What’s going on here? The eurozone’s industrial sector dipped in April, but that hasn’t stopped a major investment bank from expecting the region to end the year on a high. What does this mean? Economists had only expected the eurozone’s industrial output to tick up by a modest 0.2% in April, but even that was too high a goal. Instead, the measure declined by 0.1%, while March’s figures were revised downward to a tiny 0.5% increase. That said, the drop was mainly related to stuff like raw materials, while the output of “capital goods” – including machinery and equipment – seemed to move in the right direction. And the worst dips came from some of the eurozone’s smaller economies, with Italy the only one of “the big four” to slip. Why should I care? For markets: Europe’s talking politics. The eurozone now needs to pin its hopes on the service industry, which is still feeling the weight of high interest rates and inflation. To make matters worse, Europe is rattled by political turbulence, with alarms ringing about a potential increase in right-wing governance that could exacerbate the region’s financial worries. Still, Citigroup’s analysts predict the European STOXX 600 index to ramp up by 11% by the end of the year, saying it could hit even bigger numbers if interest rates are cut. The bigger picture: The scissors are under lock. Rapidly fluctuating economic updates are making it tough to get a read on how a country’s really doing right now. One week, an economy can seem strong enough to risk sparking up inflation. Another, it could be teetering on the weak side. This week’s figures fell into the second category: China and the UK both released data that pointed toward faltering economies. So remember to zoom out to the wider picture – and be extra cautious: conflicting data often comes out when the economy’s at a turning point, for better or for worse. |