Economy.com Daily Update: September 15, 2022

Today's Economy

Thursday's data cut Q3 tracking from 1.7% to 1.1% at an annualized rate.

A little issuance rush ahead of Fed meeting.

Inflation and slower growth threaten the region’s positive trade benefits.

Wage growth data suggest that the ECB still has a lot of work to do.

Commentary

Lower-income households suffer more.

The U.S. president's plan will have only a marginal effect on growth and inflation in 2023.

The poverty rate held nearly steady.

Central banks are hiking rates as prices rise.

Today's Economic Indicators

Indonesia
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2022: US$5.76 bil
Indonesia’s foreign trade surplus in August easily exceeded expectations, reaching $5.8 billion.

Netherlands
Unemployment
Aug. 2022: 3.8%
The Dutch unemployment rate ticked up further to 3.8% in August.

Finland
Retail Sales
Jul. 2022: -1.2% m/m
Finland's seasonally adjusted real retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, decreased by 1.2% m/m in July, reversing the downwardly revised 0.8% increase in June.

France
Consumer Price Index
Aug. 2022: 5.8% y/y
France’s inflation rate eased to 5.8% y/y in August from 6.1% in July.

Euro Zone
External Trade
Jul. 2022: -€34.0 bil
The euro zone’s nonseasonally adjusted trade balance posted a deficit of €34 billion in July, worsening considerably on a €20.7 billion surplus in July 2021.

Canada
New Motor Vehicle Sales
Jul. 2022: -13.8% y/y
After three consecutive monthly increases, new motor vehicle sales fell 11.9% in July.

United States
Jobless Claims
September 10: 213,000
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits unexpectedly fell and continue to signal that the labor market is very strong, providing the Federal Reserve additional ammunition to aggressively hike interest rates later this month.

United States
Import and Export Prices
Aug. 2022: -1.0% m/m
U.S. import prices have fallen for two consecutive months, but this won’t deter the Federal Reserve from raising the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 basis points later this month.

United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Sep. 2022: -1.5
Rarely has a negative number looked as good as this month's top-line reading of -1.5 in the Empire State Survey.

United States
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Sep. 2022: -9.9
A surprise to the upside in August was followed by a dud in September.

United States
Retail Sales
Aug. 2022: 0.3%, m/m
Retail sales rose more than expected in August, but the gain was partly offset by a downward revision to July sales.

United States
Industrial Production
Aug. 2022: -0.2% m/m
U.S. industrial production declined 0.2% in August, in line with our forecast.

United States
Business Inventories (MTIS)
Jul. 2022: 0.6% m/m
Business inventories increased by 0.6% from June to July.

World
Moody's Analytics Global GDP
2022Q2: 0.5% q/q SAAR
Global growth slowed sharply in the second quarter with soaring inflation pressures, persistently high commodity prices, and continued supply-chain hurdles.

United States
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
September 09: -1.76
U.S. financial conditions improved for the first time in a month, with the St.

United States
Natural Gas Storage Report
September 09: 77 bil cubic feet
Working gas in underground storage rose by 77 billion cubic feet during the week ended September 9, exceeding expectations.

Colombia
Industrial Production
Jul. 2022: 5.2% y/y
Manufacturing output continued to expand in July, though at a slower pace.

United States
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Aug. 2022: 42.6 weeks, NSA
In August, new-vehicle affordability moved in the wrong direction for consumers once again.

Peru
Unemployment
Aug. 2022: 7.3%
The June-to-August rolling quarter was another rough one for the labor market.

South Korea
Employment
Aug. 2022:

Singapore
Foreign Trade
Aug. 2022:

China
Fixed-Asset Investment
Aug. 2022:

China
Industrial Production
Aug. 2022:

China
Retail Sales
Aug. 2022: