What’s behind the increase in violent attacks on Europe’s politicians?

Good morning.

After a government meeting in the small town of Handlová on Wednesday, the Slovakian prime minister, Robert Fico, went to meet local supporters who had gathered in the town centre. There was little separating him and the crowd – just a waist-high metal fence – as people reached out to shake his hand. During this meet-and-greet, a man fired five shots at the prime minister. Fico fell and was quickly bundled away in a black car and taken to hospital, where he spent five hours in surgery. Two days after the attack he remained in stable condition but officials have said that he is “not out of the woods yet”.

The suspect – identified as Juraj Cintula, a 71-year-old poet and former security guard – was tackled to the ground and later arrested on charges of attempted murder, according to local news sources. Though there were indications that the alleged suspect did not agree with the government’s political stance, he appeared to have acted alone.

This attack, the first serious attempt on the life of a European head of state since 2003 when Serbian prime minister Zoran Djindjic was assassinated, has horrified leaders across Europe who have voiced condemnation and called for calm in an increasingly febrile political landscape.

In the build-up to the European elections in three weeks’ time, there is an unstable atmosphere in many countries across the continent – with political violence and unrest becoming more common. For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Armida van Rij, who leads the Europe programme at Chatham House, about what’s behind the growing tension. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘There’s been a lot of discontent, reflecting increased divisions and polarisation within society’

Fico is a divisive figure in European politics. He began his career as a member of the Communist party when it was in power and later founded the Smer party in 1999. This is Fico’s fourth term, having previously won elections in 2006, 2012 and 2016, but he had to resign in 2018 amid mass protests over the murder of an investigative journalist and his fiancee. That left Fico in opposition for five years, from where his party adopted increasingly rightwing views on immigration, press freedom and LGBTQ+ rights. He was once again elected in 2023, on a more anti-EU, pro-Putin platform: cutting funding for Ukraine was a key pledge in his campaign, when he said “we will not send a single round” for its defence.

His polarising political style has created deep rifts in Slovakia – critics have accused him of undermining the rule of law and media freedoms. Thousands have repeatedly taken to the streets to protest against the overhaul of radio and television services that some say will result in the government controlling the output.

The response to the assassination attempt is emblematic of these schisms, with some politicians in Slovakia seeking to “exploit divisions”, Rij says – in the hours after Fico was shot ministers were blaming the opposition and the media for the attack. There is a fear that this attack will be used as a political tool to crack down further on civil liberties and press freedoms.

While this may be an isolated incident, it happens against a backdrop of increasing polarisation across the continent.

German politicians attacked

Rij cautions against overstating the level of violence in Europe, which she believes may only stoke more fear and anxiety, but, she says, “the reality is that if we look at the German context there has been a significant increase in attacks on politicians”. The most affected political party is the Greens, the junior partner in chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, which reported 1,219 incidents of verbal and physical attacks.

Representatives of other parties have also been affected: two AfD politicians were physically attacked in the city of Stuttgart; Franziska Giffey, a well-known figure in the Social Democratic Party (SDP), was treated in hospital after she was struck in the neck and the head; and Matthias Ecke, an SDP MEP, required surgery after an attack by four people left him with serious injuries. This has all happened in the last two weeks.

Protests sweeping the continent

There is a general sense of discontent in many countries that are still dealing with the hangover effects of the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and a globally volatile economy. Varying interest groups across European countries – from Georgia, to France, to Ireland – have been protesting about everything from farming to the war in Gaza, repression of civil liberties, the climate crisis, anti-immigration policies, and pro-immigration policies. Despite the disparate positions, it is clear that much of the public does not feel heard by their representatives and sometimes the pushback has turned violent.

“There’s been a lot of protesting and a lot of discontent, and I think it is reflecting increased divisions and polarisation within these societies,” Rij says. “There’s a bit of a parallel between the murder of Jo Cox right before the Brexit vote in the UK, where it felt like the mood was really grim, and I think we are getting to that point in Europe as well.”

Swing to the right

The European parliamentary elections are less than three weeks away and many polls suggest that far-right parties are going to make significant gains, potentially coming first in nine EU states and second or third in a further nine. The centre of gravity could change dramatically in the next European parliament.

“Far-right parties in particular have been very good at galvanising people online,” Rij says. “We know that conspiracy theories about lots of different challenging issues are circulated widely and that has an influence on politics and the way people vote.”

Centre-right parties are trying to stymie this surge by adopting some of the far right’s viewpoints and rhetoric, particularly when it comes to the EU’s green deal, civil rights for minorities and migration, which are hugely contentious, further polarising the political landscape.

Ramping up the rhetoric

The fraught atmosphere also makes campaigning more difficult. “If there’s a sense that politicians and volunteers can only go out with police protection, there is an impact on how visible politicians of certain parties are willing to be and that can have an impact on elections and undermine democratic liberties,” Rij says. “That is really quite serious because ultimately, we need to be able to hold elections where politicians have had a fair chance to campaign.”

Part of the reason that politics in some European countries has become so toxic and dangerous is down to the politicians themselves who are using more inflammatory rhetoric than ever. That is not a new phenomenon – in 2017, one German AfD politician said that he would “hunt down” then chancellor Angela Merkel – but it is increasingly widespread. Drawing a comparison to the language Donald Trump used before the January 6 insurrection, Rij says: “This rhetoric has the potential to be very damaging – it is the responsibility of politicians, even if they’re not yet elected, to really think about the words they use because the fallout can be severe.”

