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| Monday, June 24, 2024 |
| If you google the phrase "yards per route run," the results pervasively portray a level of confusion regarding the metric and its relevance. Maybe you've heard the phrase before and wondered why Fantasy football analysts obsess over it. |
| Why does a player's yard-per-route run rate matter so much? Simply, because we say that it does. |
| Fantasy football is a hobby that allows NFL fans to deepen their connection to and love for the game of football. But really, Fantasy football exists as its own unique and sovereign space. It is rarely a reflection of real-life football. Fantasy football results reflect a player's ability to compile whichever arbitrary stats that we as a group decide are worth points. A running back can catch a pass behind the line of scrimmage, trip over his feet, lose yardage, and still accrue Fantasy points. |
| Your Fantasy football league – whether it rewards one, half, or no points per reception, whether it allows you to guess which kicker might send that beautiful oblong ball through the uprights on any given week, whether you're playing to win big money or bragging right over your buddies – whatever your Fantasy football experience may be, it exists separate from the game that we watch on Sundays. Statistics describes real-life football. Fantasy football is produced solely from statistics. The Fantasy football community tends to be a bit obsessive about analytics. |
| Over time, a collective attempt to perfect the process of predicting player statistical outcomes has led to several "made up" analytics that illuminates potential future Fantasy value. Some prove to strongly correlate to Fantasy production, while others settle in as cool descriptors of what we're seeing on the field. |
| A select few of these "made up" stats actually prove to be more predictive of future Fantasy points than a player's past Fantasy point totals! You guessed it, yards per route run is one of those stats! This long-winded intro was in fact my way of pacifying you into a state of acceptance – all stats are made up, nothing is real, and it's time to get on board with the glorious yard per route run movement and win some Fantasy football championships. |
| I invite you to consider approaching Fantasy football through a per-route lens. It's not just yards per route run, there's more! We have access to all sorts of awesome per-route data – targets per route run, yards per route run, even first downs per route run – I believe that this information is the next wave of improving Fantasy football analysis, and it would be my honor and joy to help you learn more about how to apply it and accomplish all of your wildest Fantasy football dreams! |
| I have been using per-route data to help make my Fantasy football dreams (basically just making sure that my little brother never finishes above me in the standings, he talks way too much trash for me to let that happen) come true for the past six years, and this information has helped me to consistently identify values in Fantasy football drafts. The two most recent examples come in the form of 2023 Fantasy football league-winners, Nico Collins and Puka Nacua. |
| In Nacua's case, varying circumstances precluded him from compiling impressive receiving totals during his BYU career, but his production when examined on a per-route basis suggested that Nacua possessed the potential to be a difference maker at the NFL level. I brought this information to Fantasy Football Today's 'Beyond the Boxscore' podcast listeners in May when the Rams Round 5 pick was free in Fantasy drafts, and Nacua joined Nico Collins as one of my most-drafted players in 2023. |
| Collins may seem like an obvious breakout candidate in retrospect, but many Fantasy football drafters were unable to overlook an underwhelming 927 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns compiled across his two initial pro seasons. Many judged Collins at face value after two disappointing seasons, which hardly felt fair given his circumstances. A look under the hood at his per-route data profile suggested that with better health, Collins might be able to produce huge Fantasy results if Houston's offense improved in Year 3. |
| Per-route data is not a cheat code to be followed blindly. As with any other metric, context is important when attempting to understand or apply it. Formation and personnel grouping affect per-route data , for example. With fewer wide receiver teammates on the field to compete for targets with, receivers record stronger per-route rates from two-receiver sets than from three-receiver sets. This factors into teams from the "Kyle Shanahan coaching tree" posting bloated per-route data. No team used three or more receivers at a lower rate than the Mike McDaniel-led Miami Dolphins in 2023, and we saw Tyreek Hill shatter any previous per-route records as a byproduct. |
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| Another important contextual piece to understanding per-route data: sample size is super important. The smaller the sample of routes run, the larger the impact that any single route can have. If a player scores an 80-yard touchdown on a play where his defender slips, that's not in any way indicative of future success. And yet, that singular outcome would have a massive influence on the player's season-long yard per route run rate, which we know to be one of the most predictive statistics available. This phenomenon highlights exactly why first downs per route run are also relevant. In the example just given, a fluke 80-yard touchdown reception results in just one first down. Knowledge of discrepancies that exist between a player's first down and yard per route run rates can potentially highlight fraudulent production that is unlikely to be replicable. |
