Today's Economy

An agreement on U.S. fiscal stimulus seems closer, but the Senate will likely block it.

The implementation of aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures has prevented a deeper contraction so far.

Italy's current account surplus widened thanks to increases in goods and services.

The gap between the demand and supply sides of the economy is narrowing.

Commentary

A surge in COVID infections will prompt new but lighter lockdown measures.

Recovery will be determined by how effective governments are at managing the crisis.

The impact on consumption is positive, but it will have only a marginal effect on GDP.

We look for a modest gain in September housing starts, but the forecast anticipates some drag from the West Coast wildfires.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Survey
Oct. 2020: 25.3
The Philly Fed nonmanufacturing index rose from 20.4 in September to 25.3 in October, a signal that the nonmanufacturing sector’s recovery accelerated in the Third District.

United States
New Residential Construction (C20)
Sep. 2020: 1.415 mil
U.S. housing starts were a little disappointing in September, but permits and homebuilder sentiment suggest this is a temporary blip.

Russian Federation
Unemployment
Sep. 2020: 6.3%
The Russian labor market continues to take small steps in the right direction.

United States
Regional and State Employment
Sep. 2020:
The September job numbers for state and regional economies put the third quarter in the books, and the results show that while the labor market is making progress in most parts of the country, the pace is slowing heading into the final quarter of 2020.

United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
October 16: 348.1
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index jumped for the fifth consecutive week, from 327.1 to 348.1 in the week ended October 16.