Nr. 459 | 23.07.2024

Maduro vs. Gonzalez: How Sunday’s Election Could Shape Venezuelan Migration

All eyes are on Venezuela as the country approaches a potential turning point for the first time in over a decade with presidential elections coming up this Sunday. The current authoritarian president Nicolás Maduro, who was elected in 2013, faces a serious challenge from the opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. Although Maduro promised fair and free elections by signing the Barbados Agreement last October, many doubts have been raised with signs indicating that Maduro may use corrupt means to secure a win. 

Under the current regime, nearly eight million Venezuelans - a quarter of the population - have left the country due to corruption, political crisis and economic mismanagement, leading to one of the world's largest displacement crises. What would happen to Venezuelan migration flows in either of those two election outcomes? Experts believe that a regime change would drastically alter migration flows, as many citizens are eager to return home. Conversely, if Maduro manages to retain power, the possibility of a fraudulent election would lead to more frustration and anger, prompting more people to migrate to other countries.
Many are likely to head for the U.S., where Venezuelans have been the second largest group of migrants in recent years. The flow of migrants is expected to peak during the final phase of the U.S. presidential election. Migration is already a burning topic in this election. It will be interesting to see how another Maduro term could affect the dynamics of the U.S. elections and how the various election results will influence migration patterns.

Anja Ihle

Explore further:

• A Second Independence Day? Scenarios for Venezuela's July 28 Election, CSIS
• Konflikt zwischen Venezuela und USA: Maduro bewegt sich doch, Tagesanzeiger
• Venezuela: L'opposition dénonce une«escalade» répressive avant l’élection, Le Matin