| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Spending Trajectory Is Favorable But fading fiscal stimulus and rising COVID-19 cases will likely hurt consumption this quarter. Canada Weekly: The BoC Pivots to the Long Term The central bank announced a recalibration of the quantitative easing program. Europe Daily Briefing: Household Consumption Weakened in September Demand had already begun losing momentum by the end of the quarter. A Pattern Emerges in the Fed's MBS Holdings Prepayments are behind drops in the Fed's balance sheet at the end of the past few months. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
U.S. Road to Recovery: Still K-Shaped Third-quarter GDP jumped, but finances of those in the bottom half of the income distribution have been hit especially hard. Latin America Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 30, 2020 Economic data next week is likely to show further bifurcation among the region’s largest economies. Webinar Q&A: Final U.S. Election Model Update Questions ranged from the effect of the pandemic to a new Supreme Court justice on Tuesday's vote. Europe Weekly Highlights and Preview, 30 October, 2020 The BoE will likely hold off on stimulus until there is clarity on Brexit and the COVID-19 lockdown. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
Thailand
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2020: US$3.2 bil
Thailand’s trade surplus was US$3.2 billion in September, down from a US$5.4 billion surplus in August. Taiwan (Province of China)
GDP
2020Q3: 3.3%
Real GDP in Taiwan rose by 3.3% on a year-to-year seasonally adjusted basis in the third quarter. Germany
Retail Sales
Sep. 2020: -2.2%
Real, calendar and seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding motor vehicles dropped sharply in September, falling by 2.2% m/m after picking up unexpectedly by a downwardly revised 1.8% in August. Hong Kong
GDP
2020Q3: -3.4%
Hong Kong's economy is no longer in a technical recession despite lockdown measures enacted during the beginning of the third quarter due to a surge in COVID-19 cases in July. Italy
Unemployment
Sep. 2020: 9.6%
Italy's employment situation remained stable in September. Euro Zone
Preliminary GDP
2020Q3: 12.7%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone real GDP surged by 12.7% in the third quarter after an 11.8% q/q decline in the second. Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2020: -0.3%
Preliminary numbers showed that euro zone CPI prices fell by 0.3% y/y in October, the same as in September. Euro Zone
Unemployment
Sep. 2020: 8.3%
The euro zone’s jobless rate was unchanged at 8.3% in September from August’s upwardly revised rate, and up from 7.5% in September 2019. Chile
Employment
Sep. 2020: 12.3%
The jobless rate in Chile ticked down in the July-September rolling quarter, but the labor market remains in severe distress. Chile
Manufacturing Production
Sep. 2020: 5.3%
The national industry reported an annual rebound in September after contractions in previous months. Chile
Retail & Wholesale Sales
Sep. 2020: 6.3%
Chile’s retail and wholesale sales broke out during September, rising 6.3% y/y and beating our and the consensus forecasts for the second month in a row. Canada
Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
Sep. 2020: -0.1%
For the second straight month, oil prices fell, continuing to hold back prices for producers. Canada
Industry Output
Aug. 2020: 1.2%
Canada’s economic growth moderated in August. United States
Employment Cost Index
2020Q3: 0.5%
The labor market continued its rebound from the COVID-19 crisis in the third quarter, but the impact on employment costs will unfold more slowly and be modest relative to the devastating job losses earlier this year. United States
Personal Income
Sep. 2020: 0.9%
Personal income surprised to the upside in September. United States
PCE Deflator
Sep. 2020: 0.2%
Even though the economy has bounced back, a significant amount of slack remains and is weighing on inflation. United States
Personal Spending
Sep. 2020: 1.2%
Real consumer spending continued its rebound in September. France
Household Consumption Survey
Sep. 2020: -5.1%
France's household consumption of goods dropped 5.1% m/m in September, following a downwardly revised 2.2% gain in August. United States
Moody’s Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index
October 28: 82.7
The U.S. economic recovery is in limbo. United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Oct. 2020: 81.8
U.S. consumer sentiment added modestly to its September gains in October despite the economy barely growing. United States
Risk of Recession
Aug. 2020: 37%
The probability of the U.S. being in recession in the next six months fell from 41% in July to 37% in August. Colombia
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2020:
United States
Agricultural Prices
Sep. 2020: 0.9%
The Agricultural Prices Received Index rose 0.9% from August to September thanks to a respectable increase in the crop production index. China
Manufacturing PMI
Oct. 2020:
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