Dear readers,
Welcome to EU Elections Decoded, your essential guide for staying up to date and receiving exclusive insights. This is Max Griera, writing from the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) Council in Luxembourg. Subscribe here.
In today’s edition
- From leadership struggles to awkward friendships and meticulous vote-counting, here are the main European Parliament political groups’ post-electoral headaches.
- Bits of the week: Top job negotiations start in G7, name puzzle close to solved; EU election observers’ conclusions.
After the hangover of Sunday’s election night, freshly elected members of the European Parliament (MEPs) rushed to the European Parliament to reconvene with their political groups. From leadership struggles to awkward friendships and meticulous vote-counting, here are their post-electoral headaches.
ID continues to court the ECR
France’s opposition leader Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National), Dutch government leader Gert Wilders (PVV), Portuguese far-right chief André Ventura (Chega), and Italy’s Matteo Salvini, head of Lega, along with other far-right leaders, met in Brussels, 12 June, to take stock of the election results, plotting the future of far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) party.
The talks were meant “to lay the foundations for a broad centre-right alliance without socialists and eco-extremists,” said Salvini before the meeting, echoing recent months discussions of a big alliance with the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament.
Before the meeting, Ventura told to our Sofia Sánchez Manzanaro: ”there have also been talks between ID and the European Conservative Party [ECR], with the idea of forming a large European bloc on the right.”
… but ECR is looking elsewhere, for now
In their first group meeting after the EU elections, the ECR welcomed newly elected MEPs to the group, which now controls 77 seats.
“We expect to be an important part of a new centre-right majority in the next European Parliament,” the group’s co-president Nicola Procaccini said, looking at the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP).
But certain members of the ECR are wary of who to let in, especially national delegations that are more ‘moderate’ and closer to the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), after welcoming the controversial French party Reconquete.
“ECR will definitely seek new members, however, we will accept only candidates with a similar program, that means – realistic position towards Green Deal, support for better competitiveness of the EU and pro-Ukrainian position,” MEP Veronika Vrecionová, leading lawmaker of Czechia’s ODS, told Euractiv.
ODS previously threatened to quit ECR if Fidesz joined, over disagreements on support to Ukraine. Vrecionová’s requirements are also a red line to many far-right ID members, which are considered to have pro-Russia views.
Along those lines, MEP Assita Kanko, of Belgium’s conservative party NVA, said on election night that ECR does not necessarily need to massively expand to be “powerful”, but rather ensure the quality of the members, “who work hard.”
On the other hand, national parties such as Vox (ECR) would like to work closer with their Iberian colleagues from Portugal’s Chega (ID), and Poland’s PiS, one of the leading parties within ECR, has made it very clear on several occasions that they want to welcome Fidesz to ECR.
EPP counting votes, one by one
While the election-winner centre-right EPP made it clear they will seek to form a coalition with Socialists and Liberals, they will likely need a few extra votes to confirm their candidate for the Commission presidency, Ursula von der Leyen.
Needing 361 votes, with the Socialists and Liberals they will have 403 – a tight majority, especially as some factions within each of the groups have expressed direct rejection of von der Leyen, such as France’s Les Républicains (EPP), and Germany’s FDP (Renew).
The main question for the EPP will be whether to officially enter negotiations with the Greens, or seek votes from ‘moderate’ sections of the hard-right ECR, such as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli D’Italia and Czechia’s ODS.
… and more mouths to feed
As MEPs of the parliamentary groups are busy dividing up posts, a big chunk of the most powerful roles are expected to go to the EPP and its dominant German wing (CDU/CSU).
Naturally, the Germans have set their eyes on key committees for the next mandate – economic affairs, industry, agriculture, foreign policy, and potential new additions such as defence, a senior source from the German delegation told Euractiv.
The senior source added, however, that the EPP’s now larger Spanish and Polish delegations will mean less CDU/CSU influence than the last term, when Germans took the lead in four committees. Influential jobs will now need to be split up proportionally, Euractiv’s Berlin politics reporter Nick Alipour writes.
After losses, Greens hang on to “pragmatism” to remain influential
The Greens have lost big time in these elections, losing around 20 seats, down to 53 seats. Though expected to welcome new members in the coming days from the non-affiliates, their new reduced size threatens to undermine their influence in the parliament.
But by negotiating with the EPP and giving their backing to von der Leyen, they are hoping to have influence over the next mandate’s agenda –and they are ready to give major concessions for it.
“We have been clear we want to continue on the Green Deal, but obviously if you start negotiations, you are not going to get 100% of what was in the green program, and we are aware of that,” Greens’ co-president Terry Reintke told the press on Wednesday.
“Now we are ready to become part of this majority because we see the danger if the majority would move to the right. We are ready to compromise, we are pragmatic politicians,” she added.
… two roosters in one coop: Sinkevicius and Eickhout
Besides Terry Reintke there is another co-presidency position up for grabs.
First off, Bas Eickhout was one of the two leading candidates spear heading the European Greens’ campaign, and he is now seen as a favourite for the job. His party in the Netherlands, GroenLinks, in coalition with the Dutch Socialists PvdA, managed to score an 8-seat win and beat the far-right PVV.
“I have seen his performance, I think he was extremely strong in the debates. Bas would be a good candidate for the group leadership,” Daniel Freund, a leading German Green MEP, told Euractiv on election night.
Asked by Euractiv on election night, Eickhout commented: “I will come back to you on that, next week.”
But there is another giant ready to take a leadership position.
Incumbent Commissioner for Environment Virginijus Sinkevičius, elected MEP with his Lithuanian Green party DSVL, is expected to be one of the new leading figures within the group, either as the co-president, or one of the Parliament’s vice-presidents, or as a committee chairman.
“It’s a powerful MEP we’re having here,” Greens’ leader Terry Reintke told the press on Wednesday.
Socialists’ Southern feud incoming
As the biggest delegation, the Spanish Socialists (PSOE) have held the Parliament’s Socialist group (S&D) leadership during the last five years, with Iratxe García at the helm.
But the Spanish hegemony ended Sunday, as the Italian Socialists (Partito Democratico) came on top with 21 seats.
While García’s associates are confident she will be able to stay on as group president, it is usually the case the biggest national delegation holds the leadership. Influential Italian MEPs, such as Stefano Bonaccini, who got the most votes in Italy, or the AI’s rapporteur Brando Benifei, could be in contention.
The formal talks for the group’s composition and leadership will start next week Tuesday (18 June) and will end with a vote to elect the president on 25 June.
Renew’s losses spur soul-searching
As of Monday afternoon (10 June), with European elections results close to final, the liberal Renew Europe group claimed a net loss of 23 MEPs, from 102 to 79, including 10 from the French delegation.
Looking at the results, the ALDE party, bringing together a majority of national delegations, confirmed its intention to challenge France’s leadership at a leaders meeting in Brussels on Tuesday (11 June).
Though ALDE initially published a statement expressing “we are prepared to propose a candidate to lead the group and offer a strong leadership for the next mandate,” later on the party backtracked, deleting the sentence from their website, and reaching out to Euractiv to say “no decision on this was taken.”
The liberals are also seeking to boost their numbers with new members, such as by allying with the five newly elected Volt MEPs, currently associated with the Greens.
The Left’s awkward relationship with Sahra Wagenknecht
After much speculation, The Left group members voiced again on Thursday they will not let Germany’s new left-conservative party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and its six seats join its ranks during a leaders meeting, sources confirmed to Euractiv.
But BSW’s main priority has always been to create their own group, which they claimed in May they had found enough support for, implying that national delegations currently within The Left could jump ship to join them.
