| | Good afternoon. Your team at CoinSnacks is considering switching up our newsletter format a bit. We’ve been writing the same weekly email for over 5 years now — mixed with quick news, long reads, and opinions. So in the spirit of help us help you, please answer the question below: | Would rather have CoinSnacks produce… | | Today’s Big Stories: 🚀 ETH Goes Nuclear on ETF News 💸 The Safest Way to Bet on Crypto? | Today's newsletter is 1,182 words, a 7-minute good read. |
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Ethereum Price Spikes on High Likelihood of ETF Approval |
Just when we all thought the chances of an ETH ETF approval would be near impossible before election, rumor of the SEC taking a complete 180 on the matter shook the markets earlier this week. |
What happened: On Monday, the SEC started abruptly asking exchanges to update their amended filings “on an accelerated basis.” The news came as a complete surprise from both asset managers and investors alike leading Bloomberg ETF analysts @EricBalchunas and @JSeyff to increase their odds of an SEC approval from 25% to 75%. |
Around the same time, the world’s largest predictions market saw a jump in odds from 10% to 69%. |
| Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas | |
| Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See… x.com/i/web/status/1… | Nate Geraci @NateGeraci SEC decision deadline this week on spot eth ETFs… SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) & S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch. Technically possible for SEC to approve 19b-4s & then slow play S-1s (esp given reported lack of engagement here). |
| | May 20, 2024 | | |
| 8.46K Likes 2.33K Retweets 645 Replies |
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And thats just about when the market went gangbusters… |
ETH has itself a day: On the news, ETH prices skyrocketed, smashing short sellers on the way up, while earning its largest daily price candle in history (16.7%) moving from $3,143 to $3,665. |
| Ethereum price is rallying... Some quick $ETH stats based on @coingecko historical open/close data I just pulled... 📈 Yesterday (5/20/24) saw the biggest 24-hour gain (19.05%) since May 2021 📊 This 19.05% jump is the 4th-best daily gain for $ETH from Jan 2018 to May 2024 | luke @lukesidney_ When was the last time $ETH was up over 20% in a single day? |
| | May 21, 2024 | | |
| 2 Likes 1 Retweet 2 Replies |
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On the SEC pivot: By now you may be wondering… why is the SEC making a sudden pivot, just days before the deadline? And the answer is as clear as day: It’s all a political thing. It’s to sway votes. |
| With the speed of a potential $ETH ETF being approved a question emerges: Is the Biden administration looking for quick political points with crypto voters? Or is this a symbol of an emerging acceptance of crypto in DC? | | May 21, 2024 | | |
| 2 Likes 2 Retweets 1 Reply |
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As we wrote last week, crypto has become one big political issue, thanks to Trump taking a pro-crypto stance on the heels of the Biden admin going full anti-crypto. The SECs sudden pivot is seemingly a last-ditch effort from Team Biden to appeal to crypto enthusiasts like us. |
What's next? Revisions will likely delay the approval a bit, but the chances of an eventual launch are looking better by the day. The first step is approving all 19b-4s19b-4's (where we're at now), and then come the S-1s. |
| UPDATE: It's happening. We have at least 5 of the potential #Ethereum ETF issuers that have submitted their Amended 19b-4's in the last ~25 min. Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco/Galaxy, Ark/21Shares, & Franklin all submitted via CBOE. | | | May 21, 2024 | | |
| 5.48K Likes 1.18K Retweets 216 Replies |
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Our Thoughts: Going into this week, I had a post almost ready to publish highlighting how out-of-favor Ethereum has been since the new bull market. |
With slim ETF approval chances (at the time), the ongoing emergence of Solana, and the ETH/BTC ratio at a three-year low, it was beginning to feel like the perfect time for contrarians and long-term thinkers to smash the buy button. |
Before hitting publish, though, the SEC rumors emerged. |
But here’s the deal – my stance doesn’t change at all. The ETH/BTC ratio is still in the red YTD, Vitalik is still building furiously, and Vaneck just put an $11.8k price target on the asset. |
ETH prices aren’t even close to being priced in if the approval goes through. We just saw a huge pump, but inflows from institutions hauling in an asset that is technically now deflationary should have a larger impact. |
Will ETH prices pop after an “official” approval, similar to BTC? Our assumption is yes. |
Will ETH prices pop after the “official” launch? I’m not quite sure, but thanks to what we learned from bitcoin ETFs, we now know it will largely depend on inflow data. There’s also a chance we’ll see investors rotating out of Grayscale’s ETHE, which could limit the initial upside. |
Either way, it’s hard not to be bullish on Ethereum right now. |
Perhaps more importantly, the SECs pivot has opened a new door for us investors… |
Seeing both sides of the political spectrum (all sides if you include RFK) taking action to finally appeal to American’s with crypto is refreshing. A political race to greenlight crypto and provide desperately needed regulatory clarity is now an emerging narrative that shouldn’t be overlooked. |
Related: The White House just issued perhaps the most positive statement on crypto, ever. |
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An Under-appreciated Way to Play the Growth of the Crypto Industry |
We all know that the introduction of bitcoin ETFs was a watershed moment for the crypto industry – validating a technology 10-plus years in the making. |
But while investing in cryptoassets may be the highest performing way to invest in crypto over the long run, it may not be the most sustainable. |
Sure, Bitcoin is here to stay, but how does one make a directional yet risk-averse bet on the other approximately 20,000 crypto-assets in existence? |
One way—as we have explained ad nauseam in this rag—is through backdoor crypto-native investments, such as Coinbase. |
For long-term investors, though, taking a single bet on a transformational asset class is the cause for alarm. While Coinbase is obviously a great investment in today's context, any number of problems (regulation being the foremost) could easily lead to volatility. |
But what if there was a way to invest in the longterm success of the crypto industry while also removing any of the potential risk? |
Our latest post explores this question and one potential solution. |
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| Ryan Rasmussen @RasterlyRock | |
| Biden: We plan to veto crypto bill Trump: I’m building a bitcoin army Biden: We will not veto crypto bill | | May 22, 2024 | | |
| 3.19K Likes 454 Retweets 105 Replies |
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| A crypto rising tide should lift all boats, right? Don't tell that to $BKKT shareholders who even with ETF approvals and ATH's are still down 55% over the past year. Meanwhile $COIN is up 280% over the last year. x.com/i/web/status/1… | | | May 22, 2024 | | |
| 1 Like 0 Retweets 0 Replies |
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