ALSO: The fly on U.S. Vice President's Mike Pence's head might be a harbinger of price volatility
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Oct. 8, 2020
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By the CoinDesk Markets Team
Edited by Bradley Keoun
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TODAY:
  • Bitcoin (BTC) 0.6% $10,607 | Ether (ETH) -1.1% $338 (@11:42 UTC)
  • Price Point: Bitcoin was lower, still stuck in the past two weeks' range between $10,500 and $10,800, though price volatility is expected soon. 
  • Market Moves: Congestion has eased on the Ethereum network, helping to bring down fees that had been deemed exorbitant. The relief appears to have come from a slowdown in trading on DeFi-based exchanges.
  • Bitcoin Watch: Options market reveals some traders see prices capped at $16,000 through end of year, CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole writes.  
  • What's Hot: BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes steps down from role as CEO, holders of Aave's LEND tokens migrate to AAVE tokens, CFTC's Harbert worries on U.S. blockchain leadership, Riot buys 2.5K of Bitmain's S19 Pro Antimers.  

PRICE POINT

Bitcoin was lower, continuing this week’s seesaw action, though prices were still trapped in the past two week’s tight range between about $10,500 and $10,800. 

In traditional markets, European stocks rose and U.S. futures pointed to a higher open, fueled by optimism over additional forthcoming stimulus spending. 

With less than a month to go until an unusually contentious and potentially momentous U.S. presidential election, the highlight of a nationally televised debate came when a fly landed on Vice President Mike Pence’s forehead.
 
The campaign might yet yield surprises that could spark market volatility, Lennard Neo, head of research for the cryptocurrency-focused Stack Funds, wrote Thursday in a weekly report

“Given the upcoming elections, we should expect bitcoin price to continue consolidating forward in the near term while expecting news-driven volatility along the way,” Neo wrote. 

MARKET MOVES

A slowdown in cryptocurrency trading on so-called decentralized exchanges has helped to alleviate congestion on the Ethereum blockchain, at least temporarily mitigating concerns that the network was becoming overloaded.

The trading lull comes as prices tumble for many of the hottest tokens from the fast-growing arena of decentralized finance, or DeFi. SushiSwap’s SUSHI token, one of this year’s  splashiest debuts , fell by 77% in the past 30 days, while the DeFi lender Compound’s COMP tokens lost 37%.

On Uniswap, the biggest decentralized exchange, or DEX, daily trading volumes have crashed to $224 million, versus a record high of $954 million on Sept. 1. 

“Low volatility in the crypto market as a whole has contributed to lower transaction volume and costs,” said Connor Abendschein, a crypto research analyst at Digital Assets Data.

DeFi, a subsector of the cryptocurrency industry where entrepreneurs are developing semi-automated trading and lending platforms atop blockchain networks, had surged in popularity in recent months among investors and traders alike. But the resulting congestion raised concerns that elevated fees for sending transactions over the blockchain might stymie some users, or push application developers to consider alternative networks

- Omkar Godbole

Read More: As DeFi Deflates, Ethereum Users Get Reprieve From Soaring Fees, Congestion


Daily transactions on the Ethereum blockchain. (Glassnode) 

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BITCOIN WATCH



CME bitcoin options volume. (Skew)

Bitcoin remains comatose around $10,600 even though optimism has returned to equity markets. 

S&P 500 futures are pointing to a positive open with a 0.53% gain. Stock markets in Asia and Europe eked out gains earlier today on renewed expectations for an additional U.S. fiscal stimulus. 

The "risk-on" is weighing over the safe haven U.S. dollar in the forex market. So far, however, that dollar weakness hasn't propelled bitcoin higher. 

The top cryptocurrency is currently trading around $10,600, down 0.6% on the day. 

And while the cryptocurrency remains stuck in a narrowing price range for the third week, activity in options listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has picked up the pace. 

CME options trading volume surged by 300% to $48 million on Wednesday. The surge was fueled by increased activity in call options, according to Emmanuel Goh, CEO of crypto derivatives research firm Skew. 

Traders likely employed bull spreads by buying December expiry call options at $14,000 and simultaneously selling December expiry calls at $16,000. Similarly, calls expiring in March 2021 were bought at $18,000 and sold at $20,000.

These traders foresee bitcoin price rally, but believe the upside will be capped near $16,000 till the end of this year and $20,000 in the fist quarter of 2021.

- Omkar Godbole

Read More: Bitcoin Options Volume on CME Jumps 300% as Traders Take Bullish Bets

The move to ETH 2.0 will bring the Ethereum network ever closer to fulfilling its original vision: that of a "world computer" that plays host to a parallel, decentralized financial system. Will it be the rocket fuel that takes Ethereum's financial engine mainstream?  

CoinDesk's invest: ethereum economy virtual event Oct. 14 will address the ramifications for investors of the sweeping changes underway within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Keynote speakers and panelists including Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman and CEO Heath P. Tarbert will offer deep dives into Ethereum’s adoption of a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, sharding and other elements of its impending 2.0 upgrade, as well how the new framework impacts the rapidly advancing business of DeFi, stablecoins and decentralized exchanges.

Register to join invest: ethereum economy on Oct. 14.

TOKEN WATCH

EOS (EOS): Alternative blockchain's ecosystem gets boost for trading liquidity as non-custodial digital-asset exchanger Eosfinex launches beta version, though Google Cloud does not intend to take EOS rewards as a block producer

Aave (LEND, AAVE): Blockchain data reveal increasing large-volume transactions in LEND tokens, suggesting "whale" accounts are migrating to the new AAVE governance tokens, IntoTheBlock writes .  

WHAT'S HOT

BitMEX's Arthur Hayes steps down from CEO role a week after U.S. charges announced (CoinDesk)

Japanese financial firm SBI buys Japanese crypto exchange TaoTao after Binance talks end (CoinDesk)

Coinbase "apolitical" stance might just be conservative stance (CoinDesk Opinion) 

CFTC Chair Tarbert tells Morgan Creek Digital's Anthony Pompliano that he wants to "support innovation in this space," especially with "other countries coming in and starting to potentially take the lead" (BeInCrypto) 

Non-fungible token and accompanying digital portrait of Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto sells for $131,250 in Christie's auction (Decrypt)


In an economic environment where inflation-adjusted interest rates are negative, the next big round of stimulus could become a "tailwind" for bitcoin and other "zero-yield" assets, Lyn Alden writes (CoinDesk Opinion)

Bitcoin mining company Riot Blockchain has bought another 2,500 S19 Pro Antminer rigs as the publicly traded firm races to quadruple its mining power (CoinDesk)

The U.S. Treasury Department is evaluating the merits of a government-sponsored digital currency (CoinDesk)

The latest quarterly review from CoinDesk Research is out! In this 24-chart report, we look at major developments in crypto markets over the third quarter, focusing on growth in stablecoin liquidity, surging interest in decentralized finance applications, and the notable uptick in crypto derivatives volumes.

Download the free report from our Research Hub

ANALOGS
The latest on the economy and traditional finance

March bond-market tumult stemmed partly from Wall Street dealers' limited capacity to supply liquidity, and subsequent episodes of stress "will likely continue to be dependent on the kinds of massive market interventions that the Federal Reserve was forced to make" (Bank Policy Institute)

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are concerned a lack of stimulus approved by Congress could lead to bad times (CNBC)

Citigroup agrees to $400M fine over "significant ongoing deficiencies" in risk-management systems (WSJ)

Japan's 3 main mobile phone carriers are expected to cut their rates ahead of the country's new prime minister Yoshihide Suga's calls to slash fees (Nikkei Asian Review)

A Democratic victory in next month’s U.S. election could help boost Asian stocks (Bloomberg)

TWEET OF THE DAY

It seems like every investor has a thesis about how to best play the cryptocurrency opportunity, but who’s right? 

CoinDesk has launched The Thesis, a weekly podcast with Senior Markets Reporter Daniel Cawrey that looks at the most important stories and trends for traders and unique interviews with top fund managers digging deeply into their viewpoint - their thesis.

Tune into The Thesis at 9 a.m. ET on the first and third Saturday of each month.Listen to the first episode featuring Jake Brukhman of CoinFund.

Ethereum’s highly anticipated 2.0 upgrade is poised to bring the network ever closer to fulfilling its original vision to be a “world computer” that plays host to a parallel, decentralized financial system. 

At invest: ethereum economy on Oct. 14, we will address the ramifications for investors as decentralized finance takes the crypto world by storm. 

In a run-up to the event, our two-part CoinDesk Live: Inside the Ethereum Economy virtual miniseries on Oct. 8 and Oct. 12 introduces trending narratives we will break down at the main event: Why all the hype behind yield farming and food-inspired tokens? Should investors take them seriously or are they a fading trend?

On Oct. 8, CoinDesk senior business reporter Brady Dale hosts Priyanka Desai of Open Law, Mason Nystrom of Messari and Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX to assess the newest crazes sweeping the DeFi landscape.

Watch DeGeneration: How Ethereum Is Making Finance Weird on Oct. 8.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
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