Economy.com Daily Update: October 2, 2020

Today's Economy

The hard part of the recovery is now underway with an enormous employment gap to fill.

As reopening has proceeded, non-salaried workers have powered the labor market recovery.

Owners of TikTok and WeChat have decided to explore other geographies to continue their business development and growth.

The effect of his positive status on the election is uncertain.

Commentary

Most countries will release September inflation numbers.

Brexit clouds the U.K. outlook.

There were troubling details in the September employment report.

Industrial activity is expected to have boosted Australia's exports.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Semiconductor Billings
Aug. 2020:

United States
Vehicle Sales - AutoData
Sep. 2020: 16.6 mil, SAAR
Estimates of U.S. unit vehicle sales from AutoData Inc. skyrocketed above expectations in September.

Japan
Consumer Confidence
Sep. 2020: 32.7
Japan’s consumer confidence index rose 3.4 points in September to 32.7 from 29.3 in August.

United States
California Manufacturing Survey
2020Q4:

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Sep. 2020: -0.3%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone CPI prices fell by 0.3% y/y in September, worsening the 0.2% decline in August and marking the lowest reading since spring 2016.

Brazil
Industrial Production
Aug. 2020: -1.0%
Brazil’s industry kept recovering in August, compared with the previous month, as the reopening advanced further and external demand recovered.

United States
Employment Situation
Sep. 2020: 661,000
Payrolls increased by less than expected by the consensus but close to our forecast of a 625,000 increase.

Russian Federation
GDP
2020Q2: -8.0%
Russian GDP took a predictable nosedive in the second quarter of 2020.

United States
ISM - NY Report
Sep. 2020: 56.1
New York City’s purchasing managers are seeing more improvement than they have at any point since not only the beginning of the pandemic, but in a year and a half.

United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
September 30: 80.3
After an encouraging boost in last week’s reading, the Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index moved sideways to close September, coming in at 80.3.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2020: 80.4
Consumer confidence turned higher in September, a bit of a surprise given that the economy seems to have gone flat.

United States
Factory Orders (M3)
Aug. 2020: 0.7%
Factory orders edged higher by 0.7% in August, marking a significant deceleration from growth of 6.4% in June and 6.5% in July.

United States
Monthly GDP
Aug. 2020: 0.7%
The U.S. recovery lost some momentum in August as our estimate of monthly real GDP rose 0.7% (not annualized).

Brazil
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2020: US$6.16 bil
Brazil’s trade surplus fell to $6.2 billion in September, below our forecast and the consensus.