| |
|
| Friday, July 18, 2025 |
| Jameson Williams was one of the best Fantasy picks from the 2024 season. My lovely podcasting co-host Dan Schneier (along with FFT Host Adam Aizer) predicted a Year 3 breakout that I was more dubious of because Jameo's usage had been un-friendly for Fantasy purposes in 2022. |
| I was worried about the extremely high average depth of target. Through his first two seasons as a pro, Williams was mostly used on the vertical plane as a field-stretcher. It was a valuable real life role, but it's hard to draw enough target volume to be a productive Fantasy contributor while operating such a downfield-oriented route tree. |
| The key to Williams' Year 3 breakout was an adaptation to his route tree, as predicted by Aizer/Schneier. While I missed out on drafting Jameo, I was at least able to quickly react to what we were seeing in Year 3 and highlight the importance of his role change. |
| |
| The Fantasy Points Data team quantified just how significant horizontal routes are, you can see that above. |
FP/RR = Fantasy Points per route run
TPRR = Targets per route run
YPRR = Yards per route run |
| H-Break routes were worth 23% more Fantasy points per route run than Vertical-breaking routes and were 49% more likely to draw a target. That's the issue. It's extremely rare to draw targets at a high rate while working down the field at a high rate. When we are blessed with that rare combination, the result is one of the coolest receivers in Fantasy. Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, those are the few who fit the archetype. For every Collins, there are 50 Rashod Batemans. Bateman is a fantastic route runner ! He's been a useful real-life player for one of the NFL's best offenses. But he's rarely been useful for Fantasy. The targets simply have not been there. |
| Below, you'll find the receivers with the highest average route depth from the 2024 season. Jordan Addison was able to turn in a productive Fantasy season on the back of double-digit touchdowns, but Marvin Harrison Jr. was not so lucky. |
| |
| Notice the target per route run rates -- even the useful Fantasy receivers from this range are barely posting above average TPRR. |
| Vertical routes are not a bad thing, unless it is the primary way in which an offense utilizes a player. Ideally, for Fantasy, we want to target receivers with a healthy balance leaning into liberal horizontally-breaking route usage. Some can do both effectively! |
| In our fourth installment of the Fantasy Cheat Codes series, we're focused on route concepts and how receivers and tight ends are impacted for Fantasy purposes. |
| Fantasy Cheat Code #4 -- Target pass games with the best route designs, duh! |
| |
| |
| Another Liam Coen stat! |
| |
| Jacksonville Jaguars -- Of course, this is a Brian Thomas Jr. stat. We'll talk about him in more detail later. I'm psyched to see what Coen will do with BTJ and Travis Hunter at his disposal. |
| Denver Broncos -- This was a Courtland Sutton stat in 2024, and I wonder if it might be a Pat Bryant stat at some point in the not-so-distant future. Sutton had a 28% target per route run rate and 2.35 yard per route run rate on H-Break routes, compared to 17% and 1.86 on vertically-breaking routes. Devaughn Vele was the other Bronco with an H-Break route rate above 40%. This supported decent target volume (23% TPRR on H-Break routes) for Vele, who was only able to draw a target on seven percent of V-Break routes. |
| Green Bay Packers -- Romeo Doubs had a 14% TPRR on V-Break routes, compared to 31% on H-Breaks. We'll discuss the Packers in our next section. |
| San Francisco 49ers -- This is just a reminder that Brandon Aiyuk led the NFL in average separation score before his injury. H-Break routes were a big part of that, and Kyle Shanahan is of course a master at creating separation. |
| |
| Carollina Panthers -- Jalen Coker had one of the league's highest H-Break route rates (45%) but did not do much with it (1.55 YPRR). Adam Thielen was slightly better (1.82) on a 42% H-Break route rate, but overall, Bryce Young had it bad in 2024. I believe that Tetairoa McMillan will present a massive upgrade right away. He has the route running chops to create separation on H-Break routes, the length to make catches away from defenders over the middle or on the sideline where only he can get to it, and deceiving yardage after the catch creation to be much more efficient with the opportunities that Dave Canales' offense presents than the 2024 Panthers receivers were. |
| T-Mac has the complete package to crush on H-Break routes: |
| Route running |
| Catches away from the body (thread) |
| YAC |
| Horizontally-Breaking route leaders from 2024 |
| |
| |
| I am super excited to see what Matt LaFleur does with Matthew Golden |
| Out of 124 qualified receivers, Romeo Doubs ranked fifth in route win rate on horizontally-breaking designs. Christian Watson ranked as WR7. Dontayvion Wicks ranked as WR12. |
