Saint Elon has a nice ring to it | TSMC blurs the work-life balance |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for April 15th in 3:12 minutes.

🐰 We’re headed off on Easter break and normal service will resume on April 20th, but keep your eyes peeled for something special in your inbox on Monday and Tuesday.

Today's big stories

  1. Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter
  2. Our analyst has laid out how you can profit from the three biggest themes of this earnings season – Read Now
  3. Chipmaker TSMC notched record quarterly results

Man Of The Hour

Man Of The Hour

What’s Going On Here?

Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter on Thursday for $43 billion, as he dreams of a utopian internet where everyone can talk freely and openly – about him.

What Does This Mean?

Elon revealed two weeks ago that he’d bought a 9% stake in Twitter, which the company shortly followed with an offer of a spot on its board. But when he turned it down, analysts were quick to point out that the move would’ve limited him to a 15% stake, suggesting that he might want to launch a full-scale takeover. They were right: the world’s richest person – reportedly worth around $260 billion – offered to buy Twitter for $54.20 a share on Thursday (tweet this). That values the company at around $43 billion – 54% more than it was worth before Elon started investing. As for his intentions, he says Twitter needs to be taken private in order to make it a “platform for free speech around the globe.” God's work, Elon: the world's worst people have been too muzzled for too long.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Twitter’s backed into a corner.
Twitter’s shares jumped 12% on the news, but there’s a catch: Elon has said he lacks confidence in current management, and would reconsider his position as a shareholder if his offer wasn’t accepted. Let’s say we take him at his word (a big if): the sale of his stake would probably send Twitter’s shares plunging toward the low-30s they sat at before this whole saga. That leaves Twitter with a decision to make: accept the offer, or accept its shareholders’ wrath.

Zooming out: Morgan Stanley could do with the work.
Musk hired Morgan Stanley to advise him on the deal, and it might be glad of the business: the firm reported on Thursday that its investment banking business – the segment that advises on deals and initial public offerings – saw its revenue fall 37% last quarter versus the same time last year, and its total profit fall by 8%.

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Analyst Take

The Three Themes That Will Dominate This Earnings Season

The Three Themes That Will Dominate This Earnings Season
Photo of Carl Hazeley

Carl Hazeley, Analyst

This earnings season is going to be grimmer than the ones we’ve become accustomed to.

Companies in the key US stock market index are expected to have grown profits by an average of 5% on the same time last year – down from 27% last quarter, and 48% a year ago.

But by identifying the three big themes that are likely to dominate this season, you can still find a few diamonds in the rough.

Diamonds like consumer discretionaries: the US consumer discretionary index is down more than 12% this year, even though analysts have only cut their annual profit forecasts by 2% on average.

That suggests betting on a more resilient consumer – rather than one who’s going to wilt in the face of a recession – could be a profitable play.

So that’s today’s Insight: the three biggest themes of this earnings season, and the exchange-traded funds you can use to profit from them.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Factory, Sweet Factory

Factory, Sweet Factory

What’s Going On Here?

TSMC reported record results on Thursday, and the world’s biggest contract chipmaker only had to force its employees to live at work to make it happen.

What Does This Mean?

There’s an adage that you’re never more than six feet away from a rat, but TSMC’s chips are probably even closer: so high was demand for smartphones, TVs, and other gadgets last quarter that you’d find them everywhere. And the chipmaker made the most of that demand, albeit with some suspect compromises: it kept production running at its Chinese factories by having workers sleep on site, even as other companies – or as TSMC calls them, slackers – shut down in response to Covid-related restrictions. It was able to hike prices by as much as 20% too, in the company’s biggest-ever single increase. Put them together, and TSMC’s revenue and profit jumped 36% and 45% from the same time last year.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: How does TSMC like them apples?
The time between an order of chips and delivery hit almost 27 weeks across the industry last month, but TSMC wants to bring that down: it announced plans to spend up to $44 billion on upgrading existing facilities and building new ones in the US, Japan, and more this year. The chipmaker’s getting a taste of its own medicine on that front, mind you: it could be forced to wait at least 18 months for essential chipmaking equipment.

The bigger picture: Too much of a good thing.
Chip sales have been climbing 20% a month or more for almost a year now, but there’s no guarantee it’ll continue. For one thing, the synchronized decision of every chipmaker to build up stockpiles and boost manufacturing could lead to oversupply, while an increasingly likely economic slowdown could damage demand. That might be why an index tracking some of the world’s biggest chipmakers has underperformed the US stock market by 14% this year.

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💬 Quote of the day

“No need to hurry. No need to sparkle. No need to be anybody but oneself.”

– Virginia Woolf (an English writer)
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💰 Understanding Use Cases To Generate Crypto Wealth: 6pm April 20th

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đŸ‘·â€â™€ïž How To Protect Your Portfolio: 1pm April 21st
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🎙 Live Crypto Community Q&A: 5pm April 22nd
💾 Top Crypto Investing Strategies: 5pm April 25th
đŸȘ An Impact Investor’s Guide to Web3: 6pm April 28th
🎙 Live Crypto Community Q&A: 5pm April 29th
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đŸ’Ș How To Invest In Profitable NFT Drops: 6pm April 27th
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🎙 Live Crypto Community Q&A: 5pm April 29th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. American Psycho meets Hell’s Kitchen. Nothing says romance like 80s horror.
  2. Talk about hard time. It ain’t easy finding a job after a prison sentence.
  3. Art is boring now. We’ve become slaves to spoilers.
  4. Perfectionism is overrated. Here’s how to cope when you get things wrong.
  5. Fashion goes digital. Your next pair of shoes might only exist in the metaverse.
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