| | | | Friday, December 25, 2020 | | Week 16 starts today with the Vikings and Saints at 4:30 ET, so this is truly the beginning of the end of the Fantasy for most players. Today's Fantasy Football Today Newsletter has previews of every game on this week's schedule, including a special #AskFFT Mailbag featuring your toughest lineup questions relating to every game plus the latest injury news for every relevant player. But first … | | Today is Christmas, and whether you celebrate the holiday or not, this feels like a good opportunity to just say how much I appreciate every single one of you who subscribed to this newsletter, read it even once, and sent in your questions. This newsletter has been a massive undertaking, but it's been super rewarding to know I get to reach people directly to help them with their Fantasy teams, and knowing they can reach me directly if they need help. Fantasy football has helped me stay in touch with childhood friends who have moved all over the country; it has given me a community that I'm happy to be a part of; and it has, frankly, been a welcome diversion during the decade that was packed into 2020. And I'm sure many of you feel the same way. | | I'm lucky I get to do this job, and I'm grateful for every person who reads even one word that I write. If I helped you get to your championship this week, I hope I can help you take home the title this week, because that's been my goal from the beginning with this newsletter. And, if I managed to provide some entertainment and fun along the way, all the better. As always, if you want to send me an email at Chris.Towers@CBSInteractive.com, I'll try to get to as many as I can between now and Sunday. Again, thanks for being a part of this with me. | | Now, here's everything you need to know before locking in your lineup for Week 16Start 'Em & Sit 'Em | Starts & Sits, Sleepers & Busts | PPR Cheat Sheet | Non-PPR Cheat Sheet | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Matchup Notes | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: RB | Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: WR | Waiver Wire | Who Can You Trust? | | | | Vikings at Saints | | Line: NO -7; O/U 51 Implied totals: MIN 22, NO 29 Injuries: Kyle Rudolph (foot) -- Out. Irv Smith will once again be the lead tight end, and that could be enough to make him worth starting, though he is by no means a must-start. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Andre: Start three: T.Y. Hilton, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, and Robert Woods. | | Jefferson is the must-start of this group in my eyes -- he has at least eight targets in five of the last six games and has at least 17 PPR points in each of those five games. It's a tough matchup, but he needs to be in there. And then I would go with Moore and Woods. | | Buccaneers at Lions | | Line: TB -10; O/U 54 Implied totals: TB 32, DET 22 Injuries: Kenny Golladay (hip) -- Out. It's not clear if we'll see Golladay in Week 17, either. Just a mostly wasted season for Golladay, who had 338 yards in five games. He'll be a great bounce-back candidate for 2021 … Matthew Stafford (ribs) -- Questionable, but it would be a surprise if he didn't play. Stafford isn't worth starting, but it's always better having him out there than Chase Daniel for the rest of the offense … Ronald Jones (reserve/COVID-19) -- Jones is unlikely to be cleared to play, so Leonard Fournette should be the starter yet again. Fournette got 66% of the snaps in Week 15 with 17 touches, and should be viewed as a high-end RB2 for this one. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Jared: Does the news about the Lions offensive coaching staff -- interim head coach and play caller Darrell Bevell is out due to COVID-19 protocols, so WR coach Robert Prince will be the head coach and QB coach Sean Ryan will call the plays -- make you nervous at all to start D'Andre Swift? | | It's sort of an unknown variable, right? It very well could have a negative impact on the Lions offense, and it seems safe to assume it at least increases the risk of a poor performance. However, the game plan will still included plenty of input from Bevell, so it wouldn't be enough to scare me off Swift, especially if Stafford is healthy enough to play. Swift is the clear lead back here with a goal-line role and passing role that makes him a high-upside and high-floor play. | | 49ers at Cardinals | | Line: ARI -5; O/U 48.5 Implied totals: SF 21.75, ARI 26.75 Injuries: George Kittle (foot) -- Kittle is on IR so the 49ers don't have to officially upgrade his status, but it sounds like he has a chance to play. He'll be a tough call assuming he is activated from IR Friday, but unless you have a top-three tight end, you probably want to have Kittle in your lineup. Sure, he might have a limited role, but there simply aren't many tight ends with Kittle's weekly upside, and you don't want to be the one who lost your championship because you left him on the bench, right? ... Nick Mullens (elbow) -- Out. C.J. Beathard will start for the 49ers, which is probably a mild downgrade, but not enough to change how you should view the offense … Raheem Mostert (ankle) -- Has been placed on IR and is out for the season. Jeff Wilson will start in his place, with Jerick McKinnon likely seeing an increased role, especially in passing situations … Deebo Samuel (hamstring) -- Has yet to practice and likely won't play … Chase Edmonds (ankle/knee) -- After sitting out Wednesday and Thursday's sessions, Edmonds was back out there Friday, a good sign for his chances of playing Saturday. Edmonds has playing a little more than half the snaps for the Cardinals lately and was the lead back in Week 15, but he's still more of a flex play if active. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Steve:I need a second RB to pair with Alvin Kamara for the championship. It's non-PPR and here are my choices: Salvon Ahmed, Jeff Wilson, James Conner, Darrell Henderson? | | We've received a lot of questions about Wilson this week, and I think he's my favorite of this group. He seems like a safe bet to get more than 15 carries and whatever goal-line opportunities there are for the 49ers. The only question is what kind of passing game role he might have -- he has 12 targets over the last three games but just three catches. If he can catch two or three balls, it could really help. | | Dolphins at Raiders | | Line: MIA -3; O/U 47.5 Implied totals: MIA 25.25, LV 22.25 Injuries: DeVante Parker (hamstring)/Jakeem Grant (hamstring)/Mike Gesicki (shoulder) -- All three were limited throughout the week and listed as questionable after missing last week's game. The Dolphins are usually pretty coy about injury statuses, and Gesicki is probably the only one of this group you want to rely on this week even if they all play … Derek Carr (groin) -- Has been able to practice in full the last two days, a good sign that he won't end up missing any time. However, given the matchup, Carr is just a No. 2 QB for this week … Hunter Renfrow (concussion) -- Upgraded to a full participant in practice Wednesday, a great sign for his chances of playing. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Laura: For my flex, who do I start J.D. McKissic, Myles Gaskin or Tyler Lockett? | | Gaskin will be active for Week 16 after missing two weeks due to COVID-19 protocols, and it will be fascinating to see what his role will be. When healthy, Gaskin has been the lead back for the Dolphins, and there usually hasn't been much room for anyone else. However, there was talk that he would split work with Salvon Ahmed before Ahmed's shoulder injury, and I would expect it'll be more of a timeshare. Both have played pretty well when given the opportunity this season, but I would guess Gaskin is the lead back and the passing downs guy over Ahmed. I would still start McKissic over either, as well as Lockett. | | | | Browns at Jets | | Line: CLE -9.5; O/U 47.5 Implied totals: CLE 28.5, NYJ 19 Injuries: Nobody Fantasy relevant from this game seems to be at risk of sitting out | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Nghia: I need to start two of three to help me get to the next round: Allen Robinson, Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt. | | It's a great spot for Hunt, as the Browns should be up big in this one, but I just don't love his role at this point. The 13 carries over the past two games are obviously less than ideal, but so too is the fact that he has just two games all season with more than three catches. One of those came two weeks ago, but it was in a shootout that featured 89 points between the Browns and Ravens. This won't be that. I would go with Gordon for this one. | | Colts at Steelers | | Line: IND -1.5; O/U 44.5 Implied totals: IND 23, PIT 21.5 Injuries: James Conner (quad) -- Full practice Wednesday and Thursday, so it seems like he'll be back. He's the better option between him and Benny Snell, but neither is a must-start … Eric Ebron (back) -- Ebron was held out of practice Wednesday but progressed to a full participant Thursday and should be back on the field Sunday … Jack Doyle (quad) -- Doyle was added to the injury report Thursday after missing practice. He typically doesn't practice Thursday, but the team usually lists him as resting, so this could be an issue. Doyle isn't Fantasy relevant on his own and it's hard to view either Mo Alie-Cox or Trey Burton as anything more than desperation plays. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Charles: I'm starting Brandon Ayuik and D.J. Moore, but also have to decide between Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, and Mike Davis for flex. Who is best for this one spot? | | One week after getting benched for his drop issues, Johnson was back to being Ben Roethlisberger's top target in Week 15. It was a typically inefficient day from the duo, but 13 targets and eight catches probably deserves to be in your lineup -- and maybe he'll score a touchdown again. | | Giants at Ravens | | Line: BAL -10.5; O/U 43.5 Implied totals: NYG 16.5, BAL 27 Injuries: Daniel Jones (hamstring/ankle) -- Limited at practice this week. It sounds like Jones is expected to return from his one-game injury, though it's fair to have questions about how effective he can be, especially against this matchup. This is good news for the Giants offense as a whole, but expectations should still be pretty low, given Jones' injury and inconsistency … Evan Engram (calf) -- Upgraded to a full participant in practice Thursday, a good sign for his chances of playing his usual role. Engram always has upside, but he's more of a low-end TE1 against this matchup … Marquise Brown (knee) -- It's never a good sign when a player gets added to the report mid-week, and Brown was unable to practice Thursday due to this injury. At this point, you should assume he won't play and look for another WR3 option. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Joe: Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers? Feel like that's a toss up. | | Rodgers was a lot better early in the season, but Jackson has matched him point for point per game over the last five weeks and has outplayed him over the last three. You can't really go wrong with either, but I think I would lean in Rodgers' favor given the likelihood of a competitive game against a bad pass defense. But it is very close, and you won't feel great about sitting either. One thing that should make you feel better: Jackson's recent run of dominance has featured a pretty unsustainable four rushing touchdowns in three games. | | | | Bengals at Texans | | Line: HOU -7.5; O/U 46 Implied totals: CIN 19.25, HOU 26.75 Injuries: Tyler Boyd (concussion) -- Boyd has yet to practice this week, so you have to assume he won't be playing unless he's out there Friday. It's a great matchup, but you probably can't trust any Bengals WR at this point … Duke Johnson (neck) -- Johnson sat out both Wednesday and Thursday practices and seems unlikely to play in Week 16. Just another reason to like David Johnson as Jamey Eisenberg's Start of the Week. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Brent: I've started Russell Wilson over Deshaun Watson every game after drafting them both. My inclination, however, is to start Watson in the upcoming finals. Your thoughts? | | Yeah, I think you've gotta do this one. Watson got Brandin Cooks back last week and dropped 27.4 Fantasy points against them. A lot of people are asking whether they should sit Wilson, and it'll be tough to pull the trigger on leaving someone with his upside on the bench, but Watson is one of the rare QBs with similar upside, especially against this matchup. | | Bears at Jaguars | | Line: CHI -7.5; O/U 47 Implied totals: CHI 27.25, JAC 19.75 Injuries: Allen Robinson (hamstring) -- Coach Matt Nagy called Robinson's absence "precautionary," but I'll admit I'm a bit skeptical of that -- anytime a player is added to the injury report mid-week, I always assume it's worse than it seems. We'll see if that's the case, but definitely have an alternate waiting ... James Robinson (ankle) -- We don't expect to see much of Robinson in practice this week, but the team does seem to think he'll be able to play Sunday. If he does, you probably have to start him, given how good he has been, but it's less obvious than it would be if he was healthy, obviously. You can add Dare Ogunbowale or Devine Ozigbo in case Robinson is out, but it's not clear which would be the lead back. My money would be on Ozigbo, but you can't feel good about either if it comes to that. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | James: Who do I start: Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Mitchell Trubisky? | | It's Trubisky. You won't necessarily feel great about starting Trubisky in a championship game, but maybe this will make you feel better about it: I'll be right there with you, streaming Trubisky in my longest-running league. Trubisky has actually been pretty good this season, averaging 21.9 Fantasy points in his six full games. It's that "full games" qualifier that makes you queasy, because he's always seemingly a bad quarter away from ending up on the bench. That's unlikely to happen against this matchup. | | Panthers at Washington | | Line: WAS -1; O/U 42.5 Implied totals: CAR 20.75, WAS 21.75 Injuries: Terry McLaurin (ankle) -- McLaurin has been limited by this injury for weeks now, but he wasn't held out of practice last week so this is a little concerning. You'll need to watch his status because it's hard to justify sitting McLaurin if he's active -- he had seven catches for 77 yards in Week 15 even with Dwayne Haskins at QB … Antonio Gibson (toe) -- It's starting to look like Gibson has a chance to come back this week after getting in a limited practice session, though that is by no means guaranteed. You have to assume Washington won't bring him back unless he's close to 100%, so if he plays, you probably want to start him … Alex Smith (calf) -- Smith is improving, but while he was listed as limited Thursday, it sounds like he mostly participated in throwing drills and little more. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported it might be tough for him to come back this week, so it might be another Haskins week … Christian McCaffrey (thigh) -- The Panthers haven't ruled McCaffrey out for Week 16 yet, but coach Matt Rhule told reporters early in the week he is doubtful, and even suggested he may not be back for Week 17. It's just been a lost season for McCaffrey, though he did put up 90.4 PPR points in three games and remains the No. 1 contender for the first pick in the 2021 season. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Chuck: I picked up Logan Thomas. Do I play him over T.J. Hockenson, especially with Matthew Stafford's injury? | | Hockenson seems like he might be a bit of a safer option, but I like Thomas as the higher-upside play. He's averaging 17.8 PPR points per game over the last four with nine targets per game, and he saw 16 targets from Dwayne Haskins in Week 15. I just haven't liked the way the Detroit offense has looked lately, with Stafford throwing multiple touchdowns in just one of the last five games -- the lone exception was when Thomas is the better play here. | | Falcons at Chiefs | | Line: KC -10.5; O/U 54 Implied totals: ATL 21.75, KC 32.25 Injuries: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) -- Edwards-Helaire is expected to miss the final two games of the regular season, with the hope he'll be back for the playoffs. Le'Veon Bell is in the RB2 discussion with Edwards-Helaire sidelined … Julio Jones (hamstring) -- Jones still isn't practicing, and we shouldn't expect him to play at this point. He can play without practicing, but it's hard to see them letting him play without getting at least some practice after playing just one game in the last five weeks. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Matthew: Need to start two in my championship game, PPR: Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt, Le'Veon Bell, or Jeff Wilson. I'm really leaning toward Gio as one even though I think a lot of rankers might have him last. | | I think Bernard is a worthwhile option to consider, but I'd probably rank him third of this group, ahead of Hunt. If I had to say which guy is No. 1 of the group, it comes down to Bell vs. Wilson for me, and I'll go with Bell for the pass-catching potential, though Week 13, when he had just 11 carries and three targets with Edwards-Helaire out, does loom large as a warning sign. | | Broncos at Chargers | | Line: LAC -3; O/U 49 Implied totals: DEN 23, LAC 26 Injuries: Keenan Allen (hamstring) -- Allen probably won't practice at all this week, and he is reportedly going to be a game-time decision for Sunday. When that happened in Week 15, he barely played, so you can't feel good about starting him. If Allen plays anything like his typical role, he's obviously one of the best receivers in Fantasy, but he's no sure thing this week, and you might have better options than a potentially limited Allen even if he does play … Hunter Henry (reserve/COVID-19) -- It's not clear if Henry tested positive or was a close contact, but he won't be able to play Sunday against the Broncos either way. If Henry did test positive, he may be forced to miss Week 17 as well, so keep that in mind if you're playing into next week. The Chargers don't have an obvious option to add, so if you need a fill-in tight end, see if George Kittle is available, and when he isn't, add Irv Smith… Phillip Lindsay (hip/knee) -- Lindsay has yet to practice this week and seems likely to be sidelined as a result of the injury. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Nam: Would you start Melvin Gordon over Chris Carson? | | Yes, I would. In fact, Gordon is starting to look like an incredibly enticing starting option for Week 16 if Lindsay is sidelined as expected. The Chargers have been about middle of the pack when it comes to defending opposing running backs for Fantasy, but they allowed 26.3 PPR points to the Broncos running backs in their Week 8 meeting. And the Broncos have been using their running backs a ton lately, averaging 28 touches per game over the last five. The lion's share of those should go to Gordon, who should also see more work in the passing game than usual now that he's not splitting. Remember, Gordon had 77 touches in four games with Lindsay out earlier in the season, averaging 15.5 PPR points per game. | | Rams at Seahawks | | Line: SEA -1; O/U 47.5 Implied totals: LAR 23.25, SEA 24.25 Injuries: Cam Akers (ankle) -- Akers is expected to miss the rest of the regular season with his high-ankle sprain, with Darrell Henderson likely to step up as the starter and Malcolm Brown set to handle the passing game work. Henderson did have a five-game stretch earlier this season where he averaged 12.9 PPR points, and he could do something like that again. However, this isn't a great matchup, and you should expect Henderson to be more like an RB3 for Fantasy. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Jeff: Russell Wilson or JustinHerbert? | | Wilson wasn't the QB I got the most questions on -- he's still to come -- but it was close. Wilson has really struggled of late, with multiple touchdowns in just one of his last four games. The Eagles aren't airing the ball out as much as they did early on in the season either, so the margin for error here has gotten even smaller -- Wilson really does have to play exceptionally well if he's only going to throw it 27-31 times, the range he's been in three of the last four. Add in a tough matchup against the Rams, and the smarter play is probably Herbert. Though he's hardly a sure thing given the Chargers injuries, especially since he may be missing both of his top intermediate options, leaving him with Austin Ekeler in the short game and then a bunch of deep threats. It's a risky proposition for either one. | | Eagles at Cowboys | | Line: PHI -2.5; O/U 49.5 Implied totals: PHI 26, DAL 23.5 Injuries: Ezekiel Elliott (calf) -- Elliott has been limited throughout the week at practice, but it sounds like he has a pretty good chance of playing in Week 16. Of course, his absence in Week 15 was pretty surprising, so make sure you've got a good fill-in ready to go just in case you need. Tony Pollard would obviously be a good one if Elliott is out, though they would just be low-end No. 2 RB options if both play … Jalen Reagor (ankle) -- Reagor seems to be on track to play, though he won't have much Fantasy appeal even if he does. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | From Everyone: Who shouldn't I start Jalen Hurts ahead of? | | We got more questions about Hurts this week than any other player by far. And most of them were pretty tough to answer, because it was usually something like, "Hey, do I start Hurts over [insert elite QB who has helped carry my team for literally months]?" It's easier to just list the guys I definitely wouldn't start Hurts over: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray. That's the whole list. I would have to think really hard about Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, and Tom Brady would be a very tough call given that matchup against the Falcons. Everyone is an easy call for Hurts, and I think I would probably end up starting him over Jackson and Watson after agonizing over it Sunday morning. The rushing production for Hurts is what makes him stand out, but it's also where Watson and Jackson can match him, and you should have more faith in their passing abilities. | | Titans at Packers | | Line: GB -3.5; O/U 55.5 Implied totals: TEN 26, GB 29.5 Injuries: Aaron Jones (toe) -- Toe injuries have a tendency to be worse than they seem, but there doesn't seem to be too much reason to be concerned here. Still, with Jamaal Williams sitting out with a quad injury, you probably want to pick up A.J. Dillon on the outside chance this is like a Week 15 Tony Pollard situation. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Tommy: Chris Godwin, Cole Beasley, Cooper Kupp, and Corey Davis. If you had to pick three to start and one to sit, who would you pick? | | Davis is in an interesting spot, where the Fantasy community is still clearly pretty skeptical of him. He's 17th in the NFL in PPR points per game, ahead of the three other guys here, and while the Packers aren't a great matchup, Davis had 15.5 PPR points against the Steelers and 16.3 against the Ravens earlier this season. I think I would be sitting Beasley in this one if John Brown and Stefon Diggs play, though I could be talked into sitting Kupp as well despite the matchup. The point is, I think Davis is the second-best option of this group, and the risk of one of those random three-target games seems pretty low given the expected high-scoring nature of this one. | | Bills at Patriots | | Line: BUF -7; O/U 46 Implied totals: BUF 26.5, NE 19.5 Injuries: Stefon Diggs (foot) -- Diggs was a full participant in practice, a great sign for his chances of playing Monday. Barring a setback -- which we would find out about before Sunday's games, at least -- Diggs should be locked in your lineup for a game against the Patriots without Stephon Gilmore … John Brown (ankle) -- If you want a sign that the Bills are confident Brown is coming back, they released Jake Kumerow Thursday, a week after he scored his first touchdown of the season. Brown is expected to return to his usual role, and is in the WR3 discussion now that he's back … Damien Harris (ankle) -- Sony Michel filled in capably for Harris in Week 15, which makes sense because they are pretty much the exact same playing. Michel had 17 carries in two games before Harris' injury, so expect something like that if Harris plays. Neither should have much appeal outside of non-PPR leagues, however. | | #AskFFT Mailbag | | Jim: Can Cole Beasley be trusted as a starter now that John Brown will be returning to the Bills lineup? | | Beasley has been better with Brown out, but it's not as big a gap as you might expect. In the six games Brown has missed, he has 41 catches for 473 on 53 targets and one touchdown, compared to 38 catches for 477 yards on 49 targets and three touchdowns. Sure, fewer targets and catches per game, and a three-to-one touchdown edge in the games Brown has played helps bridge the gap, but he hasn't just been role player with Brown active -- 77 catches, 954 yards, and six touchdowns is nothing to scoff at. He's less of a sure thing with Brown back, but he's still the No. 3 option in a high-volume, very productive passing attack, making him a viable No. 3 WR for Fantasy, too. | | | | | | | | |
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