Economy.com Daily Update: October 14, 2022

Today's Economy

Retail sales were unchanged in September and that nudged Q3 GDP lower.

Inflation is coming from elsewhere.

Consumer spending will add less than 1 percentage point to third-quarter growth.

The U.K. government will reverse parts of the mini-budget.

Commentary

The Central Bank of Chile tightened monetary conditions this month as inflation remains in the double digits.

Our October baseline forecasts a mild recession starting in next year's third quarter; the departure of the Chancellor and policy U-turn pose some upside risk.

Credit conditions are likely to tighten further, and there is still room for assets to contract.

Euro zone consumers continue to pull back on spending.

Today's Economic Indicators

Finland
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 8.1% y/y
Finland’s annual inflation rate climbed higher in September, accelerating to 8.1% year over year from 7.6% in August.

Finland
Retail Sales
Aug. 2022: 0.8% m/m
Finland's seasonally adjusted real retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, recovered by 0.8% m/m in August, partially reversing the downwardly revised 1.5% decrease in July.

France
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 5.6% y/y
France’s inflation rate eased to 5.6% y/y in September from 5.9% in August.

Spain
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 8.9% y/y
In September, Spain's consumer price index declined to 8.9% in yearly terms, after a 10.5% gain in August.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Aug. 2022: -€50.9 bil
The euro zone’s nonseasonally adjusted trade balance plunged to a deficit of €50.9 billion this August from a surplus of €2.8 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Austria
Employment and the Labour Market
Sep. 2022: 5.7%
The Austrian labour market showed little to no weakness in September, posting a decline in unemployment to 5.7% in September after a 5.9% reading in August. The pace of improvement picked up after a slight worsening in July and August where unemployment seemed to be on a steady rise.

Canada
Survey of Manufacturing
Aug. 2022: -2.0% m/m
Manufacturing continued to slide through August, marking its fourth straight month of falling sales.

Canada
Wholesale Trade
Aug. 2022: 1.4% m/m
Wholesale trade ticked up in August, reversing July's dip.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Sep. 2022: -1.2% m/m
U.S. import prices have fallen in excess of 1% for three consecutive months.

United States
Retail Sales
Sep. 2022: 0.0%, m/m
Retail sales were essentially unchanged in September.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
October 12: 91.3
The Moody’s Analytics Back-to-Normal Index climbed 0.8 point this week from a revised 90.5 to 91.3.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2022: 59.8
U.S. consumer sentiment remains very weak and near its historic low hit in June, according to the University of Michigan.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Aug. 2022: 0.8% m/m
Business inventories increased 0.8% from July to August.

World
Moody's Analytics Global CPI
Sep. 2022: 0.8% m/m
The Moody’s Analytics estimate of global inflation accelerated to 12% y/y in September from 11.9% in August.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2022Q2: 0.2% q/q SAAR
Global growth slowed sharply in the second quarter with soaring inflation pressures, persistently high commodity prices and continuing supply-chain hurdles.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Aug. 2022: 9.1% y/y
Manufacturing output in Colombia expanded at a solid pace in August supported by robust domestic demand conditions.

Argentina
Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2022: 83.0% y/y
Argentina's statistics office’s national consumer price index increased 6.2% m/m in September, compared with 3.5% a year earlier.