Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded, your essential guide for staying up to date and receiving exclusive insights. This is Max Griera, writing my last newsletter with Euractiv. It has been a true pleasure to accompany you throughout the EU elections campaign and the horse-trading game that came after. Subscribe here.

In today’s edition

• Everything you need to know about ID’s collapse and the future influence of the new ‘Patriots for Europe’ group.
• Bits of the week: Hard right ECR and The Left elect leadership after last-minute hiccups.

Everything indicates the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group is set to collapse in favour of the newly created ‘Patriots for Europe’, which aims to gather all radical right forces beyond the Conservatives (ECR) group. What does that mean for the far-right camp’s influence in the Parliament?  

Three weeks after the elections, the pieces of the new EU Parliament’s group puzzle are finally falling into place.  

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group was constituted on Wednesday with the final 84 seats as Poland’s PiS stayed on despite threats of leaving to join Viktor Orbán’s new group. 

At the same time, the prospective new left-wing group led by Germany’s Sahra Wagenknecht fell apart.  

After rumours of a far-right supergroup in recent months, a new group was announced on Sunday, ‘Patriots for Europe,’ initially composed of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, Czech Andrej Babis’ ANO, and a former ID member, Austria’s FPÖ.  

Since then, little pieces of evidence here and there have indicated that Identity and Democracy (ID) may be on the verge of collapse in favour of the brand-new Patriots of Europe. 

“Le Pen, Orbán, and other delegations reached a deal before last Sunday that ID would cease to exist to create the new one,” a well-informed MEP confirmed to Euractiv, pointing out that the package of high-level jobs within the group has already been divided between national delegations.  

While French far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National seems set to announce joining the new group after Sunday’s French legislative election, according to Euractiv’s information, other ID members have already started their transition.  

Patriots for Europe “is the most interesting project for alternatives in Europe,” the leader of Italy’s Lega, Marco Zanni, told Corriere della Sera on Tuesday.  

Portuguese far-right party Chega, bringing two seats in ID, has also expressed interest in joining and will submit the decision to the party’s national assembly in the coming days, according to a party source. 

The Netherlands’ PVV, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, Denmark’s People’s Party and others are likely to follow suit. 

Altogether, Patriots for Europe could reach around 95 seats, especially if it attracts currently non-affiliated parties such as Germany’s AfD, Bulgaria’s Vazrazhdane, Spain’s The Party is Over, and Slovakia’s Hnutie Republika.  

That would make them the third political force in the Parliament, after centre-right EPP and Socialists (S&D), followed by hard-right ECR in fourth place and the Liberals of Renew Europe in fifth. 

Does it matter? 

Yes and no. First of all, ‘Patriots of Europe’ is the same group as Identity and Democracy, just with another name and Orbán in it. 

The majority of the European Parliament groups will keep isolating them under the so-called cordon-sanitaire, an informal agreement between political groups not to collaborate with the far-right.

According to the D’Hondt method used to allocate internal jobs to groups according to their weight, a 95-seat-strong Patriots of Europe could nominate around two Parliament vice presidents and three committee chairmen.  

As committee chairmanships will be voted on by the absolute majority this month, the rest of the groups in Parliament can reach agreements to oust the far-right nominees – as has happened in the past. 

When it comes to vice-presidencies, it gets trickier and Orbán and Le Pen could actually make it.  

During the first plenary starting on 16 July, MEPs will need to decide which candidates they support in a single ballot, selecting at least eight names.

Candidates need to get an absolute majority in this first voting round. If the 14 posts are not filled during the first and second voting rounds, a third one is scheduled where nominees are elected by a relative majority.  

It is in this last step that the far-right could score one vice presidency if the other groups fragment their vote and the Patriots for Europe’s nominee, possibly with the support of the ECR, manages to get more votes than the other candidates. 

As for legislation, Patriots of Europe could ally with the ECR and, on a case-by-case basis, with the centre-right EPP, to reach a tight majority and block laws in Parliament.  

ECR comes together after PiS jump scare. The dispute between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and the former ruling party in Poland, PiS, has been resolved. Earlier this week, PiS was rumoured to be in negotiations with the new potential alliance Patriots for Europe, which already includes Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, as well as Austria’s FPÖ and Czech ANO. 

…new leadership elected. While on a group retreat in Sicily, the centre-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group in the European Parliament elected Nicola Procaccini (Fratelli d’Italia, Italy) and Joachim Brudziński (PiS, Poland) as co-chairmen. The following were elected as vice-chairs: Assita Kanko (N-VA, Belgium), Hermann Tertsch (Vox, Spain), Alexandr Vondra (ODS, Czech Republic) and Charlie Weimers (Sverigedemokraterna, Sweden). Denis Nesci (Fratelli d’Italia) and Kosma Złotowski (PiS, Poland) were elected as co-treasurers.  

The Left-Sahra Wagenknecht saga ends with a whimper. Talks to form an alternative left group in the European Parliament failed, Germany’s Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) confirmed on Wednesday (3 July), as its lead candidate Fabio de Masi blamed last-minute dropouts and the “powerful levers” of “majority groups”. 

The Five Star Movement was one of the key allies of BSW, but the lack of agreement to form the new group made them ultimately join The Left group, which accepted their application on Thursday. 

BSW’s De Masi wrote: “On Tuesday evening (2 July), we received last-minute requests for talks from parties of The Left faction, who felt marginalised there with their focus on peacekeeping, diplomacy and social justice. They were appalled that Die Linke would continue to lead their parliamentary group despite the party’s election defeat.” 

… In response, The Left co-chair Martin Schirdewan, from Die Linke, told Euractiv: “BSW obviously didn’t have a very intelligent strategy in forming a group. Now they end up sitting with AfD together in the non-inscrits. But maybe that’s where they belong.“ 

… Germany’s conservative-green MEP joins EPP. Another player rumoured to have been involved with BSW is Manuela Ripa, a German MEP from the Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP). Instead, she is set to leave the Greens and join the EPP group in the European Parliament. The ÖDP, founded in 1980 by a former CDU member, has historically maintained close ties with the European Green Party.  

…The Left appoints leadership. The Left group in the European Parliament announced on Thursday that it has balanced its books and elected its leadership. Both German Martin Schirdewan (Die Linke) and French Manon Aubry (La France Insoumise) have been re-elected as co-chairs of the group. Schirdewan will step down halfway through the mandate to make space for Greek Kostas Arvanitis (Syriza). Arvanitis has been elected vice-president of the group, alongside Marc Botenga (PTB, Belgium), Hanna Gedin (Vansterpartiet, Sweden), and Irene Montero (Podemos, Spain), who served as minister for equality until November last year in the former government of Pedro Sánchez.