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| Friday, August 25, 2023 |
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Today's newsletter is all about making sure you're ready for your draft. I've got the latest Draft Day Cheat Sheet right here for you, with everything you need from the Fantasy Football Today team to draft your best possible team. First up: My latest position-by-position and top-200 rankings, right here! |
I've also got a few #AskFFT answers for you, and if you want your emails featured in an upcoming edition of the newsletter – and if I don't get to you in the newsletter, I'll respond personally – send them to Chris.Towers@Paramount.com, with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included. |
| And now, let's get ready to draft. |
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| #AskFFT Mailbag |
| Norm: This question has been gnawing at me for some time: Which is the best general philosophy to take regarding receivers: Would you prefer a primary receiver in a weaker offense or with a weaker QB, or a secondary receiver in a high powered offense? |
There's no one answer to this question, but I don't think this is necessarily the right framing for the question. Production is a function of a combination of talent, opportunity, and team context, and at least when it comes to wide receivers, I think talent is the most important aspect of the equation – more talented players tend to get more opportunities, and they can elevate their team context. Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith are obvious examples of how betting on extremely talented No. 2 wide receivers can pay off, while you can look at a team like the Rams after Cooper Kupp 's injury for an example of how opportunity doesn't really mean anything if the talent isn't there. |
| All other things being equal, I tend to prioritize talent, first with the pass-catchers and then their quarterbacks. If those two things are there, production tends to follow. Players have to get open to get the ball, and they have to have a competent quarterback to get them the ball – if you aren't getting open and your quarterback isn't good, it doesn't really matter whether you are the No. 1 or No. 4 option on your team, you probably aren't going to produce. |
There are exceptions, of course – the 49ers offense scares me because they have so many elite weapons that it will probably be tough for all of them to produce consistently. But hey, there's still a reason I have all of those weapons ranked higher than anyone in Houston or Carolina's passing games. |
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| Don: How do you work out prices for players? Also, how would you adjust prices for a $200 budget? |
| As a general rule, the more money you have to play with in a Salary Cap Draft, the more aggressive I'm going to be with the high-end players. You can still get $1 players in a $200 budget league, so most of that increased salary should be allocated to early-round caliber players – you're not just doubling everyone's projected salary, in other words. I'm still not spending more than $1 on my kicker or DST, and I'm okay with a few $1 bench players at the end of the draft if need be, because I want to be very aggressive with stars. |
As for how I come up with Salaries … that's a good idea for a column, but it would probably take several thousand words to cover, and we don't have time for that. But I will say I start from my own projections and rankings, and try to figure out how much every player is expected to provide above both the replacement-level starter and replacement-level roster spot for every position – I'm assuming one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, and one FLEX spot – and then assign a dollar value for projected scoring above that replacement level. It's not quite that straightforward, of course – my rankings and draft strategies are not just based on my projections, because there are nuances about drafts that projects can't capture – but that's the starting point. This piece from Joe Bryant at FootballGuys.com from a couple of years ago is a good, in-depth introduction to some of those concepts. |
| Jim: I have 4th pick in a 12 team standard 2QB league. If the top 3 QBs are gone should I pick a QB Jefferson or CMC? |
I haven't talked much about 2QB leagues, but I'm happy to say that Heath Cummings published his top-200 for 2QB/SuperFlex leagues here this week. I think there's enough of a dropoff from the top three QBs to the rest of the position that I'd take Jefferson, but the obvious problem there is you're likely going to end up with someone less appealing as your QB1 – Tua Tagovailoa or Anthony Richardson are decent picks for your next time around, but both come with obvious problems that will likely force you to draft a viable third QB just in case either busts for one reason or another. I still think Jefferson is worth that, but it's a consideration. |
| Drew: What is the attraction in James Connor? He will be on one of the worst offenses in the league and doesn't catch passes. |
Conner is kind of a classic Dead Zone RB, in that most of his perceived value comes from what we think is a very safe, projectable role in the Cardinals offense. It should be a bad offense, and I'm not sure Conner is much more than a slightly above average running back, if that, but if he gets 225-plus carries, he's probably going to be a decent value in drafts. |
Of course, we're not just looking for "decent values," are we? A guy you draft as RB25 who finishes as RB16 is a decent value, but he probably didn't actually help you win your Fantasy league, and that would be the concern with Conner. One thing I will say, however, is that Conner has been a productive pass-catcher for the Cardinals when Kyler Murray is out – in eight games over two seasons without Murray, he's averaged five targets and 21.3 Fantasy points per game in PPR scoring. I don't think he'll do that for a full season, obviously, but the passing game role could be better than you think. If he's going to be much more than a small-win type player, that'll likely be how it happens. |
| But for now, here's everything the FFT crew's got for your drafts: |
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| Draft Day Cheat Sheet |
| Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts |
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| QB Preview |
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| RB Preview |
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| WR Preview |
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| TE Preview |
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| Team Previews |
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| Pick-by-Pick Strategies |
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| Mock Drafts |
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| ADP Review |
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| Rankings |
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| Tiers |
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| Mock Drafts |
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 | |  | | | | | Tonight, the NFL on CBS preseason kicks off with the Lions heading to Carolina to take on the rookie quarterback and overall first-draft pick, Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers. The NFL returns tonight at 8 PM ET. Tune In
| | This weekend on CBS, the PGA Tour's FedexCup Playoffs reach their epic conclusion. Thirty of the best players in the world including Scheffler, Hovland and McIlroy will be in the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta with the winner taking home golf's toughest trophy to win. Live coverage begins Saturday at 3 PM ET and continues Sunday at 1:30 PM ET. Watch Live
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