| I introduced some nuances of per-route data analysis in this space with hopes of sparking your curiosity regarding the potential use cases for per-route data. This information has been instrumental in elevating my game as a Fantasy football player and has deepened my understanding and appreciation for the factors that influence the results that we see on the field. My hope is that you might also find this information to be cool and useful! If I can accomplish that, eventually, per-route data will become normalized and future introductions that I write won't need to be so long! |
| For today's discussion, we're going to focus more on per-route results than any process or theory behind them. Using per-route data, I have highlighted 10 players who I am excitedly targeting in Fantasy football drafts. |
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| Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins |
| Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins joined Tyreek Hill as the only three players to record a yard per route run rate above 3.00 while running 300 or more routes in 2023. Over the past 10 years, Julio Jones (three times), Cooper Kupp (in 2021), and Hill (2022) are the only other such instances, for reference. |
| As alluded to already, Kyle Shanahan's schematic design and frequent use of two-receiver sets boosts per-route stats. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik hails from the Shanahan coaching tree, but Houston actually used three-receiver sets 61% of the time – right in line with the NFL average. The Niners used three-receiver sets only 47% of the time. I filtered out any plays involving two or fewer receivers to see just how much these players benefited from their respective offensive schemes, and what I found was super interesting. |
| Aiyuk's yard per route run rate plummeted from 4.11 with two or fewer receivers on the field to 2.00 on plays with three or more receivers. That 2.00 rate is still strong, ranking 16th among 105 qualified (minimum 200 routes) receivers. Still, the "Shanahan effect" was real. Without filtering out plays with two or fewer receivers on the field, Aiyuk's per-route data looks historically elite. With it, he looked more like Mike Evans or Amari Cooper. |
| Filtering out plays with two or fewer receivers barely impacted the per-route data for Collins. That's an extremely encouraging signal regarding his future outlook. |
| Best single-season yard per route run rates on plays with three or more receivers on the field: |
| (Data courtesy of TruMedia – 2019-2023) |
3.83 – Tyreek Hill (2023)
3.20 – Cooper Kupp (2021)
3.00 – Davante Adams (2020)
2.90 – Tyreek Hill (2022)
2.87 – Nico Collins (2023)
2.85 – Michael Thomas (2019)
2.79 – Davante Adams (2021)
2.74 – Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
2.72 – Justin Jefferson (2022)
2.68 – A.J. Brown (2022)
2.65 – Justin Jefferson (2021)
2.62 – A.J. Brown (2020)
2.60 – A.J. Brown (2023)
2.60 – Puka Nacua (2023) |
| Throw out any preconceived notions you may have had about Nico Collins. The only players on that list who did not go on to post multiple top-10 Fantasy WR point per game seasons were Cooper Kupp and Michael Thomas, each being prevented from doing so by health. Every other receiver on that list went on to achieve continued Fantasy superstardom. Draft Nico Collins. Draft Puka Nacua. |
| Jaylen Waddle |
| If you only look at Jaylen Waddle's 2023 Fantasy point total, his third season was a disappointment. However, on a per-route basis, Waddle actually improved across the board. As is usually the case when I find a discrepancy between a player's per-route data and public perception, the culprit is health. Waddle's route total dropped from 523 in 2022 to 378 in 2023 as he contended with a variety of injuries. When on the field, Waddle was spectacular. |
| Even when filtering to exclude plays with two or fewer receivers on the field, Waddle remained top-10 at the WR position in targets, first downs, and yards per route run. If you were comfortable drafting Waddle in 2023, enjoy his discounted 2023 price! All indications are that Waddle remains an ascending talent with the potential to be the league's top yardage creator at the wide receiver position while attached to this Mike McDaniels-designed offense. |
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| Keenan Allen |
| After his yard per route run rate dropped for five straight seasons from 2017-2021, Keenan Allen has displayed signs of a late-career resurgence. Allen's rate spiked from 1.78 yards in 2021 to 2.14 in 2022, but I wasn't sure if we could trust it as he only played 10 games. Across a much larger sample size in 2023, Allen turned in an even better rate of 2.37 yards. A rookie quarterback and new offensive environment present scary trends for an aging receiver, but those factors feel already priced into his average draft position. Allen's per-route rates over the past two seasons show no signs of decline, making him an intriguing bet when he falls in drafts. |
