By Michael Shepherd - Nov. 8, 2022
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📷 A sign reminds residents to do their civic duty on Tuesday in Lewiston. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

Good morning from Augusta. Today is Election Day. Here's your guide to last-minute voting and here's your soundtrack.

What we're watching today

It is Election Day in Maine, where voters will decide one of the nation's few toss-up congressional races in the 2nd District, the high-profile race between Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage, tight battles for control of the Legislature and local races including a slate of reforms in Portland.

Here's a rundown of what to watch and what's at stake.

Here are the final arguments. Looking to stay busy with the outcomes locked in, Mills and LePage held their closing rallies in Lewiston and Scarborough, respectively, on Monday evening.

"Tomorrow, let's get out and let's all vote and let's send a clear message that we will be moving forward and we will not go back," Mills concluded at Dufresne Plaza in downtown Lewiston.

The former governor spoke to a raucous crowd at an American Legion hall in Scarborough. One man yelled, "Lock her up!" when Mills was mentioned, but LePage's closing argument was focused on policy and urging supporters to vote as part of a "silent majority" that he predicted would push him over the top.

"The media, the pollsters and the political pundits have had their way," LePage said. "Ladies and gentlemen, tomorrow, we will have our way."

Who's ahead? Mills is the favorite over LePage in a governor's race that nevertheless seems to have tightened in the past few weeks. Her smallest lead in a public poll so far has been 6 percentage points, but many in both parties think it will be tighter. FiveThirtyEight gives her an 88 percent chance of winning. That gives LePage roughly the same odds as an MLB player hitting a home run, so an upset is not out of the question.

The 2nd District is a confounding one. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, has led former Rep. Bruce Poliquin in every public poll, but his leads shrank over the past week into the error margins in line with a national shift toward Republicans. But Golden figures to benefit from ranked-choice voting if no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting on Tuesday.

Golden has split forecasters, with FiveThirtyEight giving him a 67 percent chance to win. Our election results partners at Decision Desk HQ are bearish on him, giving Poliquin a 74 percent chance. To keep his seat, he is going to have to hold off changes in the national environment running against him and win over a sizable share of LePage voters in his district.

Our data is less firm in the Legislature, where Democrats have spent three times more outside money than Republicans to cling to majorities. The forecasting site CNalysis tilts both chambers toward Democrats, but leaves the House more in the balance. Republicans are more bullish on their chances in the lower chamber, so that's probably the best bet for a flip.

Here's where to watch and what to remember as results come in. Along with DDHQ, we're watching 25 cities and towns closest for potential election night signals. They include Maine's classic swing city of Lewiston, which will be hotly contested in the big races, along with ones you might find more surprising, such as Winslow and Buxton.

We will be calling the big races in partnership with DDHQ. Follow the results. Remember that while other states will take days to count absentee ballots, the results released in Maine include those ballots. Aside from the likely ranked-choice count in the 2nd District, which would come next week, we're thinking that we will know outcomes in big races by early Wednesday.

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What we're reading

📕 While it's not so true anymore, this is how "As goes Maine, so goes the nation" became a famous political adage.

👊 An unlikely union of two legacy industries could help their bottom lines.

⛔ The embattled Down East district attorney has recused himself from prosecuting Eliot Cutler because the two share an attorney.

🚨 Hiring incentives are boosting recruitment at the Belfast police and fire departments.

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News and notes

📷 Gov. Janet Mills celebrates her victory at her election night party on Nov. 6, 2018, in Portland. (AP photo by Elise Amendola)

🎉 Here's where the candidates will gather on Tuesday night.

◉ Both Mills and LePage voted in their hometowns of Farmington and Edgecomb on Tuesday and will make swings to polling places before winding up at their election night parties in Portland and Lewiston.

◉ Mills and Democrats will rally at Aura, a music venue in downtown Portland.

◉ The spot for LePage and Republicans will be the Peck Building in downtown Lewiston, which houses party offices.

◉ Golden has no public election-night events planned. He will watch the results come in with family and staff in Leeds and is expected to address media in Lewiston if there is an outcome in the race.

◉ Poliquin will be at his normal location at Dysart's restaurant on Broadway in Bangor.

📮 The final pre-Election Day absentee ballot numbers are in.

◉ Nearly 225,000 Mainers cast absentee ballots as of Monday afternoon, with another 27,000 or so that could come back to clerks by the end of the day, according to data from the secretary of state's office.

◉ Democrats have dominated absentee voting, filing 49 percent of ballot requests to 24 percent for Republicans. So they probably have an effective lead going into Election Day, but Republicans should see a strong bump from in-person turnout.

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