Economy.com Daily Update: November 7, 2019

Today's Economy

We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.

We are keeping to our forecast of no cut in the next three to six months.

There have been some positive developments with regard to the U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit.

The man likely to become economy minister will eventually pursue populist policies that failed in the past.

Commentary

The U.S. consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse.

Third-quarter output and October employment surprised to the upside.

While U.S. homeownership has fallen and student debt has risen, the causal link is ambiguous.

The overall results of the latest exercise relative to a year ago are unmistakably positive.

Today's Economic Indicators

Germany
Industrial Production
Sep. 2019: -0.6%
German industrial production was worse than expected in September, decreasing by 0.6% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in August.

Italy
Retail Sales
Sep. 2019: 0.7%
Italy’s retail sales rose by 0.7% m/m in September, offsetting a revised 0.5% drop in the previous month.

Brazil
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2019: 2.54%
Brazil’s inflation continued to decline in October as a result of moderate price increases and the comparison base.

Chile
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2019: -US$307.1 mil
Chile’s foreign trade balance widened its deficit in October.

United Kingdom
Monetary Policy and Minutes
Nov. 2019: 0.75%
As expected, the Bank of England voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% in November.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2019: 3.02%
Mexico’s inflation remains around the 3% target in an environment of economic stagnation.

United States
Jobless Claims
November 02: 211,000
The labor market remains healthy, as jobless claims are very low.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
November 01: -1.32
Financial market stress declined in the week ended November 1, the fourth straight weekly decline.

United States
NAR Metro Prices
2019Q3: 5.1%
The sharp drop in mortgage rates in the first half of this year had a measurable effect on metro area home prices in the third quarter.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
November 01: 34 bil cubic feet
The increase in natural gas inventories was lower than analyst expectations, which will put some upward pressure on prices.

China
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2019:

United States
Consumer Credit (G19)
Sep. 2019: $9.5 bil
Consumer credit growth moderated in September, rising only $9.5 billion.