Economy.com Daily Update: November 9, 2021

Today's Economy

We look for the CPI to have risen 0.7% in October, boosted by energy and used-cars prices.

Despite this year’s solid recovery, GDP for the region will remain below pre-pandemic levels until early 2022.

Lifting of U.S. travel restrictions means more for getting back to normal than GDP.

An October survey of manufacturers put the average estimate for when bottlenecks will ease at eight months.

Commentary

The Delta variant caused global supply-chain problems to go from bad to worse in the third quarter.

A similar, although less drastic, story so far is unfolding throughout the Continent.

However, the economic recovery could be bumpy.

To better gauge the stress, we have identified and combined a range of high-frequency metrics to create an index.

Today's Economic Indicators

Sweden
Industrial Production
Sep. 2021: -0.2 % m/m
Sweden’s industrial production decreased by 0.2% m/m in September, slumping further after August's 1.3% decline.

United States
NFIB Small Business Survey
Oct. 2021: 98.2
Small-business optimism index has declined over the past few months, but it doesn’t justify an immediate change to the baseline forecast.

Mexico
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 6.24%y/y
Mexico’s inflation escalated above the upper limit as consumer prices realigned in October and underlying inflation rose.

United States
Producer Price Index
Oct. 2021: 0.6% m/m
The U.S.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
November 05:

Argentina
Industrial Production - Advance
Sep. 2021: 10.1% y/y
Industrial output in Argentina increased 10.1% year on year in September not seasonally adjusted, after 13.8% in the previous month.

South Korea
Employment
Oct. 2021:

China
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2021:

China
Producer Price Index
Oct. 2021: