A message from Zondacrypto

Bitcoin and ether dipped during the Asian morning on Monday amid renewed fears of U.S. stagflation. Bitcoin was down around 2% at $62,345 at the time of writing, while ether was 4% lower at $3,170. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the most liquid digital assets, was also down around 4%."The weaker than expected [U.S.] GDP print points to a more sluggish economy while the higher Core PCE warns of an inflation problem that continues to be a thorn in the Fed's side," QCP wrote in a note over the weekend. The stagflationary combination of slower growth rate and sticky inflation has further weakened the probability of the Fed rate cuts.

Slowdown in bitcoin ETF inflows is a short-term pause and not the beginning of a negative trend, broker Bernstein wrote in a research report on Monday. “There is a natural gestation time to bitcoin becoming an acceptable portfolio allocation recommendation and the platforms establishing the compliance framework to sell bitcoin ETF products,” analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote. The broker added that there is no clear momentum up or down in bitcoin, which has been largely range-bound since the halving. Bernstein's expectation is that BTC hits a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025, owing to "unprecedented ETF demand inflows."

The first spot bitcoin ETFs could be approved in Australia by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported. At least two entities - DigitalX andVanEck - have applied to list such funds with the Australian Securities Exchange and another one is working on it, according to the report. ASX accounts for 90% of the Australian enquiry market. Its smaller rival Cboe Australia received an application to list a spot BTC ETF earlier this month from Monochrome Asset Management. Momentum for bitcoin ETFs has been building in the Asia-Pacific region for some months, culminating in Hong Kong officially approving the first batch of funds last week.

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The bitcoin bull market might have already ended, according to one veteran chart analyst. Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor LLC, suggested that BTC may have peaked at its recent price high near $74,000, based on historical data.

This is in contrast to his previous prediction that the bitcoin bull market could extend to September next year and peak as high as $200,000.

The latest projection is based on a statistical concept called “exponential decay,” which describes the process of reducing an amount by a consistent percentage rate over a period.

“Bitcoin has historically traded within an approximately 4yr bull/bear cycle, often associated with the halving events. There have been three major bull market cycles since the initial bull cycle and each cycle has been 80% less powerful than its predecessor in terms of the price multiple gained,” Brandt said.

If this pattern holds true, bitcoin's high of $73,835 on March 14 marked a price consistent with the historical exponential decay, he added.

- Omkar Godbole