Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team - Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn March 25, 2021 Sponsored by (Price data as of Mar. 25 @11:00 UTC) Good morning. Here's what we're writing about:
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Market Moves by OMKAR GODBOLE Bitcoin Options Traders Position for Gains (to $80K?) in Historically Bullish April
Some bitcoin (BTC) options traders are betting that this year’s price rally, which paused in recent weeks, will resume in April – historically a strong month for the market.
Among options listed on the dominant Deribit exchange with an April 30 expiry, the most common open position is the $80,000 call, data shared by the options analytics platform Laevitas shows. Deribit is the world’s largest crypto options exchange by trading volumes and open interest.
That’s a sign of high price expectations for April, as noted on Twitter by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Jann Allemann. Bitcoin is currently changing hands around $53,000, up 83% on the year. But the market has stagnated since reaching an all-time high above $61,000 on March 13.
As highlighted by CoinDesk on Wednesday, the near-term focus in the bitcoin options market is on this Friday’s March expiry, where a record $6 billion of contracts are set to come due, with some analysts warning of an extreme pullback to what’s known as the “max pain” point, seen at $44,000.
But if that expiry comes and goes without any major price fluctuations, the bullish bets for April would come into view.
A call option gives the purchaser the right but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. Essentially, it’s a bullish bet on the underlying asset.
Bitcoin options open interest, April 30 expiry (Source: Laevitas, Deribit) Theoretically, the $80,000 call represents a bet that bitcoin would settle above that level on April 30. That doesn’t necessarily mean buyers of the $80,000 call option are anticipating a rally above that level by the end of April.
Traders often purchase deep out-of-the-money calls even when expecting a moderate bull run, because they can gain significant value as prices rise, yielding handsome returns on a small investment.
Bitcoin's monthly returns since 2010 (Source: Coin Metrics, CoinDesk)
Statistically speaking, the seasonality for April is biased bullish.
Historical data shows bitcoin has chalked out gains in April in eight out of the last ten years.
--Omkar Godbole
Read the original story here: Bitcoin Options Traders Position for Gains (to $80K?) in Historically Bullish April
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Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes Bitcoin Stabilizes After Selloff, Resistance Seen Around $56K
The near 10% selloff in bitcoin (BTC) during Asian hours has stabilized around $52,000. Bitcoin is now oversold on the four-hour chart, which could support a slight recovery towards $56,000.
Four-hour BTC chart shows oversold RSI with support and resistance levels (Source: Trading View)
--Damanick Dantes Original story found here: Bitcoin Stabilizes After Selloff, Resistance Seen Around $56K
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ICYMI In case you missed it, here's this past Friday's episode of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:
Musk: Buy Tesla With Bitcoin; Powell-Yellen Hearings Continue Elon Musk announces acceptance of BTC for Teslas. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen prepare for a second day of congressional hearings. Leaders of three different types of major crypto exchanges join "First Mover" with markets analysis and their news. Discussions with Antonio Juliano of decentralized exchange dYdX and Pankaj Balani of Delta, a derivatives exchange.
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