economic Indicators


Spain
Retail Sales
Oct. 2017: -1.1%
Spain's retail trade fell 1.1% m/m in October, dashing our expectations of a third consecutive month of gains.

Euro Zone
Monetary Aggregates
Oct. 2017: 5.0%
The seasonally adjusted annual growth of the broader monetary aggregate M3 sat at 5% y/y in October.

United States
Black Knight Home Price Index
Sep. 2017: 6.4%
House prices rose 6.4% on a year-ago basis in September, according to the Black Knight Home Price Index.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
November 24: 85.9
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index has increased over the past few weeks, which isn’t surprising given the dynamics in Washington DC.

Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Oct. 2017: 1.0%
Industrial product and raw materials prices pushed higher in October.

Russian Federation
Business Confidence
Nov. 2017: -4.0
Russian business confidence weakened by 1 percentage point in November, with manufacturing managers reporting -4% net positive responses, the lowest level since December.

United States
Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories
Oct. 2017: -0.4%
The inventory build took a step back in October.

United States
International Trade in Goods - Advanced
Oct. 2017: -$68.3 bil
A significant increase in the advance goods deficit suggests that trade is off to a weak start in the fourth quarter.

Mexico
Employment Situation
Oct. 2017: 3.5% Unemployment
Unemployment dropped in October, as the holidays are approaching.

United States
FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index
Sep. 2017: 6.3%
The Federal Housing Finance Agency Purchase-Only house price index rose 6.3% in September on a year-ago basis, slightly slower than the previous month’s increase.

United States
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
Sep. 2017: 6.2%
Existing-home price appreciation accelerated again in the three months ended in September compared with the same period in August.

United States
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
Nov. 2017: 30
Manufacturers in the Richmond Federal Reserve District added to their 14-month expansion in November.

United States
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Nov. 2017: 129.5
Consumer confidence rose again in November, according to the Conference Board's index, gaining 3.3 points and rising to 129.5, its highest level since December 2000.

Japan
Retail Sales
Oct. 2017:

» VIEW MORE ECONOMIC INDICATORS

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