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| Friday, March 12, 2021 |
| One of the benefits of being subscribed to this newsletter has to be the fact that you've pretty much got a direct line to our Fantasy analysts. Want to get your questions answered? You can shoot an email to me at Chris.Towers@CBSinteractive.com or to FantasyFootball@CBSi.com and you can make sure someone on the Fantasy Football Today team is going to see it. I'm happy to answer whatever questions you might have, but one thing we'll be doing all offseason is weekly mailbags from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings. |
| Got a keeper question? Send it over. Want to know how the latest transactions change a player's outlook? Just ask! This week, Dave is taking over the newsletter, answering questions from our readers and listeners about how Dak Prescott's contract impacts his outlook as well as a slew of keeper questions looking ahead to the 2021 season. |
| Next week, we'll have wall-to-wall coverage of the start of free agency, with daily podcasts, breaking news reactions, and all the latest sent right to your inbox here. And, if you've got any questions about this week's news, by all means, hit us up! |
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| Dave Richard's Friday mailbag |
| The guy signed a contract -- it's not like he got dealt to the Jets. How could his Fantasy stock slide down? Because he finally got paid? Nah, Dak doesn't strike me as that kind of guy. His health matters the most because his consistency has been stellar. |
| Prescott has finished sixth, 12th, 14th, and second among quarterbacks in Fantasy points per year from 2016 through 2019, plus he ranked third in overall points through the first four weeks of the 2020 season. Prescott's pedigree suggests his downside won't crush you unless he misses time and that his upside can help you win a title. |
| He remains at the helm of an offense with a good-when-healthy offensive line and a heck of a receiving corps. Head coach Mike McCarthy and playcaller Kellen Moore aren't going to suddenly become conservative and run the football a ton. Prescott has a lock on being highly involved and asked to throw (and run) a bunch. |
| So the only key is his health. He's had two ankle surgeries since breaking it last October and believes he'll "be ready when it matters." If he misses a chunk of training camp or if his status for Week 1 is in jeopardy, then he'll get downgraded. Otherwise, the prospect of Prescott throwing over and over in a high-powered offense that figures to be in a bunch of high-scoring games is delightful to think about. Expect him to be a tremendous value on Draft Day as the fourth-through-sixth quarterback off the board. |
| FROM THE INBOX |
| Hey Dave, |
| Would you rather keep: Davante Adams (and give up a 2nd round pick) or AJ Brown (and give up a 14th round pick)? Other consideration is I could keep Brown for only one year, Adams for up to two. |
| Thanks, |
| Chris |
| If you ever wanted to know how I think about draft-compensation keeper questions, here's your shot to have a little peek into my brain. |
| First, for only a second, I forget about what a Fantasy manager would have to give up to keep players. I think only about the players. So in this case I would think: Brown's awesome, but keeping Adams for up to two more years? Yeah I think I'd much rather have Adams. Easy call. |
| Now I think about the compensation in relation to the players. Adams figures to be a first-rounder in his age-28 season in all 2021 leagues. He could be right there again in 2022. But there's no way Brown will be anywhere near Round 14 this year. He's more like a third-rounder, especially in a keeper format. |
| Then I think about what I want for dinner. Tacos sound good! Oh, wait. I had tacos last night. And your point is .... ? |
| Yeah, sometimes I have conversations about food with myself. Big whoop, wanna fight about it? |
| Keeping Adams for a small discount this year and, theoretically, next year isn't bad. But going with Brown is better in two ways: One, the obvious late-round value he provides -- Chris can draft some excellent dudes with his early-round picks and still bring Brown to this year's lineup with a throwaway pick. Two, being unable to keep Brown next year opens Chris up for business to draft and keep someone else for 2022 and beyond. Plus, tacos. |
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| All right, more tacos! I mean, more keeper dilemmas. |
| Using the same logic as before: I have Kelce ranked ahead of Robinson in PPR, so that's who I would take first without giving up any draft picks. And I had Robinson higher in non-PPR, but that was before Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke told the media that the Jaguars "have to add some explosive to that room as well and we have to be able to take some of the carries off of James. You can only ride a horse so long." |
| What a bubble buster Baalke is. Don't let that guy near the NBA Top Shot marketplace. |
| Both are clearly steals, but Robinson's late-round value trumps Kelce's. I think that's the difference here -- Robinson is the better keeper. |
| Now, Ryan didn't mention how long he could keep these guys at these values. I assumed it was for a year and that's it. If for any reason Robinson can be kept at a late value for more than a year, then he's basically screaming KEEP ME KEEP ME. There's way too much potential there to let go of. |
| By the way, we knew Robinson wasn't going to repeat his 20.6 touches per game from 2020, didn't we? The Jaguars are going to be smart with his work in 2021. Hopefully, they don't crush his passing-downs value with a gifted speedster with reliable hands in the third or fourth round of the draft. That would stink -- but it wouldn't be enough to change my answer. |
| FROM THE INBOX |
| Hey Dave, |
| Thanks to CBS' wonderful fantasy analysts I am a three-time defending champ of my home keeper league. I have a tough decision going into next season and would love your advice. |
| Keep three in a PPR league losing the round the player was drafted in: |
Travis Kelce round 1
Deandre Hopkins round 2
Stefon Diggs round 3
Miles Sanders round 4
Aaron Jones round 7
Lamar Jackson round 7
Calvin Ridley round 8 |
Thank you!
Joe |
| Going through my typical routine isn't going to necessarily help much. In fact, I wonder if going through the process of ignoring draft values even matters at all since I've taken the lesser players but better values in each of the previous keeper questions I've answered. This one's going to be different. |
| Let's first agree that Ridley and Jones in Rounds 8 and 7 respectively are impossible to pass up. If I told you to throw those guys back, you shouldn't listen to me anymore. Listen to Jamey or Heath or Chris or even Adam, but not me. It's bad advice to NOT keep great players at great values. Even if Jones is on a different team, he will warrant a pick much much higher than the seventh round. |
| That leaves us with one final keeper to stick with. The best value of the group is probably Jackson -- I don't expect him to last into Round 7 in very many drafts. But Joe's in a PPR keeper league, and Diggs just led the league in receptions and finished as the third-best wideout in PPR points per game in 2020. He isn't as great of a value because he figures to be a Round 2 or 3 pick in drafts this coming summer, but that's where I'd lean. You'll be ahead of the league at receiver before the draft even starts. |
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| For those not up to speed on prospects, Pitts is Florida's incredibly athletic tight end. Among other things, he had 12 touchdowns on 43 receptions last season with 17.9 yards per catch. Our Dan Schneier profiled him as part of our prospect profile series, and here's a reel to make you drool. |
| In a two-TE league like the one PhillyPhan is in, Pitts deserves priority consideration. And if PhillyPhan had better running backs, I'd say Pitts would be worth the 1.02 provided his landing spot is good. But PhillyPhan listed only two running backs on his squad -- Miles Sanders and Antonio Gibson. I'd feel a little naked with those guys as my only rushers, and I'd feel incredibly silly passing on either Travis Etienne or Najee Harris with my first rookie pick if I needed long-term running back help. |
| The move I'd make is to try and turn one or two of Phan's SEVEN stud receivers into either a running back I can feel good about for at least the next two seasons, or an early pick in the rookie draft. This way I can get everything I want -- Pitts and a running back to balance out my depth. But if I can't do that, then I think I'd prefer to take a back over Pitts at 1.02. |
| I'd like to meet the person silly enough to say Jefferson is overrated and should be sold high. I doubt this person actually exists. But there are plen-tee of folks who simply don't believe the Vikings will be as pass-friendly in 2021 as they were in 2020, and that might be why selling Jefferson high is an idea worth considering. |
| We know Mike Zimmer likes a balanced, if not run-first, approach. People have been fired for calling too many passes in Minnesota. And the track record of Vikings pass attempts under Zimmer has typically been low. |
| But there's something to be said for being in an offense that funnels targets to its playmakers instead of a spread-the-ball-around mindset. Kirk Cousins has reliably favored wide receivers, and Jefferson's role as a dangerous threat doesn't figure to alter that approach. Jefferson is easily a candidate to see at least the 125 targets he had in 2020. Better yet, he should become a brighter figure inside the 10-yard line -- he had just eight such targets in all of last season. |
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