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Thursday, June 19, 2025
Coming back from Tommy John surgery and just hitting the ground running is a lot more difficult than we tend to think. Oh sure, in the long run, most guys tend to come back from Tommy John looking more or less like they did before the injury eventually, which can make it hard to remember how rocky the road back can be for a lot of guys.
We've gotten a lot of examples of that this season. Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily, Felix Bautista hasn't been the same dominant force, and Shane McClanahan hasn't even been able to get back on a mound after dealing with a separate arm injury; the jury is out on Eury Perez, but it hasn't been an overwhelmingly dominant first couple of starts back so far. All of those guys should be good Fantasy options in the future, but they haven't stepped on the mound and immediately dominated like we hoped and, frankly, expected. 
It's important to keep expectations in check for guys coming back from major injuries, in other words. And that's especially true for someone like Emmett Sheehan, who hardly has a track record comparable to any of those other guys, with just 60.1 innings of a 4.92 ERA to his name at the MLB level back in 2023. But he gave us an awful lot of reasons to get excited about with his season debut against the Padres Wednesday.
Making his first start since September of 2023, Sheehan only pitched four innings on 65 pitches, but he dominated in those four innings. He allowed one run on three hits, while striking out six and, perhaps most importantly (if you've been watching Alcantara closely), zero walks. 
Sheehan's velocity was basically right where it was prior to the injury – his changeup was notably up 2.5 mph, with a different movement profile that suggests it's an entirely new pitch – but the solid command was probably the biggest thing. It wasn't pinpoint control, but he generally did a good job keeping the fastball up and the changeups down; there were a few sliders in the middle of the strike zone, which led to some loud contact, so that's one place to improve in his next time out. 
Sheehan wasn't perfect, but he looked pretty good. He forced 10 swinging strikes on 65 pitches while flashing an impressive four-pitch mix, and that was coming off a rehab assignment where he struck out 21 in 11.1 innings of work. And, with the Dodgers' injuries in the rotation, there should be room for him to stick around for as long as he deserves it.
Is Sheehan a must-add pitcher coming off this start? I wouldn't go that far; the Dodgers are going to be careful with his workload, so I wouldn't expect many quality starts, which limits his upside in points leagues. And those tend to be shallower, with 12-team leagues typically rostering only around 250 players total. In deeper leagues than that, I'm looking to take a flier on Sheehan and the upside he has shown. Stick him on the bench for his next scheduled start in Colorado and let's see if he can build on it. 
Here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action around MLB
Thursday's waiver-wire targets
Chase Burns, SP, Reds (61%) – Burns made his second start at Triple-A Wednesday and continued to look like the very best pitching prospect in baseball. He racked up 17 whiffs on 88 pitches, while averaging 98.5 mph on his four-seamer and generating 12 whiffs on 24 swings with his slider. He has 14 strikeouts in his first 12.1 innings of work at Triple-A, and at this point, I'm just not sure he's going to be challenged until he gets to the majors. He has thrown 66 pitches this season after throwing 100 in college in 2024, so there should be plenty of runway for him to make it through to the end of the season, and the Reds really need him with Hunter Greene on the IL. I think we're going to see him before the All-Star break, and I know Scott White agrees with me – in his latest Prospects Report column, he has upgraded Burns to be the top pitching prospect to stash from the minors. 
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (74%) – It's all happening. Kurtz homered for the third time in four games Wednesday (he only had a double Tuesday) and has now homered eight times in his past 20 games. Kurtz was a hugely hyped prospect who got off to a slow start (wouldn't be the first), but the upside to be a difference maker has always been there, and it looks like he's figuring it out. I know being patient with young players when they struggle can be tough, but Kurtz is the kind of talent you should absolutely be buying into when it looks like he's figuring it out. And it does. 
