By Magnus Lund Nielsen

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded, brought to you by Magnus Lund Nielsen, your essential guide for staying up-to-date and receiving exclusive insights about the backroom deals within the Brussels bubble. In the newsroom, we look forward to helping you get ahead of the curve with the latest news in the upcoming weeks. Subscribe to Politics Decoded here. 

In today’s edition

• Push through Parliament: Although the new slate of commissioner-designates looks nothing like her wish list, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is working with what she has got – and here is why. 
• Bits of the Week: Eyeing permanent access to EU funds, members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are teaming up with new pan-European parties before the September deadline. Also, the German election season is a go, as regional elections see the far-right heading for victory.

Instead of asking member states to reconsider their commissioner picks, von der Leyen is putting commissioners up for a vote in the European Parliament for lawmakers to separate the wheat from the chaff.  

Von der Leyen’s calls for gender parity in her new team have fallen on deaf ears, as only seven out of 27 member states have proposed women candidates at the time of writing.  

Although some experts had suggested that she reset the commissioner appointment process and asked member states to come up with other (female) names, the Commission President looks determined to play the hand she has been dealt.  

Keeping the list as it is still leaves her with the opportunity to tailor the commissioner portfolio and appoint (executive) vice-presidents to meet the wishes of individual member states – and national party delegations in the European Parliament.  

A respectable portfolio for the still unnamed Italian commissioner candidate might satisfy the twenty-four members of the European Parliament (MEPs) of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s, Fratelli d’Italia, as well as other delegations of the rightwing group European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). 

As parliamentary sources have already confided in Euractiv, the current makeup is bound for a rough time during parliamentary scrutiny. Centrist forces are taking issue with the lack of gender balance.  

Von der Leyen might have good reasons to stay the course, nonetheless. Although questionable, moving forward with the team of commissioner-designates that member states have given her might play into her hands. 

If a candidate does not make it past parliamentary scrutiny, she can pass the blame onto member states. 

In 2019, after Parliament dumped the initial French candidate for commissioner, Sylvie Goulard, the blame for her failure was put on French President Macron rather than Goulard’s prospective boss, Ursula von der Leyen. 

If MEPs trash several of the incoming commissioners, she can pass the blame back to the countries that nominated them. Since her re-election in June, von der Leyen has been adamant in her calls on member states to provide her with a gender-balance, and qualified slate of commissioners.  

Giving parliamentarians a chance to play hardball might play out well for von der Leyen in the long run. As the junior partner in the EU legislative process, the lower chamber has historically been prone to complexities concerning its role.  

But, through the hearing process, the Parliament plays a key role and has a rare degree of leverage over the political make-up of the new Commission. New and veteran MEPs are rubbing their hands with the prospect of sending a signal to the rest of the EU system that power lies equally in Parliament, as much as in the Commission and Council. 

By pushing the responsibility back onto member states and allowing MEPs to flex their influence, she could emerge with a stronger mandate, not only for herself but also for the Parliament, as well. 

This strategy could ultimately reinforce the balance of power within the EU institutions, making it clear that while the Commission proposes, it is the MEPs that dispose. 

European Left Party is losing members. The European party undergirding The Left group in the European Parliament has seen their Finnish, Portuguese, and more recently Danish members' parties leave. Party insiders tell Euractiv that a new left-wing European party is being formed; European Left Alliance. 

“It’s a process of professionalisation,” a source close to the negotiations told Euractiv. European Left Party ranges from both smaller regional parties to larger, more established parties. The new European Left Alliance hopes to be a close-knit collective of main parties with representation on national and European levels, the source explained. 

Patriots bringing the band together. With the deadline to form new EU parties (and get access to EU funds, at least around €60.000 annually per MEP enrolled)  by 15 September, more manoeuvres in and out of parties are expected.  

Across the aisle, members of the newly formed Patriots for Europe group in Parliament, have also created a corresponding pan-European party, Patriots.eu. According to their website, by July only six out of the fifteen national parties in the political group, have also become members of the newly formed party.  

That should cover a party retreat. In 2024, the biggest European party, the European People’s Party, could receive as much as € 13.5 million in EU funding, according to the European Parliament. 

And what’s the difference again? European Parties and political groups in the European Parliament are not intrinsically linked, Renew Europe being a prime example, with no less than three European political parties represented in the parliamentary grouping. European parties can also include parties without representation in the EU Parliament.  

German state elections spell disaster for Scholz’s coalition. The government of German chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a tough electoral test this weekend as the East German states of Saxony and Thuringia head to the polls for state elections. 

While the two states only account for 6 million inhabitants – less than 8% of the German population – the state elections could impact Germany as a whole.
Far-right AfD is leading the polls in both states, while the parties of the Scholz government coalition, could lose all their seats completely, polling dangerously close to the 5% threshold.  

Following a stabbing in the West German town of Solingen last week, this week has been dominated by a debate on migration policy, seeing the government and CDU, outbid each other in tough rhetoric, in a bid to prevent a landslide win by AfD.