Bitcoin charts paint a bearish picture amid a parabolic rise in bullish bets
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December 17, 2019




Bitcoin’s monthly futures contract listed on digital asset platform Bakkt charted a record for open bets on Monday. 

According to Skew, which tracks crypto derivatives, open interest – how many futures contracts are currently open or active in the market – reached a new all-time high of $7.02 million, representing an 11% gain from Friday’s level of $6.33 million. 

Open interest is different from trading volume, which measures the number of contracts traded in a given period.

Bakkt’s futures product registered a trading volume of 2,898 contracts ($19.90 million) on Monday, marking an 87 percent rise from the 1,551 contracts ($11.23 million) that changed hands on Dec. 15.

A record volume of 6,671 contracts was seen on Nov. 27, as per the twitter post published by Bakkt Volume bot. 

Open interest rate and trading volumes have climbed since the launch in September and indicate growing institutional interest in the physically-settled futures contract. 

Observers says Bakkt’s offering will push up demand for bitcoin and bodes well for the top cryptocurrency in the long run. 

While Bakkt’s futures market is growing, activity in the recently introduced cash-settled options product has yet to pick up. 

Only 14 bitcoin options have traded on Bakkt since launch on Dec. 9. That includes one block trade of 10 call options at a $8,000 strike price expiring in January 2020. 

  
Three-Week Lows

BTC: Price: $6,960 | Market cap: $123 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $20.40 billion

Short-term trend: Bearish

Bitcoin fell to three-week lows below $6,900 during the Asian trading hours, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the lower high at $7,870 created on Nov. 29. 

With the drop to the lowest price since Nov. 25, the daily chart MACD histogram has crossed below zero, confirming the bearish trend. 

The cryptocurrency appears on track to re-test November lows near $6,500. 

It's worth noting that t
he number of bullish bets, as represented by the BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex, has surged more than 75 percent over the last three weeks and currently stands at a record 44,523 contracts.

It's likely that the sharp rise in longs represents traders who believe the cryptocurrency has made a major bottom near $6,500.

But if the price starts to fall below that level, investors may panic and square off (sell) their long positions, leading to deeper losses.

Long-term trend: Neutral

Bitcoin's monthly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, signaling a bearish reversal. The cryptocurrency is trapped in a five-month bearish channel. 

Even so, the outlook remains neutral, as the MACD is a lagging indicator. Further, the miners’ reward halving, usually a price-bullish event, is due in May 2020. 

With BTC looking oversold after a 50 percent drop from June highs above $13,800, a notable recovery ahead of the supply-cutting event can’t be ruled out – more so, as the 50-week MA has crossed above the 100-week MA, confirming the first golden bull cross since May 2016. 

After all, the previous bull cross had marked the start of a long-term bull market. The cryptocurrency picked up a strong bid near $430 following the bull cross confirmation in May 2016 and charted its way a record high around $20,000 in December 2017.

That said, the outlook as per the weekly chart would turn bullish only if and when prices break higher from the five-month long bearish channel. 

Read Analysis



Three White Soldiers for Fetch.ai

FET: Price: $0.05 | MCAP: $34.4 million | 24-Hr Volume: $20.7 million

Short-term trend: Bullish

FET is one of today's best performing crypto in the top 100 at Messari.io and has begun to show signs of a reversal from the bearish downtrend that began on Dec. 8.

Three white soldiers is commonly regarded as a bullish reversal pattern and was accompanied by strong levels of daily volume on yesterday's (Dec. 16) short-term buying frenzy.

The short-term bullish fundamentals driving value are likely attributed to its Mainnet launch slated for Dec. 19 as well as a staking program which opens its bidding phase on Dec. 17 at 1pm UTC.

Fetch.ai is a decentralized connectivity platform that enables devices to connect directly with digital agents delivering autonomous solutions to complex tasks.

Long-term trend: Neutral

The awesome oscillator is hinting at an easing of bearish pressure, courtesy of shortened histogram bars below 0, which illustrates weakening momentum from sellers in the long term.

Similarly the daily RSI is printing a reading above the neutral 50 level, hinting at a continuation should prices close above $0.054 by weeks end.


Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.

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