| Christian Kirk |
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| After crushing it to the tune of the Fantasy WR12 overall finish in 2022, Christian Kirk actually improved his per-route rates in his second season with the Jags. He only played 12 games so many don't realize it, but Kirk was awesome for an otherwise dysfunctional offense. If extrapolated over his 2022 route total (618), Kirk's 2023 yard per route run rate would yield 1,286 receiving yards. |
| DeAndre Hopkins |
| With a yard per route run rate that actually came in just above Kirk's, DeAndre Hopkins lowkey balled out in his first season with the Titans. He was more efficient at turning his route running opportunities into yardage than fellow aging receiver Davante Adams in similarly subpar situations. I expect the new-look Titans to throw the ball as much as possible in 2023, and Hopkins has the potential to post some shocking stats if able to maintain even 90 percent of his per-route effectiveness from 2023 over an increased route total. |
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| Trey McBride |
If your Fantasy team was competing for a late-season title push in 2023, you likely felt the gravity of Trey McBride's
emergence. His per-route data provides a truly stunning illustration of how impressive his second pro season was. T.J. Hockenson has never topped two yards per route run in a season, McBride did it in his age-24 season. McBride ranked first at TE in targets and first downs per route run and was second in yards per route run. Sam LaPorta outscored him on the year, but McBride's 2.04 yards per route run was way ahead of LaPorta's 1.76 mark. |
| McBride's 2023 per-route data comes closer to the early-career rates of true difference makers at the position (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews) than any young tight end we've had since that era. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s presence may lower McBride's target rates, but the two draw targets at completely different areas of the field. On average, McBride's targets came just 6.6 yards from the line of scrimmage in 2023. It seems likely that McBride will again soak up targets in the short and underneath area while MHJ works the intermediate-deep levels of the field. |
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| Michael Pittman |
| Michael Pittman posted by far the best per-route data of his career in 2023. Those results were in part due to his own improved play. Pittman's 2023 PFF receiving grade (80.0) was the highest mark of his career. |
| It's worth noting that his per-route data was also heavily influenced by the offensive design of Shane Steichen. The Colts led the league in run-pass option (RPO) plays, and Pittman had far more RPO production than anyone else. He scored roughly double the PPR points from RPO's that the next-highest receiver finished with. |
| I'd expect something similar in 2024. In fact, we might even see Steichen draw up more RPO plays with Anthony Richardson at QB. The result could be another massive target rate for Pittman. And with a healthy Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs joining Richardson, along with a potentially substantial improved field-stretcher on the perimeter with Adonai Mitchell (I have my concerns) taking over for Alec Pierce (it won't take much to improve here), it's going to be tough for opposing defenses to key on any one player in this offense. |
| Pittman's target per route run rate was nearly as high as Amon-Ra St. Brown's (28.5%) and Puka Nacua's (28.0%) in 2023, that's the type of target volume that we may realistically be looking at in an RPO-heavy offense. RPO usage concentrates target shares on the offense's top WR, because that player is almost always where the ball is going to go. Exactly half of Indy's RPO targets went to Pittman in 2023, that's nuts. They're quick-hitting targets that aren't all that efficient for Fantasy purposes, but in leagues where receptions accrue points, RPO targets add up quickly. And there may a ton of them. This offense employed an extremely fast pace of play with Richardson healthy in 2023. If we see Steichen use a similar approach in 2024, Pittman could legitimately lead the NFL in targets. |
| Rashid Shaheed |
| Since entering the NFL, Shaheed ranks 25th at WR in yards per route run, ahead of Pittman, DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Terry McLaurin. Shaheed hasn't been targeted at nearly as high of a rate as those players, but he's been super efficient with his opportunities. |
| Opportunities have been the limiting factor thus far. In 2024, the undrafted Shaheed saw his route participation rate double to 66%. That's not enough of a role to allow Shaheed to give us any sort of trustworthy Fantasy outlook, but it was a step in the right direction. We saw signs in Year 2 that the Saints might trust him as a full-time player in the future. Shaheed posted a route participation rate above 80% in six different games in 2023, including a 93% rate as a starter against the Rams in Week 16. That gives us a 10-game sample on Shaheed running a route on at least 80% of the Saints dropbacks. |
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| Shaheed is easy button where he goes in drafts, and he may end up being a massive value if he takes a step forward in Year 3 or if the Saints offense is better. |
| Diontae Johnson |
| Diontae Johnson is exactly the type of wide receiver that the Carolina Panthers needed. He gets open and moves the chains. Johnson was one of just 18 receivers to post a double-digit first down per route run rate in 2023. He finished ahead of Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman, and Amari Cooper in that metric. |
| If Johnson assumes most of the volume that Adam Thielen saw in 2023, he's going to be a value. He may easily eclipse Thielen's 2023 rates. Johnson has a history of hogging targets in a way that Thielen has never shown. |
| After only drawing a target on 15.9% of his routes in 2022, Thielen posted a 21.6% target per route run rate in his first season with the Panthers. For reference, Diontae Johnson's rate has ranged between 23.9% and 27.6% over the past four seasons. Thielen finished as Fantasy's WR17 in PPR scoring. He had one of the most Fantasy-friendly "PPR scamming" roles, to quote Hayden Winks and Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy. |
| The difference between a 33-year-old Thielen and Johnson in the prime of his career is extremely wide when it comes to earning targets. ESPN's "open score" has Thielen ranked 39th at the wide receiver position with a grade of '60' over the past three seasons combined. Johnson ranks first with an open grade of '92'; he and A.J. Brown (91) are the only two receivers with a grade above 85. Justin Jefferson (84), Tyreek Hill (81), and Stefon Diggs (81) are the only other receivers with open grades above 80 during that time. Johnson has struggled with drops, his efficiency has left a lot to be desired while receiving targets from Kenny Pickett and the likes, but he is absolutely one of the best when it comes to getting open. |
| That ability has helped Johnson demand targets at an elite rate -- among qualified receivers, only eight have a higher target per route run rate across the 2020-2023 seasons. Displayed below is the range in which Johnson falls, for reference. |
| Target per route run rate (2020-2023): |
Davante Adams -- 30.4%
Tyreek Hill -- 29.2%
Cooper Kupp -- 27.2%
A.J. Brown -- 27.0%
Keenan Allen -- 26.7%
Stefon Diggs -- 26.6%
Justin Jefferson -- 26.1%
Diontae Johnson -- 25.9%
CeeDee Lamb -- 25.4%
DeAndre Hopkins -- 25.2%
Deebo Samuel -- 25.0% |
| Johnson's rate has been pulled down by the past two seasons, as the Steelers drastically changed his role. |
Diontae Johnson's average route depth by season:
(Target per route run rate in parentheses) |
2020 -- 6.2 yards (27.6%)
2021 -- 6.2 yards (27.5%)
2022 -- 9.4 yards (23.9%)
2023 -- 9.5 yards (23.9%) |
| Before moving into a far more downfield-oriented role, Johnson was posting elite target rates on par with Cooper Kupp and A.J. Brown. The Panthers have said that Johnson will fill the "X receiver" role, so maybe we'll continue to see him mostly working the deep area of the field. His route depth may come down, though. And that would likely be a good thing for Fantasy. |
| Average route depth refers to the average distance from the line of scrimmage at which a route runner's initial cut comes. Wide receivers with an average route depth above nine yards had an average target per route run rate of 19% in 2023. Receivers with a route depth below nine yards had a target per route run rate of 21%. Thielen's rate was 7.2 yards, for reference. Receivers with a route depth below eight yards had a target per route run rate of 23% . Running a more downfield-oriented route tree, as Johnson was asked to do in 2022 and 2023, typically results in a decrease in targets. That's exactly what we saw reflected in Johnson's target rates. On routes where his initial cut came eight yards or fewer downfield, Johnson still posted an elite target per route run rate (34% in 2022 and 32% in 2023). |
| Thielen's target per route run rate increased by 36% from his final season with Minnesota to his first season with Carolina. Thielen's move into the WR1 role resulted in a shortened route tree and a drastic increase in targets. It's easy to get excited about what this type of transition could mean for Johnson, who has displayed a target-earning ability that is far beyond anything ever shown by Thielen. Thielen's highest single-season target per route run rate (25.9% in 2017) was his only mark above 24%. It's possible that Johnson could notably out-pace the 2023 target rate that led to a top-20 Fantasy WR season from Thielen. |
| Carolina averaged an embarrassingly low 265 yards of offense per game in 2023, the lowest single-season mark of any team over the past five seasons. The 2024 offseason moves from the Panthers organization suggest that last season's abysmal offensive output catalyzed to prioritize providing Bryce Young with a healthier offensive environment. Given Johnson's track record of target hogging, I'm expecting him to work as the clear-cut top target in this offense. That might not amount to much if Young's second attempt isn't any better than his forgettable rookie campaign. My projections do show Johnson to be one of the clearest values at any position. This reminds me a bit of Christian Kirk's first season in Jacksonville. I'm buying Johnson at this price point. He's one of my most-rostered receivers, even if I'm not particularly enthused about it. |
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