| | | Good afternoon. Trump is officially presenting at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference. We’ll be there too. Hit us up if you’re in town. | Today’s Stories:
🟥 Trump’s pro-crypto army end-goal?
🚀 ETH ETF season begins
🤫 SEC stays scheming | Today's newsletter is 1,212 words, a 6-minute good read. |
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Bitcoin Role China America |
Earlier this year, we covered how bitcoin was playing a pivotal role in this year’s election by highlighting the stark differences between the two party’s stances on cryptocurrency. |
In the piece, we explained that as more and more Americans own crypto, the Biden administration’s crackdown on the asset would drive voters into the arms of Trump and the Republican party. |
And while that may be true, in reality Biden’s dismal debate performance (among many other things) will have more to do with Trump winning than Bitcoin alone. |
But, what may have started as Trump leaning into crypto as an antithesis to Biden, has turned into a full-throated love for the asset class. |
Furthermore, the presumptive 2024 president is beginning to see the asset class as a way to keep a lead over China. |
Here for example is what Trump had to say this week in an interview with Bloomberg: |
I remember when you said it was a “fraud” and “a disaster waiting to happen.” And by the way, you were not wrong. There have been disasters and fraud. But more recently, you’ve embraced the community. You said it should be made in the USA. So tell me why you changed your mind. If we don’t do it, China is going to pick it up and China’s going to have it—or somebody else, but most likely China. China’s very much into it. Also, it’s not going away. It’s amazing… Now, if I throw it aside, it’s going to be picked up in another country, most likely China—they’re pretty advanced in that sphere. So you have to look at it—what I want, again, is what is good for the country… So we have a good foundation. It’s a baby. It’s an infant right now. But I don’t want to be responsible for allowing another country to take over this sphere. And so I think we’re going to be good. Also, I’ve gotten to know people in the industry, they’re top-flight people. And you ask Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon was, you know, very negative and now all of a sudden he’s changed his tune a little bit. | | | | Source |
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So, why is he worried about this when China banned bitcoin mining and trading in 2021? |
Well, reports have begun emerging that China may be on the precipice of flipping their decision and not only allowing the trading of crypto but actually encouraging it. It seems that just as the US doesn’t want to cede to China, China doesn’t want to cede to the US. Classic game theory. |
In the end, this is how bitcoin may just win – as a must have. |
| Richard Nixon Foundation @nixonfoundation | |
| “Even though I'm a pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin maximalist person, I do wonder whether if at this point Bitcoin should also be thought of in part as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.” says @PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel. More on cryptocurrencies from The #NixonSeminar: | | | | 8:29 PM • Apr 7, 2021 | | | |
| | 2.5K Likes 917 Retweets | | 341 Replies |
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Spot Ether ETFs Set To Begin Trading Next Week |
On Monday, the SEC gave preliminary approval to at least three of the eight asset managers hoping to launch ETFs tied to the spot price of ether to begin trading next Tuesday, on July 23rd. |
The “official” approval hinges on applicants submitting final offering documents to regulators before the end of this week. In similar fashion to the BTC ETF debut, all eight will most likely launch simultaneously. |
While this has been a long time coming and expected, the news was still enough to push ETH +7% on the day. |
Looking Ahead
The experts, as you can imagine, are currently predicting all sorts of market impacts once the ETFs go live – from “choppy waters” in the first few trading sessions, to $5,000 ETH napkin-math predictions by year-end. |
The one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that inflows don’t need to reach the level of BTC ETFs to be considered successful. |
| Chris Burniske @cburniske | |
| As we approach $ETH ETF season the thing to question is not whether flows will match the $BTC ETF flows on an absolute basis, but rather, on a liquidity and network value adjusted basis, will the flows into the Ethereum ETFs be greater or less than what we saw with Bitcoin. | | | 4:42 AM • Jul 16, 2024 | | | |
| | 634 Likes 80 Retweets | | 141 Replies |
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Now, Some Bad News |
One eyebrow raising regulatory event was swept underneath the headlines this week, highlighting the political absurdity behind the SEC... |
In what was viewed as a big bummer from industry proponents, the House recently failed to overturn President Biden’s veto on the crypto accounting policy SAB 121. |
What this means: The controversial accounting guidance will remain in force, preventing banks in the US from providing crypto custody services… which, essentially, holds the industry back and even hurts consumers. |
SEC then decides to warm up: After the failed overturn attempt, the SEC then tried to become the good guys by “relaxing” their stance on the matter. Bloomberg Tax reported the SEC would allow some exceptions, opening a path for banks and brokerages to bypass controversial crypto accounting guidance. |
Is it better than nothing? Sure. But critics argue the final outcome is even worse. And we tend to agree… |
| gyges.uni.eth 🦄 @mud2monarch | |
| This may get drowned out by current events, but the SEC's SAB 121 "out" exemplifies all of the worst practices of the current SEC. Here's why 👇 A reminder on the problem (skip if you know this part) SAB 121 could be a reasonable requirement on its face. Custodying crypto is… x.com/i/web/status/1… | | | | 1:29 AM • Jul 12, 2024 | | | |
| | 210 Likes 56 Retweets | | 10 Replies |
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Instead of repealing SAB 121, or working with Congress or banking regulators to amend it, the SEC has essentially decided to approve individual firms on an ad hoc basis. |
In other words, after all of the drama and bipartisan support against this bill to begin with, the SEC will now get to go above the law… give one-off green-lights behind closed-doors… and pick and choose its own winner-and-losers. |
Welcome to America, I guess – where we implement dumb policies our authorities don’t even follow and use only to yield more control. |
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| #Bitcoin is growing faster than the internet. | | | | 5:40 PM • Jun 20, 2024 | | | |
| | 1.58K Likes 370 Retweets | | 111 Replies |
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