| Dear readers, Welcome to EU Politics Decoded, brought to you today by Magnus Lund Nielsen with reporting from Nicoletta Ionta. EU Politics Decoded is your essential guide for staying up-to-date with the Brussels bubble. Subscribe to Politics Decoded here. In today’s edition Don't draw blood: MEPs cautious of delicate equilibrium going into commissioner hearings. Bits of the week: Várhelyi clears legal scrutiny, Orbán in Strasbourg, Meloni tightens grip on Italian society and why did Europeans vote as they did? In 2019 the European Parliament was eager to prove its leverage and reject some Commissioners-designate during their hearings, but this time around MEPs so far seem eager to keep things undramatic. Five years ago, as Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) prepared to grill the commissioners-designate in their respective committees, they did so in the wake of a European election season that played out quite differently from the most recent one. Back then, heads of government made short work of Parliament’s efforts at democratising the EU’s top appointments, bypassing the conservative spitzenkandidat Manfred Weber in favour of a wild card, Ursula von der Leyen. Incensed by the Council’s behaviour, MEPs went into hearings with knives drawn and eager to prove a point. This is election season unfolded differently. Although von der Leyen didn’t run for Parliament as the authors of the spitzenkandidaten process intended, she was the conservative lead candidate this time around – and was eventually picked for a second term by heads of governments. The parliamentary arithmetic is also different. The centrist coalition of the socialist S&D, liberal Renew Europe and centre-right EPP kept its majority – barely. But right-wing forces gained ground, though not enough to build a majority without the extreme forces of the farthest right group in Parliament, the Sovereigntists. In this new, intricate political landscape, a bitter-sweet consensus seems to arise among centrist forces. They seem to agree that, for all its flaws and complexity, von der Leyen’s proposed commission strikes a balance they can tolerate. The socialists saw their political priorities reflected in new commission portfolios, such housing and intergenerational fairness. Furthermore, their Teresa Ribera is set to pick up the coveted competition-portfolio on top of her executive vice-presidency. For their part, Renew got two executive vice-presidents, arguably far more than their poor showing in the elections merited. The group fell from 97 MEPs during the last mandate to 77. Sources within the centrist coalition tell Decoded that for all the speculation surrounding the hearings, they would want the currently proposed slate of commissioners to pass through, to maintain the fragile peace on Place de Luxembourg. In the new Parliament, any workable majority is so slim that MEPs seem eager to keep the truce. The flipside is that, if that truce breaks in the hearings, it might spark a chain reaction of candidates being blocked. In 2019, a series of tit-for-tat rejections ensued when Romanian Rovana Plumb and Hungarian László Trócsányi fell at the first hurdle - financial and ethical scrutiny in the legal affairs committee. Plumb was a socialist and Trócsányi, a member of Prime Minister Orbán’s Fidesz, was part of the EPP at the time. So, when France’s Sylvie Goulard, a member of President Macron’s party and part of the liberal Renew Europe group, was rejected in a joint session of the industry and internal market committees, it was largely seen as a way of evening the scales. This time, an informal armistice looks as if it will emerge. But the first test will be next week. Hearings are set to start on 4 November, but the exact schedule has yet to be put together. Next week, committee chiefs will meet to figure out timing and logistics. It is expected that junior commissioners will be first in the hot seat, and executive vice-presidents the following week. But the specifics of who is grilled when could prove crucial. If any group sees their candidate become the first to fall, the entire house of cards could tumble down if they take an eye for an eye. | 