Jo Adell, OF, Angels (52%) – As Jay Jaffe wrote on FanGraphs.com earlier this week, Adell is starting to figure it out . He showed flashes last season, but the underlying skill set looks even stronger so far this season, and the production is starting to catch up. He hit another homer Wednesday, his 12th since the start of May, a stretch during which he is hitting .240 (okay, that's not great) but with a .326 OBP and .547 slugging percentage, and even two steals. Adell is hitting the ball hard and has the lowest strikeout rate of his career, leading to a career-best .264 expected batting average. If he can get there while continuing to hit for power, there's some serious utility here. At least while he's hot, why not add him and see if it's for real?
Addison Barger, 3B, Blue Jays (60%) – Barger didn't homer Wednesday, but he did still manage a big game, going 3 for 4 with two doubles and a walk. And he did it while starting against a lefty, something the Blue Jays are letting him do more of lately as he continues to be a key part of their lineup. He is hitting .275/.335/.515 for the season, which is impressive enough, but his underlying numbers suggest he's actually deserved even better than that, thanks to a 93.7 mph average exit velocity and 51.2% hard-hit rate, truly massive numbers. It's still a limited sample size, but with the playing time concerns melting away with every extra-base hit, I just don't see much reason not to buy in, just in case this is for real. 
Wednesday's standouts
Kris Bubic, Royals @TEX: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – My concern level is relatively low, especially with 19 whiffs in this one, but that's a second iffy start in a row for Bubic, and I only note it because he's already thrown more innings than he did in 2023 and 2024 combined. The Royals haven't really talked about limiting Bubic's innings beyond just giving him an extra day or two of rest here and there, but the concern isn't just about his workload – it's also that he'll start to get fatigued and struggle to pitch as effectively. He was never going to sustain a sub-2.00s ERA, and even an extra run on top of his current 2.12 ERA would make Bubic a must-start pitcher, so I'm not too concerned right now. But I do want to keep an eye on Bubic's next couple of starts to see if there are any signs of fatigue, and I don't think the idea of trying to sell high on him as a top-20 SP, to be clear – is a bad idea. 
Ranger Suarez, Phillies @PHI: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – I think at this point we know the deal with Suarez: When he's locked in, he can be a Max Fried-level contributor, making up for what he tends to lack in strikeout upside with elite command and strong quality of contact suppression. The problem is he's never quite as good as he looks when things are going well, and things tend to fall apart for him eventually. That doesn't necessarily mean the same thing will happen this time, but I'll admit, my expectation is he'll slow down dramatically at some point. There might be a sell-high window here, but if you can't get, again, top-20 SP returns for him, I'm fine just keeping Suarez in my lineup until it falls apart. If it does this time. 
Bailey Ober, Twins @CIN: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Judging from comments I've seen, plenty of you are just about ready to give up on Ober for good. And with his fastball velocity down and his hip barking, I can't definitively say you shouldn't. But I will point out that from the start of April through the end of May, Ober had a 2.43 ERA and 3.23 FIP. As bad as the past few starts have been, he was a must-start pitcher for most of the season, and has been one in years past. I'm not ready to give up on him just yet, but I understand your skepticism. 
Taj Bradley, Rays vs. BAL: 1.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – I am ready to give up on Bradley, whose stuff has taken a clear step back this season without enough improvement in his command to make up for it. This was one of the worst starts of Bradley's season, but let's not forget that he entered this start with a 4.35 ERA and just 8.1 K/9, so it's not like he's been all that useful anyway. There will be good starts from Bradley in the future, but I just don't see much reason to believe they're going to be frequent enough to justify treating him as anything more than a streamer. 
Justin Verlander, Giants vs. CLE: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Verlander wasn't bad in this one. The strikeouts are good to see, and they came along with a solid 12 swinging strikes on 83 pitches. The problem is, when he wasn't missing bats, the Guardians hit him pretty hard, with 15 batted balls with an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph. For a first start back after a month, it was a solid performance from Verlander, but I think we need to see more than solid to go out and add him at this point. 
