Existing Home Sales Slump Continues

Existing home sales account for the lion's share of all home sales in the U.S. Unlike "New Home Sales," this data series tracks previously sold homes. The massive rate spike in 2022 (and possibly the compounding of affordability issues due to excessive price growth) caused a sharp drop to long term lows by the end of that year. A nice, little bounce ensued to start 2023, but it's increasingly proving to be short-lived. The sales outlook is challenging due to an obscene lack of inventory. It may be slightly positive in year-over-year terms (blue line in the chart below from Calculated Risk), but still near super long term lows in outright terms (red line). Tight inventory is keeping prices higher. Combine that with stubbornly high rates and it's easy to blame "affordability" as one of the key reasons for the sales staying low. Other highlights from today's data: Median prices are down 1.7% from last year (388k vs 395.5k) Average days on market = 22 down from 29 First time buyers = 29% of market, up from 28% All-Cash buyers 28% up from 27% Investor share steady at 17%

May 18, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Existing Home Sales Slump Continues Existing home sales account for the lion's share of all home sales in the U.S. Unlike "New Home Sales," this data series tracks previously sold homes. The massive rate spike in 2022 (and possibly the compounding of affordability is... (read more) MBS Commentary Range Breakout ? Range Breakout ? The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boundary. Jobless Claims fell noticeably, which is more important than normal considering this wee... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Now at 2 Month Highs It may not be a death by a thousand cuts, but mortgage rates are suffering a bit of blood loss from roughly 5 cuts. Specifically, the past 5 days have seen consecutive moves to higher levels. The whole affair has been fairly steady relati... (read more) Rob Chrisman Hedging, Non-QM Selling, Correspondent, Digital Insurance, Fee Collection Tools; Retail Offerings; Household Debt This Commentary has made a name for itself in covering breaking, shocking news that other, lesser outlets are too timid to even mention. “One day I hope to be wealthy enough not to do a double take every time I see abandoned furniture on the side of ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.82% +0.12% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.19% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.45% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.50% +0.10 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.85% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.44% +0.12 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.19% +0.13% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.39% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% 0.00 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/18 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% +0.12 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.14 0.56 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.12 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.66 -0.38 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.66 -0.38 UMBS 5.5 100.16 -0.25 GNMA 5.0 98.95 -0.33 GNMA 5.5 100.08 -0.17 Pricing as of: 5/18 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.6500 +0.0780 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.258 +0.098 5 YR Treasury 3.686 +0.098 7 YR Treasury 3.669 +0.092 10 YR Treasury 3.650 +0.078 30 YR Treasury 3.907 +0.047 Pricing as of: 5/18 5:31PM EST Latest Video Housing market will be 'sideways' until mortgage rates get to low 6%, says ... Fed Pres. Bullard: 'Data does not yet show a June pause is appropriate' Sarian: We're at a pivotal time for the markets in terms of what the Fed is... SoFi's Liz Young says she expects to see more dissent among Fed officials o... Around the Web forexlive Feds Bullard: Higher rates are insurance against inflation. Leaning toward a June hike. cnbc Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn’t justify pausing rate hikes yet The Basis Point 27% of homebuilders reduced prices and 54% offered buyer incentives in May Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 242,000 Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY Eye on Housing NAHB Debuts New Index for Multifamily Activity CNBC Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yet Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 23% YoY; New Listings Down 25% YoY Eye on Housing Cooling for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction Eye on Housing Townhouse Construction Cools Cleveland Fed Monetary Policy's Effect on Job Openings CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as optimism for a debt ceiling crisis resolution grows Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 2.0% Year-over-year

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