| The Packers had three receivers ranked 90th percentile or better? And Jayden Reed (74th percentile) wasn't far behind. This feels like a Matt LaFleur stat. |
| Finding all of these Packers receivers along with Ladd McConkey at the top of the H-Break leaderboard immediately made me think of Golden because McConkey is the closest stylistic comparison that I have for the way that the Texas speedster moves. His route running isn't quite as explosive as Josh Downs or as crisp as McConkey, but it's in the same vicinity. That type of speed, fluidity, and precision in and out of cuts could prove to be deadly, and LaFleur may be the perfect route-designer to unlock it. |
| Highest H-Break route rates among 124 qualified receivers: |
| |
| Diontae Johnson had a 46% H-Break route rate while working as the WR1 in Carolina's offense during Weeks 1-7. Jalen Coker and Adam Thielen each ranked top-15. Xavier Legette had a 32.2% rate. I really think that T-Mac is going to crush. |
| The New Orleans Saints receivers caught my attention here for sure. Chris Olave's H-Break route rate rose from 32% in 2023 to 45% in his first season working with Klint Kubiak. His 0.242 separation score on H-Break routes in 2023 was fantastic, he just didn't get to show it off much. Rashid Shaheed wasn't particularly effective (0.041 separation score) with his limited H-Break route opportunities (30%) in 2023, and still, Kubiak increased his H-Break route rate to 41% in 2024. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba had one of the lowest H-Break route rates (32%) among high-end Fantasy scorers in 2024. Out of the 10 receivers that topped 250 PPR points, all but Nabers and Terry McLaurin had a higher rate than JSN. He averaged 2.12 yards per route run on H-Break routes, compared to 1.39 on V-Breaks, so Klint Kubiak may elevate his efficiency in 2025. Specifically, Olave and Shaheed were used a lot on deep out routes. I'm pretty confident that JSN will feast on those routes. Olave had a massive 38% target per route run rate on these routes in 2024. JSN's average separation score on out routes was higher than Olave's. |
| |
| Chris Godwin was the only receiver with an H-Break route rate above 50%. Jalen McMillan had the fifth-highest H-Break route rate. And even Mike Evans registered a 40% rate (with a monstrous 33% win rate on those routes). Duuuuuvallllll! |
| Ladd McConkey looks likely to light league on fire in Year 2 |
| Over half of McConkey's routes in his first playoff game were of the H-Break variety. You might remember that he went for 9-197-1 in that game. |
| If you read the most-recent Cheat Codes newsletter installment, you know that McConkey also benefited in a big way from catching passes from the league's best play action passer. He led the NFL in Fantasy points scored on play action targets. McConkey was one of 12 receivers with at least 50 H-Break routes on play action dropbacks, and only Ja'Marr Chase (5.79) had a higher yard per route run rate (Ladd's was 5.32). McConkey led all of those receivers (including Chase!) in average separation score on those routes. |
| What can defenses reasonably be expected to do to stop this? |
| Lowest H-Break Route Rates from 2024 |
| |
| Malik Nabers had one of the lowest H-Break route rates at the WR position in 2024. And still, the rookie receiver completely dominated the target share for the Giants. The primary reason that we're focused on H-Break routes today is because they lead to notably higher target rates. I wonder what type of target upside Nabers might have if running a more balanced route tree. |
| The only other receiver who finished top-10 in Fantasy scoring with an H-Break route rate below 30% was Terry McLaurin, and his target per route run rate (21%) reflects the vertically-oriented nature of his route tree. Nabers had a 30% TPRR! That's looney tunes for a WR with just a 26% H-Break route rate! McLaurin got to his top-10 finish through elite efficiency as a powerful downfield worker paired with an aggressive QB and a play-caller who had an edge against most defenses in 2024. McLaurin got there through sheer brute force. I don't expect him to see a notable increase in H-Break routes in 2025, I just wanted to make note of this data point because it's ridiculous. And some change to his route design might occur later in his career. |
| Lowest H-Break route rates among 124 qualified receivers: |
| |
| DK Metcalf had the lowest H-Break route rate in the NFL, and his average separation score and win rate on such routes suggests that he should remain primarily a vertical plane player. That is not what the data on Malik Nabers suggests. |
