Economy.com Daily Update: September 27, 2019

Today's Economy

Spending was weak in August, but it's too early to panic.

If the slowdown persists, downside risk will outweigh upside potential.

Risks are uncomfortably high and rising as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

France’s economy is holding up, but Germany’s is falling off a cliff.

Commentary

On the Brexit front, things will be hectic.

The RBA and RBI are expected to cut rates next week; Japan's Tankan survey will remain weak.

A sustained oil price shock could limit central banks' ability to cut further.

Industry advances in Chile, but remains weak in Brazil and Argentina.

Today's Economic Indicators

United States
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
Aug. 2019: 3.30%
The Moody’s CMBS Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate continued its downward trend in August, falling 10 basis points to 3.3%.

France
Household Consumption Survey
Aug. 2019: 0.0%
France's household goods consumption held only steady in August, after it rose by 0.4% m/m in July.

Spain
Retail Sales
Aug. 2019: 0.2%
Spain’s retail growth momentum continued for a third consecutive month in August, increasing 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.

Euro Zone
Business and Consumer Sentiment
Sep. 2019: 101.7
The euro zone’s business and consumer sentiment index tumbled to 101.7 in September after ticking up to 103.1 in August.

Brazil
Employment Situation
Aug. 2019: 11.8%
Brazil's unemployment remained stable in August as the economy advanced gradually.

United States
Durable Goods (Advance)
Aug. 2019: 0.2%
New orders for durable manufactured goods rose 0.2% in August, their third consecutive increase.

United States
Personal Income
Aug. 2019: 0.4%
Nominal U.S. personal income was up 0.4% in August, in line with consensus expectations but a touch lighter than our forecast for a 0.5% gain.

United States
PCE Deflator
Aug. 2019: 0.0%
Inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% objective and given the downside risks to the outlook stemming from the slower global economy and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the potential for another rate cut in October remains alive.

United States
Personal Spending
Aug. 2019: 0.1%
Real consumer spending growth slowed more than expected in August.

Mexico
Trade Balance
Aug. 2019: US$775 mil
Mexico's trade balance turned positive in August, as imports contracted.

United States
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
Sep. 2019: 93.2
Consumer sentiment reversed a small portion of its huge August drop related to the flare-up in the trade war, according to the final reading from the University of Michigan.

Colombia
Monetary Policy
Sep. 2019: 4.25%
Colombia’s central bank board left the reference interest rate unchanged at its September meeting.

United States
Agricultural Prices
Aug. 2019: 0.8%
Agricultural prices increased 0.8% from July to August thanks to higher prices for both crops and livestock.