Europe has historically shunned Africa’s fossil fuels, ostensibly out of concerns for climate change, with many of its leaders pledging at COP26 in 2021 to stop financing new fossil fuel projects altogether. But this attitude has undergone a seismic shift since energy shortages in Europe began to bite. “Investments in fossil resources had really slowed because of anticipation of intensifying action on climate,” said Scott Foster, former director for sustainable energy at the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. “But attitudes towards fossil fuels have moved because of nearer-term concerns about security of supply and security of price resulting from the war in Ukraine.”

Among nations that have committed to reaching net zero emissions by mid-century are 12 African countries responsible for around 40% of Africa’s current emissions. But there are many obstacles to meeting these objectives, according to Fakir, including low investments because of COVID-19  — a problem exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. “The energy crisis in Europe will be another factor that can potentially delay the uptake of renewables in Africa,” he said.

The new European interest in fossil fuel projects will embolden African leaders who have long been reluctant to shift to renewable energy. “Even prior to the invasion there was a sense that they were being asked for too much,” said Julian Wright, the U.K.’s regional climate adviser for West Africa. “The invasion has given weight to the argument that they have been making.” Verner Ayukegba, senior vice president of the African Energy Chamber, said that African OPEC members had been worried about the global shift to clean energy because of their dependence on hydrocarbons. Today, they’re relieved. “For them this is definitely vindication,” Ayukegba said.

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A less controversial option might be for Europe to rely more heavily on renewable energy. Europe has set targets for ensuring 40% of its energy supply comes from renewable sources by 2030. Renewables are already widespread in the region, with Germany and the Netherlands relying on wind for as much as one-fifth of their power supply. Funding in the sector is rising, too. Germany has pledged more than $2001 billion to bring forward its target of being 100% dependent on renewable energy by a decade, largely triggered by a desire to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

But a shift to total reliance on renewable energy will likely take time, and is unlikely to be an immediate solution to the current energy crisis. The Atlantic Council argues that the E.U. began a major transition to green energy two decades ago but still has a long way to go, with only 20% of energy coming from wind and solar and 13% from hydropower in 2020. Supply chain challenges, a lack of political will and bureaucracy have delayed the construction of new renewable energy supplies.

It is unlikely that a total shift to renewables or a reversion to fossil fuels will resolve Europe’s energy woes. Instead, the best solution is likely to be a combination of the two, with upticks in the use of renewable energy supported by persistent use of fossil fuels, particularly gas, which is increasingly being designated as a transitional “sustainable ” fuel. The concern for renewable energy advocates like Fakir, however, will be that the ongoing use of fossil fuels will reduce the overall interest in moving toward cleaner energy. Africa could lose out in the long run. “You can see where this lobbying is going,” lamented Fakir.

Who is responsible for Europe’s energy shortage: Russia, EU leaders, energy consumers, or someone else?

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