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| Monday, March 15, 2021 |
| Happy Monday, everybody! It's crazy to think but we are just 17 days away from opening day. It can't get here soon enough. On the podcast today we focused on boom or bust type players. For me, those are players with the widest range of outcomes. Player A might have a first-round ceiling but the floor is you're dropping said player by July 1. For hitters, Adalberto Mondesi seems to be the face of this discussion. Specifically, in category leagues, Mondesi is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in steals, the toughest hitting category to fill. |
| On the pitching side, Trevor Bauer seems to make sense. Just look at his past two seasons. Bauer had a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and then went on to win the National League Cy Young last year. The question is how should you approach these types of players. I think Scott said it right. "I don't like drafting boom or bust players early. I like drafting boom or bust players late." It seems rudimentary but first you want to build that safe base for your team before you start adding risk to it. |
| Speaking of risk, Sonny Gray might start the season on the Injured List. We have all the boom or bust players plus the latest news and notes from the weekend below. |
| And of course, you can subscribe to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify. |
| Also, the Fantasy Baseball Today Draft Guide is LIVE! It's a one-stop-shop to help anyone dominate their drafts that includes sleepers, breakouts, busts, rankings, analysis, tiers and more. The best part about it? It's free! |
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| The Faces of Boom or Bust in 2021 |
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| There's always a face of the boom or bust category of players in every Fantasy season. Who better to kick things off with than who I consider to be the face of the boom or bust players in 2021 among all pitchers: |
| Trevor Bauer |
| Just look at his ERA the last four seasons (2020-2017, in that order): 1.73, 4.48, 2.21, 4.19. Does it get more boom or bust than that? All boom or bust picks fall into one of two categories: injury-based or performance-based. In the case of Bauer, the risk factor is based on his Jekyll-and-Hyde-esque performances over the past four years. The consistency is certainly lacking, and although his boom might not quite live up to his Cy Young 2020, it can still live up to his ADP. |
| Chris: "I think the boom season for Trevor Bauer is a 2.60 ERA with 195-205 innings and 250 strikeouts. He could be one of the few pitchers who could get up to 210 innings." |
| Scott is the highest on Bauer of all three of us -- he has him as SP4 overall. "I think the 2019 season is more like the disaster outcome. Maybe the bust season is a mid-3s ERA if he doesn't quite get the extraordinary spin rate on his pitches. But I think the thing a lot of people overlook with Bauer is that he wasn't that good in 2019, but how do you explain 2018? Two of the last three years he's been the best pitcher in his league." |
| Adalberto Mondesi |
| It feels like last season was a microcosm of this whole conversation for Mondesi. The first 37 games were a bust and the final 22 games were a boom for the speedster. Mondesi racked up a dominant final 22 games (nearly averaging a steal per game) and those who view him as one of the big-time boom players in 2021 will likely point to the fact that he was returning from shoulder surgery to start 2020 -- and it makes sense that he was rounding into form. |
| Ultimately, the boom factor with Mondesi comes down to how much he can potentially help you in the scarcest category for Roto or any leagues that prioritize categories. In 161 games since the start of 2019, here's Mondesi's stat line: .260, 15 HRs, 91 runs, 84 RBIs, 67 SBs (15 CS). He leads all hitters in steals since the start of 2019 with 67 -- Jonathan Villar is second with 56 SBs in 53 more games -- and he projects as just a utility player for the Mets in 2021 barring injuries to their current projected starters. |
| Scott doesn't think we've seen the ceiling yet for Mondesi, but that still doesn't inch him closer to paying up for him at his current ADP. "The plate discipline will put some limits on him, but he could be a guy who hits .275 with 25 HRs and 70 SBs -- doubling up everybody in that category. I think that's in the realm of possibility now that the shoulder injury is in the rearview mirror. But I'm not drafting him yet. His September numbers last year were heavily inflated by a .464 BABIP (and that's likely unsustainable). |
| Chris lays out the bust case: "It's what we've seen from Jonathan Villar over the last couple of seasons. It's that he's so bad he's not an everyday player. I think he's almost certainly going to remain an everyday player because he's a very good defender and baserunner, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he has a .550 OPS on July 1. That's a realistic outcome for him. The bust case is that he hits so poorly he's not even playing. As long as he's in the lineup, he's going to steal enough bases that you'll probably need to start him." |
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| Boom or Bust: UTIL edition |
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| Jordan Alvarez vs. Giancarlo Stanton vs. J.D. Martinez |
| Now that Alvarez finally made his spring debut (going 0-for-3 with two fly outs and one ground out), the expectation is that his ADP may rise, but for now, these three UTIL hitters are coming off the board in a fairly consistent and similar range. |
| Scott has Stanton the lowest in his rankings, but admits that if he stays healthy he can be the best HR hitter in baseball again. His pick for the biggest boom player is Alvarez. "He looked like Mike Trout without the speed when he got called up. I think he had 50 HRs and 50 doubles between the majors and minors that year." |
| And for those still concerned with Alvarez's health, he seemed to dismiss those worries after his first live action. |
| "Today was just the first game for me," Alvarez said after the game. "I think I told you guys before that I feel a lot better than people must think. I feel healthy." |
| Chris sees Martinez as being the likeliest bust because of his age (33). |
| At their current ADP, both Scott and Chris are most likely to draft Stanton but he loves the value of all of them. His strategy is to avoid being the first drafter to take one of them (therefore opting not to start the run or set the market value). As soon as one comes off the board, Scott is looking to grab one -- and we're all on board with that strategy. |
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| News and notes |
| Sonny Gray was scratched Sunday due to a mid-back injury. He's now expected to start the season on the Injured List. Remember he went on the IL last September, too? It was also a mid-back strain. How far are we dropping Gray in the rankings? Scott can see dropping him outside of the top-35 of his SP rankings and I've already beat him to the punch on that. Gray has moved down my rankings and he could fall further. One of my favorite sleepers is Tejay Antone and he also tweaked his groin Sunday. Afterward, Antone said he felt alright and expects to make his next start for the Reds. Austin Nola has a fractured middle finger on his left hand. There is no timetable and Opening Day is up in the air. Do we now drop Nola behind James McCann, Sean Murphy, and Mitch Garver? Chris had him just ahead of those guys but will now probably drop him. "I'm less concerned about supposed injury-prone players than those who already hurt. I'll probably drop him to C14." Carlos Carrasco, who is dealing with elbow inflammation, threw to 75 feet Sunday. He'll throw from 90 to 120 feet on Monday, followed by a short bullpen session. When asked if he'll be ready for opening day, Carrasco said "Oh yes. I will be ready." Maikel Franco is on the verge of signing a one-year deal with the Orioles. I would like a refund on all of my deep league Rio Ruiz shares. Franco was actually serviceable last year: .278, 8 HR, 38 RBI -- but his Statcast data was very bad. Any interest as a CI in deeper Roto leagues? Scott made it clear it would have to be a prettay, prettay, prettay deep league. In other words, move on. Frankie Montas made his debut Sunday with three scoreless innings and two strikeouts. His fastball sat in the 95-97 MPH range. If we were drafting today, Chris feels comfortable selecting Montas over Corey Kluber, a pitcher who continues to fly up ADP right now. Scott said he has faced that exact decision multiple times this draft season and has gone with Kluber every time. |
| Sean Manaea made his debut Saturday and was apparently sitting 93-94 MPH. He averaged 90.4 MPH on his fastball last year and has never been higher than 92.3 MPH in a season for his career. The ADP is at 242 right around all of those other fun sleeper starting pitchers we've mentioned a lot: John Means, Nathan Eovaldi, Elieser Hernandez. Chris is not particularly interested in reports that he was "sitting" at 93-94 MPH. "I'm not going to move a guy when I don't have actual data in front of me. If he's actually averaging that kind of velocity, we know that velocity is correlated with whiff rate, but one start where we don't have Statcast data to back it up doesn't move him up for me." Speaking of Means, there was a report he was sitting 94 MPH in Friday's start. Yusei Kikuchi is a name we haven't talked about much. He was very sharp Sunday, recording 10 outs with six strikeouts. He was sitting at 95-96 MPH with the fastball, which is where he was last year with that increased velocity. Chris feels like the stuff is quite good and the Statcast data backs up that he should've had better stats than he did in 2020. He's a late-round target for Chris in every draft. |
| Scott wrote an article about post-hype sleepers last week and Brendan Rodgers was one of them. He pulled up lame on a stolen base attempt Saturday and has been diagnosed with a hamstring strain. There is optimism he'll be ready for Opening Day. Name to watch: Blue Jays pitching prospect Alek Manoah threw three perfect innings with seven Ks against the Yankees with nine whiffs on 44 pitches. Manoah is 23 years old, a former first-round pick in 2019, but he hasn't pitched above Low-A ball. For my AL only players out there, just pay attention to the name Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Thank me later! He pitched four no-hit innings Sunday, bringing his spring line to 9 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 s. He averaged 94 MPH on his fastball Sunday, up from 91.4 MPH last season. He's a deep,deep sleeper I'm excited about. |
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