What else we’ve been reading

• ‘At the start you get molested and by 45 you’re too old to work’: Rachel Healy’s look at the life of women working behind the scenes of TV is an eye-opening read. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

• What happens when incarcerated parents are no longer allowed to hug their children? For the New Yorker (£) Sarah Stillman finds out. Nimo

• Emma Brockes has been in fine form dissecting the Donald Trump hush money trial, and the appearance of his former lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen on the stand offered her an open goal: “Looking like the Fonz and sounding like the former personal injury lawyer from Long Island he is, somehow Cohen survived the defence team’s attempts to discredit him, and managed to land a series of blows on his former employer.” Toby

• Lauren Gambino takes a look at the proposals coming out of Washington DC to combat antisemitism, which have been described as “repressive” and “broad” by some and defended by others as a “clear” standard for punishing bigotry. Nimo

• Tom Burke is a familiar face on TV, but with the new Mad Max prequel Furiosa he’s making the leap to the big screen. Ryan Gilbey talks to him about his experience in the Australian outback and how he feels about working with JK Rowling. Toby

Sport

Football | Mauricio Pochettino has the support of key figures at Chelsea before an end-of-season review that will determine his future. The manager has been under pressure for much of his first campaign at Stamford Bridge but is on increasingly strong ground after guiding his young side to within touching distance of Europa League qualification thanks to a four-match winning run.

Golf | Rory McIlroy shot a five under par round of 66 on the first day of the US PGA at Valhalla while Xander Schauffele stormed to a tournament-record 62.

Tennis | Women’s tennis will return to the Queen’s Club for the first time since 1973 as the LTA confirmed that a new prominent event will kick off the grass-court season in west London from 2025.

The front pages

“Ministers were warned in 2021 about carer scandal” says the Guardian this morning while the Times has “Bed-blocker crisis means extra NHS cash wasted”. “Don’t betray our Royal Mail” – that’s the Daily Mail while the Daily Mirror splashes on “Youngest organ donor family: our joy”. “Be warned! Taxes WILL go up under Labour, says Hunt” says the Daily Express and the Daily Telegraph seizes on that one as well: “Labour tax rises as sure as night follows day, says Hunt”. The Financial Times leads with “BT shares surge 17% as new chief vows to put squeeze on group’s short-sellers”. “Plumbing the depths … charity hero lies exposed” is the story on the cover of the Metro today.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

TV
Ashley Madison: Sex, Lies & Scandal
Netflix
People who are familiar with the Ashley Madison fiasco might initially wonder why Netflix is taking such a gentle approach to this story. Ashley Madison, you may recall, was – and, astonishingly, remains – a dating site for married people who want to have an affair, discreetly. In 2015, a mysterious hacking group threatened to leak, then did leak, details of the site’s users, exposing many men to their unsuspecting families, colleagues and, in some cases, constituents. This is an era-defining tale: an online security horror story that touches on greedy tech corporations, late-stage capitalism, religious hypocrisy and proto-AI. Rebecca Nicholson

Music
Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft
An album that keeps wrongfooting the listener, Hit Me Hard and Soft is clearly intended as something to gradually unpick: a bold move in a pop world where audiences are usually depicted as suffering from an attention deficit that requires instant gratification. Hit Me Hard and Soft isn’t in the business of providing that. In its place, it offers evidence that, among the ranks of mega-selling pop stars, Billie Eilish (pictured above) remains a fascinating law unto herself. Alexis Petridis

Film
If
Cinemas nationwide from Friday
On paper, John Krasinski’s first kids’ film checks the boxes, though in practice it’s not quite as cuddly as Blue, the giant purple bear voiced by Steve Carell. There’s an underlying perfunctory sweetness to this tale of a girl who, in the midst of family turmoil, can suddenly see everyone’s former imaginary friends. There are plenty of wacky, cartoon-esque bits for the kids – and for adults prone to childhood nostalgia, there’s something winning and throat-achey to the premise of a retirement home of Ifs pining the loss of their grown human friends and waiting to find another child playmate. Adrian Horton

Podcast
Broomgate
Widely available, episodes weekly
Never before has a broom been responsible for so much scandal – in 2015, the Canadian curling community was rocked by a team that used one instead of two. “To not have the other person out front cleaning in a frosty situation doesn’t make sense,” said one shocked commentator. The full story has never been told, so comedian and curling geek John Cullen investigates the switch to the “super broom” that caused a furore. Hannah Verdier

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

When completed, the Strawberry Line network will stretch across 76 miles of Somerset countryside to link local communities, amenities and business like never before. Long tied up in the red tape of planning permission, however, a team of volunteers are now using permitted development rights to speed up the process – and their own time and handiwork to construct it.

Over the past two years, completed sections of the path have begun cropping up, connecting housing areas with local schools, hospitals and businesses for the first time, replacing previously treacherous A-road routes with safe access for walkers and cyclists. Local volunteers have been to thank for everything from clearing sites, digging drainage and planting trees, to building and maintaining paths and fences.

“It’s placemaking and community enrichment in a way I don’t think any of us realised it would be,” says Somerset councillor Ros Wyke says. “It’s unbelievable the difference a single path has made.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

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