Mitchell Parker, Nationals vs. COL: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Parker had a 7.50 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his previous nine starts, but the Rockies are the cure for all that ails pitchers this season. Starting pitchers have now had 48 quality starts in 74 tries against them this season, with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 against them. That's basically what Shota Imanaga did last season when he finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting. I'm not sure there's a starter I definitely wouldn't at least consider streaming against the Rockies, at least away from Coors Field. 
Jack Kochanowicz, Angels @NYY: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – If Kochanowicz is missing bats, you know the Yankees are going through it. For someone who sits in the high-90s comfortably, Kochanowicz pitches to contact to an almost absurd degree, and this was just the first time all season he has had more strikeouts than innings pitched in a start while throwing more than four innings. It's a career-high in strikeouts by two, against a team that has been ice-cold all month. I think this one is a lot more about the Yankees than it is about Kochanowicz. 
Eric Lauer , Blue Jays vs. ARI: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – That's a great start, and Lauer is now down to a 2.29 ERA for the season, primarily as a bulk reliever. He's been an excellent pickup for the Blue Jays, and he even flashed some bat-missing ability in this one, with 12 swinging strikes on 75 pitches. His velocity is up a tick from where it was when we last saw Lauer in 2023, and it's worth remembering that he did have a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and was generally pretty useful in 2022. But that was a long time ago, and I'm not sure Lauer needs to be added in most leagues yet. I'll keep an eye on the starts in Cleveland and Boston next week, but I'm not adding him for the two-start week yet. 
News and notes
A second opinion confirmed Cole Ragans has a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder. He'll be shut down for two more weeks before re-evaluation. After this point, they'll see if he can start throwing. This feels like something close to a best-case scenario for Ragans, though even if all goes well, he's probably out until at least August. 
Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters Michael King will be out through next month's All-Star break. He's on the IL with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. 
Astros GM Dana Brown said Yordan Alvarez is experiencing a "day-to-day thing, he feels a lot better". I'm gonna be honest, I don't really know what to make of this one. He still isn't swinging a bat, but I guess maybe this means Alvarez could be cleared to begin swinging any day now? I'll believe it when I see it after last year's Kyle Tucker injury. 
Bryce Harper has improved strength and range of motion in his wrist and is getting close to throwing.
Shane McClanahan received "very good" news from a nerve specialist this week and should resume throwing off a mound soon. It sounds like he could actually have a chance to make an impact this season, though we're still probably looking at an August return, and who knows what we'll actually get from him if we get to that point. 
Luke Weaver could skip a rehab assignment and rejoin the Yankees later this week. I'd guess they will stick with Devin Williams as the closer if he doesn't melt down, but Weaver remains worth stashing just in case they turn it back over to him. At least for the next week or so. 
Bryan Reynolds was placed on the paternity list, which means he'll miss 1-3 games.
Max Scherzer recorded eight strikeouts over 4.1 shutout innings in his second rehab start Wednesday. He built up to 75 pitches, and his next start could come in the Blue Jays rotation. I think he can still get hitters out, but I'm not sure I trust Scherzer's body to hold up at this point. He's a decent waiver-wire target, but I wouldn't prioritize him over Burns or Sheehan. 
Gabriel Moreno has missed three straight with a sore right hand.
Josh Smith has missed two straight due to a minor left hamstring strain. They're hopeful he'll avoid the IL.
Cody Bradford could be ready to return by early July, while Jon Gray could be back in late July. Neither is worth stashing in all but deeper leagues at this point, but I could see Bradford, especially, being pretty useful when he's ready. 
Max Meyer is set to visit a hip specialist. He's missed most of June with a left hip impingement.
Michael McGreevy will be called up to start Game 2 of the Cardinals' doubleheader on Thursday. In 12 starts at Triple-A, McGreevy has a 2.51 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9, but he's not much more than a name to watch until there's a long-term rotation spot for him. 
 
 
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