Orbán tests his veto power Next week’s European Council summit is shaping up to be a microcosm of power politics and a test of just how far Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is prepared to test his country’s veto power. The pre-Christmas gathering was billed as the ‘enlargement’ summit months ago after the European Commission gave its approval for Ukraine to begin talks to join the EU. Also on the table for EU leaders will be a proposed €50bn aid package for Ukraine, and changes to the bloc’s seven-year budget. The battle lines have been clearly drawn. On Wednesday (6 December), Orbán’s Fidesz party submitted a resolution to parliament in Budapest, demanding that the government oppose the start of talks on Ukraine’s EU accession. Since Fidesz is the ruling party, it is safe to assume that the government will share the same view. “The European Union’s expansion policy should remain an objective process based on rules and performance,” the Fidesz resolution stated. At various stages in the process of imposing sanctions against Russia because of its war against Ukraine, Orbán has often been the lone voice in opposition. But it has always appeared to be a case of political leverage. Fidesz may be more sympathetic than most to Vladimir Putin’s regime but the subtext to Orbán’s stance has been the long-running dispute between his government and Brussels over the rule of law in Hungary, particularly judicial independence, civil society and media freedom, and the conditional disbursement of EU funds to the country. Hungarian officials have indicated that they will oppose new EU aid for Ukraine unless the Commission releases the recovery funds, launching a public consultation asking Hungarians whether they support that position. MEPs accuse Orbán of blackmail and abusing veto power. That may be true but other leaders have used similar tactics on other issues in the past and since EU membership is the biggest and juiciest carrot Brussels can offer to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government in Kyiv, the Hungarian premier is not wrong in believing that his vote is at its most valuable. After a meeting of EU justice ministers in Brussels on Monday, Hungary’s Bence Tuzson held a press conference stating that Hungary has fulfilled all the European Commission’s requests related to the reform of the Hungarian judiciary. The most painless solution would be for the Commission to slowly open the taps on the recovery funds – and there are signs that this is coming up. Last week, the European Commission signalled that it could be close to unfreezing up to €10bn, citing progress made on judicial reforms. During November’s Strasbourg plenary session, EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders welcomed a Hungarian law tabled in June, which aims to address the EU’s concerns about judicial independence as “an important step in the right direction”. “Hungary also needs to complete the accompanying implementation steps,” he added. That won’t appease MEPs: Earlier this week the Budgetary Control Committee stated that suspended funds should only be released to Hungary if there is evidence that Budapest’s judicial reforms are effective. EU lawmakers insist that Hungary continues to flout EU standards on the rule of law but releasing some of the funds should ensure that Ukraine’s future is not derailed by a row over money. | 
