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With the approach of the five-year mark of Syria’s civil war – sparked by protests and crackdowns amid the Arab Spring – a new round of peace talks will launch in Geneva, and a tenuous cease-fire remains in place for most of the warring parties.

But the human toll of the conflict is never far from the headlines, and there is little optimism that peace talks will easily veer toward resolution.

Given the geopolitics of the region, Syria’s future ultimately might more closely resemble its distant past than the modern state that has been ruled by the Assads. Two of Stratfor’s Middle East analysts have explored that topic, with first-hand perspectives and insights from the region.

Find out more about what Syria’s history under the Ottoman Empire might mean for its future evolution with this free report by Toba Hellerstein. And, in a piece publishing Sunday, March 13 (also free), analyst Emily Hawthorne examines why the Assad’s Alawite governing structures have persisted so long – and why remnants are likely to remain for some time to come.

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