As Election Day unfolds today, November 5, 2024, markets are bracing for potential volatility. The highly anticipated US presidential election, combined with the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, has investors on high alert. With the US Dollar already showing signs of weakness traders are weighing their options carefully.

Historically, markets tend to favor gridlock, as it lowers the likelihood of significant legislative changes. However, this election cycle’s unpredictability may drive increased hedging and volatility. Despite solid Services PMI and Average Hourly Earnings growth, the weak Nonfarm Payrolls report has made investors cautious. Below, we’ve analyzed how election-driven volatility may unfold and outlined our trading approach. As an election bonus, we’re offering this edition of our Trade Ideas Weekly Newsletter free of charge.

How SPY, QQQ & IWM Have Moved Post- Election 👀

Given the current economic situation and historical patterns, here's our analysis:

2020 and 2016 scenarios are less likely because:

• Those were periods of extremely accommodative Fed policy and low rates
• Markets were in a different phase of the economic cycle
• 2020 specifically was influenced by COVID recovery and massive stimulus

The 2004/2012 moderate scenarios could be more relevant because:

• Like now, they occurred during periods of economic uncertainty
• Fed policy was also a key focus (though different circumstances)
• Markets were dealing with valuation concerns

Key Current Factors to Consider:

1. Fed Policy

• Unlike 2020/2016, we're in a high-rate environment
• FOMC meeting coincides with election week
• Markets are sensitive to Fed guidance

1. Market Structure

• High concentration in mega-cap tech
• Higher valuations compared to historical averages
• More institutional derivatives positioning

1. Economic Context

• Resilient but slowing economy
• Sticky inflation concerns
• Strong labor market but showing cracks

Most Likely Scenario: Based on these factors, a moderate scenario similar to 2004 (+1-4% range) seems most probable, but with higher volatility potential due to:

• FOMC coinciding with election week
• Current market concentration
• Geopolitical uncertainties

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