DISTRESSED REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Wealth Management FinTech
 

MAY 20, 2020

Editor's Note

Entering a New Phase

Welcome to the first issue of NREI's Distressed Real Estate Strategies newsletter.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted every facet of our lives in 2020. For much of March and April commercial real estate activity was on pause, along with just about all other economic activity. Now nations around the world, including the U.S., have embarked on efforts to reopen economies, albeit with social distancing and other health and safety measures in place.

Despite efforts by central banks and governments to help stem the damage, the cataclysmic drops in employment and GDP are taking their toll. Several major retailers have already filed for Chapter 11. With leisure and business travel unlikely to bounce back quickly, the hotel sector is facing a long, slow climb. Corporations are rethinking their office layouts and occupancy levels. 

All of these factors and more are giving shape to a new distressed real estate cycle. The years after the Great Recession brought with them a spike in this kind of activity that lasted for years. Things will not play out exactly the same. The volume of outstanding CMBS debt, for example, is not as large as it was last time around. 

In this monthly newsletter, NREI will provide updates and analysis as the cycle proceeds. We hope you find it useful as you navigate these challenging times.

David Bodamer, Editorial Director

Top Story

Opportunistic Capital Prepares for Distressed Investment Spree

Even as COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc with the global economy—putting the majority of commercial real estate investment activity on pause—entities are lining up gobs of capital to pounce on distressed real estate opportunities expected to arise in the coming months.

FULL ARTICLE

Analysis

Eastern Union Plans to Play Matchmaker for Distressed Loan Deals

NREI spoke with Abe Bergman, co-founder and managing partner of Eastern Union, to learn more about the initiative and the distress the firm expects to emerge among CRE lenders.

FULL ARTICLE

CMBS Market Regains Some Liquidity Even as Delinquencies Mount

CMBS deals that were stuck in limbo when COVID-19 hit have found a path forward, thanks to greater pricing stability on the heels of government intervention. It’s a glimmer of good news for the market that’s also seen a spike in forbearance requests from borrowers and is bracing for delinquencies in the months ahead.

FULL ARTICLE

Some CRE Lenders Are Feeling the Squeeze on Liquidity

One early trouble spot to surface is among highly-levered lenders who rely on short-term repurchase (repo) warehouse lines of credit with mark-to-market provisions to finance loans. A surge in margin calls sent lenders scrambling to raise needed cash, and, in some cases, is precipitating discounted loan portfolio sales.

FULL ARTICLE

Podcast

NREI's Common Area, Episode 33

In this episode of NREI's Common Area Podcast, David Bodamer and Charles Krawitz, vice president and head of commercial lending at Alliant Credit Union, discussed how the lockdown is affecting commercial borrowers.

LISTEN HERE

Commentary

Somewhere Over the Rainbow: A Guide to Successful Loan Workouts

This is the first of a four-part series from Holland & Knight's Susan J. Booth on loan workouts. Part one examines steps a mortgage lender should take before the workout starts.

FULL ARTICLE

Early Stages of Navigating Forbearance in the Time of COVID-19

Borrowers of commercial and multifamily properties considering options as the COVID-19 pandemic plays out must weigh a host of immediate decisions, some with short-term implications, as well as others that carry longer term impacts. 

FULL ARTICLE

A Playbook for Managing Distressed Assets in the Wake of COVID-19

While these are uncertain and volatile times, many commercial real estate businesses should be able to maintain operations and continue to provide valuable contributions to the economy.

FULL ARTICLE