Economy.com Daily Update: November 3, 2022

Today's Economy

The central bank stays vigilant to bring inflation into the target range.

The Bank of England lifted its bank rate by 75 basis points.

Historically, the higher the rental vacancy rate, the slower rental inflation has been.

Commodity exports boosted the September trade surplus.

Commentary

Labor demand continues to exceed labor supply, or the labor force.

A more challenging macro environment looms.

The supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. labor market worsened in September, raising the risk of a hard landing for the economy.

A spike in retail energy prices pushed the preliminary year-over-year CPI for October into double digits.

Today's Economic Indicators

Malaysia
Monetary policy
Nov. 2022: 2.75%
Bank Negara Malaysia hiked its overnight policy rate by 25-basis points as we and the market expected, bringing the rate to 2.75%.

Switzerland
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2022: 3%
Switzerland’s inflation rate decelerated this October to 3% y/y from 3.3% in September.

Norway
Monetary Policy
Nov. 2022: 2.5%
The Norges Bank raised its main policy rate by 0.25%, to 2.5%, effective from 4 November.

Italy
Unemployment
Sep. 2022: 7.9%
Italy’s jobless rate held steady at 7.9% in September, even though month-on-month unemployment increased by 8,000, and by doing so it remained 2 percentage points below pre-pandemic values.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Sep. 2022: 6.6%
The euro zone’s unemployment rate inched lower to 6.6% in September from the upwardly revised 6.7% rate in August.

United States
Challenger Report
Oct. 2022: 33,843
Layoffs increased again in October, according to the latest report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas Inc.

United States
Jobless Claims
October 29: 217,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance remain historically low, reflecting a very low level of layoffs even as economic uncertainty increases.

United States
Productivity and Costs
2022Q3: 0.3%, q/q, SAAR
U.S. labor productivity rose an annualized 0.3% in the third quarter, softer than consensus expectations of 0.6% growth.

United States
International Trade (FT900)
Sep. 2022: -$73.3 bil
The U.S. deficit in goods and services trade widened by $7.6 billion, to $73.3 billion in September, from $65.7 billion in August (revised down from $70.5 billion).

Canada
International Merchandise Trade
Sep. 2022: C$1.1 bil
Canada's merchandise exports rose by 1.3% in August, ending two consecutive monthly declines.

Canada
Building Permits
Sep. 2022: -17.5% m/m
Building permits declined more in September than any month on record.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Nov. 2022: 3.0%
At the November meeting, the Bank of England stepped-up the pace of rate increases, raising the policy rate by 75 basis points to 3.0%.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Sep. 2022: 0.3% m/m
U.S. factory orders rose 0.3% from August to September, in line with consensus expectations.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 28: -1.71
Financial market stress increased last week with the St.

United States
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index
Oct. 2022: 54.4
The U.S. nonmanufacturing sector expanded in October for the 29th month in row, but the breadth of growth was narrower than in September.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 28: 107 bil cubic feet
Last week’s build in natural gas inventories exceeded analyst predictions, so this report could put some downward pressure on gas prices.

Australia
Datium Insights - Moody’s Analytics Used Vehicle Price Index
Oct. 2022: 8.6% y/y
Used-vehicle prices decreased for the fifth consecutive month.

Philippines
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2022:

Philippines
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2022: