| Even in the deeply unstable world of UK politics, this week was one for the record books. In the coming days, Britain may have yet another Tory leader after embattled Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned just 44 days in. Candidates to replace her include Rishi Sunak, who she beat in the last Conservative leadership race, and Boris Johnson, who was forced out before her similarly ill-fated turn at the wheel. UK bond traders (who helped topple Truss) are warning the next leader must exercise fiscal discipline to shore up the country’s fragile finances. But there are other developments that could unsettle investors who dumped the pound and government bonds after Truss rolled out her widely-panned economic agenda. The UK Treasury may be forced to delay its long-awaited Oct. 31 fiscal plan, adding more political risk to an event that had become crucial for markets and the Bank of England. The Tories, John Authers argues in Bloomberg Opinion, have brought “endless anarchy” to the UK. “Britain will suffer in austerity and limbo waiting two years for a general election.” A US recession over the next 12 months is all but inevitable, according to a model by two Bloomberg economists. However, a separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists earlier this month predicts the probability at only 60%. Contraction risks have been raised by tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations the Federal Reserve will press ahead with rate hikes. Meantime, American stockpiles of distillate fuel are exceptionally low, which could mean higher costs for everything from trucking to farming to construction, and heating in the Northeast. Javier Blas writes in Bloomberg Opinion that such shortages may force President Joe Biden to intervene, given approaching midterm elections.  President Joe Biden assailed Republicans for potentially considering using the US debt limit as leverage to cut social safety net programs like Social Security and Medicare. The Democrat said Friday he will “not yield” to such demands should the GOP win majorities in Congress. Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA A senior NATO official confronted a Chinese diplomat over Beijing’s failure to condemn Russia’s eight-month war on Ukraine, injecting more tension into a conference about the Arctic. The Kremlin’s invasion has also intensified a race among great powers for ascendancy in the the north, with potentially dire consequences for the planet. Ukrainians are facing rolling blackouts after Russian attacks destroyed about one third of their power stations, Kyiv authorities said. Launched against infrastructure and civilians as Kremlin forces lose ground to Ukraine’s soldiers, some of the destruction has been perpetrated by Iranian drones. At home, Russia’s longstanding demographic decline is worsening, first from Covid-19 and now from Vladimir Putin’s war. But the Russian leader, with his repeated nuclear threats, is focused on a broader agenda, writes Andreas Kluth in Bloomberg Opinion. He has “kicked off a new and global arms race,” Kluth says.  Flames rise following a Russian drone attack in Kyiv on Oct. 17. Photographer: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images Xi Jinping used his widely watched speech at the Communist Party Congress to assert the “wheels of history” are rolling toward “China’s reunification” with Taiwan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the comments indicate China is on a faster timeline to attempt a forcible seizure of the island democracy. Xi, with an unprecedented third term in the offing, is raising concerns of a Mao Zedong-style personality cult. But not all Chinese are happy with his authoritarian government, given the slogans posted in Beijing and other cities calling for elections. Need to refuel your car, grab some milk and maybe some marijuana? Green Thumb Industries, one of the largest US cannabis producers, signed a deal with Circle K, the global convenience-store chain, to sell pot at its Florida gasoline retailers. If you’re looking for higher-end coffee than in your average gas station, this New York City spot offers only $5 “pour-overs,” no matter the variety.  Compilation Coffee in Manhattan’s East Village. Source: Bloomberg - Tech, bank and energy earnings in Europe amid grim outlook.
- The ECB announces its latest rate decision.
- China Party Congress wraps up with Xi expected to get third term.
- Data on US GDP and the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, core PCE.
- India celebrates Diwali, one-hour window of Muhurat trading.
There are more gunmakers than ever in the US and some manufacturers have developed a new business model to stay ahead of regulation. Small gun firms are proliferating and producing AR-15 style rifles, common in mass killings of adults and children across America, that bypass bans passed by states. Licenses for these manufacturers have skyrocketed.  There are more gunmakers in America than ever. Some stand out by making AR-15-like rifles that outmaneuver regulators. Source: Bloomberg Get Bloomberg’s Evening Briefing: If you were forwarded this newsletter, sign up here to get it every Saturday, along with Bloomberg’s Evening Briefing, our flagship daily report on the biggest global news. Chief Future Officer Briefing: The role of the chief financial officer continues to evolve as conditions warrant hyper responsiveness to changes in the business environment and economy overall. Join us for the Chief Future Officer Briefing: The Next Generation CFO in New York or virtually on Oct. 25, where we will examine how companies and financial leaders are adapting to economic volatility and technological innovation. Register here. | 
