| Today's Economy
Economic Roundup: Taper Tease FOMC issues advance notice while Powell all but says tapering begins in November. Capital Market View: Powell’s Wink-Wink Moment Unless something goes wrong, tapering will begin in November. LatAm Daily Briefing: Stagnation in the Uruguayan Labor Market Labor numbers refuse to budge despite an industrial production boost. Europe Daily Briefing: Danish and Dutch Consumers Gain Confidence The consumer confidence index increased in September. » VIEW MORE TODAY'S ECONOMY
Commentary
Supply-Chain Disruptions Ding German GDP We estimate that real growth would have been 0.9% higher in the second quarter of 2021. U.S. Credit Outlook: Clouds Swirling The simultaneous removal of fiscal support and lender accommodations has the potential to push default rates past the baseline forecast. Playing a Dangerous Game With the Debt Limit A U.S. default would be a catastrophic blow to the nascent economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Entrepreneurship in the U.S.: Innovation out West The Moody’s Analytics Broad Based Startup Rate investigates the potential driver of business creation. » VIEW MORE COMMENTARY
Today's Economic Indicators
United States
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
September 17: 4.9%
Mortgage applications jumped by 4.9% in the week of September 17 following the previous week’s 0.3% increase and the 1.9% contraction the week before. United States
Moody's Analytics Inflation Expectations Pulse
September 19: 2.45%
Inflation expectations held steady in the week ended September 19, with the Inflation Expectations Pulse's 10-year benchmark series clocking in at 2.46% for the second week in a row. United States
Existing-Home Sales
Aug. 2021: 5.88 mil, SAAR
Existing-home sales dropped 2% in August to 5.88 million units annualized, reversing most of July’s gain, but remain elevated compared with their pre-pandemic pace. United States
Oil Inventories
September 17: 414.0 mil barrels
A slightly larger-than-predicted drop in crude oil inventories should provide some support for oil prices. United States
Moody’s Analytics Policy Uncertainty Index
September 17: 307.3 4-wk MA
The four-week moving average in our U.S. United States
FOMC Monetary Policy
Sep. 2021: 0% to 0.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee sent its long-promised advance notice on tapering its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases. Uruguay
GDP
2021Q2: 11.3% y/y
Brazil
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2021:
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