| And how about healthy rates for Keon Coleman as a horizontal route runner? His rates were nearly identical to Tyreek Hill's. Matt Harmon's work at Reception Perception suggested that Coleman's most realistic chance at success as a pro was as a big slot player. Instead, the Bills stuck him outside and asked Coleman to win as an X-Receiver. If he ever sees a role change, maybe Coleman could deliver better results. For now, his low H-Break route rate makes him probably best avoided for Fantasy purposes. |
| Here's the next group of receivers with low H-Break route rates. |
| |
| In addition to the players who I highlighted in green, I want to point out that Ja'Lynn Polk was actually pretty effective on these routes. He was weirdly asked to run a ton of vertically-breaking routes from the outside as a rookie. His strength is on horizontal and static routes. If ever he will find success as a pro, Polk will probably need to benefit from a play-designer catering more to his strengths. |
| Rome Odunze was decent with his H-Break opportunities and could see more in Ben Johnson's offense. |
| Receivers who might see a route-related efficiency boost in 2025 |
| |
| |
| Alright, let's talk about BTJ and Travis. |
| |
| You can read Matt Harmon's full breakdown of Hunter's prospect profile on ReceptionPerception.com. It's a very fun read! For the purposes of today's discussion about H-Break routes, I wanted to point out the 100% success rate on out routes. Yeah, I'd say that'll do the trick! |
| |
| Mike Evans posted a career-best yard per route run rate last year. Take a moment to consider how ridiculous that is. In Year 11, after already accumulating 11,680 career yards through 10 seasons, he was a more efficient yardage creator than ever before. |
| BTJ had a higher rate last year! BTJ was 21 years old when the season started! He caught passes from Mac Jones! He had a 34% H-Break route rate and a 3.7% slant route rate! You cannot be too high on BTJ. Sure, we don't know what the outcome will be, nothing is guaranteed, but when do we get to place bets like this? The top to the range of outcomes is that this is one of the best receivers that we've ever seen. He's that gifted athletically. I compared him to Josh Gordon as a mover before the 2024 season, that's the first time that I have ever done that with a receiver. If a receiver with BTJ's size and movement ability adds technical refinement to his game and is paired with a superstar play-caller, then there's no real limit to what might occur statistically. Julio Jones was the most efficient yard per route run creator we've seen in the modern era with this exact equation. The pieces need to fall into place for BTJ to achieve that type of outcome, but it's possible. That's an extremely rare possibility that we have an opportunity to bet on, and the cost really still isn't all that prohibitive. |
| |
| Speaking of such phenoms, Nico Collins is bigger and more powerful than BTJ. Collins is a matchup nightmare for defenses, has a unique mind-meld with his QB, and might see more H-Break routes in 2025. |
| Jaylen Waddle had a H-Break route rate above 40% in 2022 and 2023, but that rate fell to 37.9% in 2024, and he was targeted less on those routes. Waddle has always been featured more than Tyreek Hill as a horizontal weapon within Miami's offense, nothing changed in that regard. The Dolphins just focused the pass game more on Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane and sent Waddle and Hill as vertical space-clearers more often. That could change in 2025. |
| |
| A few other route specific things that I noticed: |
| No receiver ran more slants than Garrett Wilson (80) in 2024. In fact, CeeDee Lamb (64), Jerry Jeudy (63), and Jakobi Meyers (62) were the only others above 60. Slants are great, but the fact that Wilson and Lamb were both well below the league average when it came to yards per route run on slants suggests that too much of any route becomes predictable and easy to defend. Wilson's heavy slant usage came at the expense of ins, digs, and hitch routes, all of which he came in well below the norm for a WR1 in 2024. |
| If Tanner Engstrand brings any concepts similar to what we've seen in Detroit, then I'd expect a much more balanced route tree for Wilson in 2025. Amon-Ra St. Brown has had a relatively low slant rate but has still been exceptional as a Fantasy producer in part because of his ability to threaten defenses in a wide variety of ways. |
| Again, slants are great, resulting in the highest catchable target rate for receivers (not including screens and flat routes) in 2024. |
| Only five receivers had more horizontally-breaking routes on play action dropbacks than McConkey in 2024. Four of them are obvious: Wilson the slant god, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase. You'll never guess the fifth -- in fact, you might have complained about a perceived lack of this very type of target for this specific player, depending on how far down the rabbit hole you are -- so, I'll tell you. Marvin Harrison Jr. ranked third in these uber-efficient opportunities. |
| |
| Before Arizona's Week 10 bye, MHJ had a 33% H-Break route rate. Following the bye, his rate was 40%. He averaged 1.28 yards per route run on vertically-breaking routes and 2.32 on H-Break routes. |
| Another MHJ note -- he had the fourth-highest average separation score and win rate on dig routes but was only targeted on 10% of those routes. The Kyler Murray complainers have some valid criticisms. |
| MHJ and Travis Hunter are two of the four players that have produced a 100% collegiate Success Rate on out routes, per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception charting (2022-24). The other two are Jayden Reed and Jaylin Noel. |
| Brandon Aiyuk's out route rate rose from 12% in 2022-23 to 16% in 2024. He was absolutely torching corners on those routes, with by far the highest out route separation score in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. Outs have been Jauan Jennings' best route for as long as FP Data has been charting (2022-24), and his rate was a career-high 17.7% with Aiyuk sidelined for most of 2024. He was targeted on a ridiculous 44% of his out routes following the Aiyuk injury. If Aiyuk can return healthy, Jennings feels the most-likely to be negatively affected from a target distribution standpoint. |
| Darnell Mooney and Drake London cooked on out routes in 2024, and Zac Robinson featured outs heavily in his offense. Here, you can watch Michael Penix Jr. film and join me in dreaming of him delivering lasers to the sideline, if you'd like. I think there's a chance that Penix can elevate either or both receivers in 2025. |
| It will probably not surprise you, but I found another way to illustrate just how surface-level what we've thus seen from Nabers as a pro has been. Daniel Jones didn't even dare scratch the surface. I'm not sure if he ever even saw it. |
| |
| Russell Wilson targeted George Pickens on 24% of his post routes, for what it's worth. |
| |
| The route that Wilson was most aggressive in targeting Pickens on was deep outs. Nabers didn't run enough outs in 2024 to qualify, but his out route separation score was better even than McConkey, Mooney, and MHJ -- all of whom we've already discussed as crushing on this route in 2024. Maybe we'll see more deep outs for Nabers with a different QB running the offense. |
| We'll end this write-up on the same note that it began. Let's talk about Jamo. Of course, I'm nervous about what life without Ben Johnson might be like, but still, there were lots of encouraging routes put on film in Year 3. Jameson Williams had a great showing as a hitch route runner in 2024, ranking fifth (out of 82 receivers) in hitch route win rate. He had by far the highest average separation score on hitch routes, indicating that Williams was creating some massive wins. His speed threat is terrifying for defenses, and Williams showed enough deceptiveness to his game to win on hitch routes with defenders on their heels. If Williams finds even more consistency as his career progresses, he could become the three most dangerous vertical route runners in the league. He has that type of speed and suddenness. |
| Beyond the Box Score episodes, ICYMI: |
| Rookie Gems |
| Best Buys in Fantasy |
| QB Tiers - Ranking Our Top-32 Real-Life QBs |
| If you're missing football, here are some film cut-ups that I've recently created: |
| Jameson Williams |
| Puka Nacua |
| Deep Passing Film Thread |
| Jaylen Waddle with Tua Tagovailoa on the field |
| Marvin Mims |
| Tutu Atwell |
| Jordan Whittington |
| Jayden Reed |
| Malik Washington |
| Kayshon Boutte |
| Roschon Johnson |
| Sean Tucker |
| Jaylen Wright |
| Trey Benson |
| Isaac Guerendo |
| Blake Corum |
| Bucky Irving |
| Will Shipley |
| Isaiah Davis |
| Braelon Allen |
| Ray Davis |
| Zach Charbonnet |
| Kenneth Walker |
| New Orleans Saints offense - Week 1 vs. Carolina Panthers (if you want to imagine how Walker/Charbs might fit in Klint Kubiak's offense) |
| New Orleans Saints offense - Week 2 vs. Dallas Cowboys |
| Chase Brown |
| Bucky Irving |
| Derrick Henry |
| James Conner |
| Jahmyr Gibbs |
| Josh Jacobs |
| Travis Etienne |
| Chuba Hubbard |
| Tony Pollard |
| Dalton Kincaid |
| Sam LaPorta |
| Ricky Pearsall |
| Jacob Cowing |
| Jalen Coker |
| Keon Coleman |
| Jermaine Burton |
| Devaughn Vele |
| Xavier Worthy |
| Adonai Mitchell |
| Josh Downs |
| Alec Pierce |
| Rashod Bateman |
| Cedric Tillman |
| Elijah Moore (One of these days, maybe I will learn) |
| If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out! |
| |
| | | | | USL | | SailGP | The "El Clamico" is back this weekend with a New England matchup between Rhode Island FC and Hartford Athletic at 4 ET this Saturday at 4 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Can Emirates Great Britain get onto the leaderboard in their home territory? SailGP is live this Saturday and Sunday at 11 AM ET on CBS Sports Network!
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
