Economy.com Daily Update: October 31, 2024

Today's Economy

In September, the PCE deflator came in at 2.1% on a year-ago basis, a tick above the Fed’s 2% target.

The region is well positioned to begin a new expansion cycle next year.

The euro zone rate ticked higher again as oil prices rebounded from September's low.

We look for the economy to have added just 80,000 jobs on net in October.

Commentary

There are some revisions to the forecast at the U.S. subnational level, but the narrative is unchanged.

The major economies were a mixed bag in the third quarter; we still expect a slowdown.

Too much demand and too little supply are behind Australia's housing crisis.

The new government's bold fiscal plans have already prompted a rise in bond yields.

Today's Economic Indicators

World
Moody's Analytics Global Risk of Recession
Oct. 2024: 27.6%
World recession risks fell to 27.6% with data through August, indicating a low risk of global recession.

Hong Kong SAR (China)
GDP
2024Q3: 1.8% y/y
Advance estimates of third-quarter growth for Hong Kong came in at 1.8% year over year, well below market expectations.

Thailand
Foreign Trade
Sep. 2024: US$0.4 bil
Thailand’s foreign trade surplus expanded to $394.2 million in September from $264.9 million in August.

Germany
Retail Sales
Sep. 2024: 1.2% m/m
In September, Germany's retail sales grew by 1.2% month over month in real terms, a modest lift following recent trends.

Euro Zone
Preliminary Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024: 2.0% y/y
The euro zone’s harmonised index of consumer prices rose 2% y/y in October, according to preliminary estimates.

Italy
Unemployment
Sep. 2024: 6.1%
In September, Italy’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.1%, as employment and unemployment decreased amid higher inactivity.

Euro Zone
Unemployment
Sep. 2024: 6.3%
The euro zone unemployment rate inched lower to 6.3% in September.

United States
Challenger Report
Oct. 2024: 55,597
The U.S. labor market is holding steady.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Sep. 2024: 6.4%
Brazil’s unemployment rate continued to decline in September as the economy gained traction and created more jobs.

Canada
Earnings, Hours and Employment
Aug. 2024: 4.6% y/y
The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer changed little in August, increasing by a modest 13,500 positions after increasing 39,500 (0.2%) in July and declining 22,900 (-0.1%) in June.

Canada
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
Aug. 2024: -0.0% m/m
Real gross domestic product went unchanged in August.

United States
Jobless Claims
October 26: 216,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance have returned to normal more quickly than expected.

United States
Employment Cost Index
2024Q3: 0.8% q/q
The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024, in line with our expectations, as compensation growth continued to slow.

United States
Personal Income
Sep. 2024: 0.3% m/m
Incomes advanced in September, supported by a strong labor market.

United States
PCE Deflator
Sep. 2024: 0.2% m/m
As expected, inflation moderated in September.

United States
Real Personal Spending
Sep. 2024: 0.4% m/m
Real consumer spending growth improved in September and remains on a healthy trend.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
October 25: -0.40
According to the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
October 25: 78 bil cubic feet
Last week’s rise in natural gas stocks was lower than analyst predictions, but this report is unlikely to boost prices too much.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Oct. 2024: 9.75%
Colombia’s central bank board cut the reference interest rate by 50 basis points at October’s regular meeting, thus continuing the monetary relaxation cycle that started in December 2023.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Sep. 2024: -5.6% m/m

South Korea
Foreign Trade
Oct. 2024:

Indonesia
Consumer Price Index
Oct. 2024: