The latest moves in crypto markets, in context By Jamie Crawley, CoinDesk News Reporter Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here. |
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Welcome to a new week! Here’s what you need to know in crypto today. |
- Bitcoin rises above $58,500 during the European morning.
- Traders are wary of September being a historically bearish month for BTC.
- Trump's White House prospects rise to 51% on Polymarket.
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CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,843.91 +0.88% Bitcoin (BTC): $58,458 +0.67% Ether (ETH: $2,519 +1.89% S&P 500: 5,658 +1% Gold: $2400 −0.15% Nikkei 225: 38,700.87 +0.14% |
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Bitcoin fluctuated around the $58,000 mark amid a generally sedate market on Labor Day in the U.S. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $58,600 at the time of writing, about 1% higher in 24 hours. The broader digital asset market has risen 0.9%%, according to CoinDesk Indices data, with ETH and SOL gaining around 1.9% and 0.5%, respectively. U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking BTC posted total net outflows of $175 million on Friday, extending a losing streak to four days. Ether ETFs had zero net inflows or outflows despite $173 million in trading volume, data tracked by SoSoValue shows. |
Some traders noted that September is generally one of bitcoin's most bearish months, but said that an interest-rate cut by the Fed could break the trend. “September is a historically negative month for bitcoin, as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%,” Innokenty Isers, founder of crypto exchange Paybis, said. “Should the Feds cut the interest rate in September, it might help bitcoin rewrite its negative history as rate cuts generally lead to excessive US dollar flow in the economy – further strengthening the outlook of bitcoin as a store of value.” Election punters on Polymarket are favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump again as Democrat Kamala Harris’ odds slipped to 47% over the weekend from even odds earlier. Harris’ appeal has drifted lower in the past weeks among traders on Polymarket, while Trump’s has gradually climbed back over 50%. He is again in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds. Traders have placed $99 million in on-chain bets on Trump winning the election, with over $95 million put on Harris. Harris’ odds have slipped amid outcry for a proposal to tax unrealized gains for people worth over $100 million. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have increased as he promotes a forthcoming decentralized finance project that could offer “high yields” for crypto users. |
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Market Insight: Key Week for Bitcoin and the Dollar Index |
U.S. economic data due this week will likely determine whether the dollar resumes the two-month weakening trend, offering a tailwind for risk assets. The releases start Tuesday with the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index for August. A weak PMI reading will strengthen the case for interest-rate cuts, sending the dollar lower and boosting demand for riskier assets. Interest-rate markets are already pricing a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. "A weaker U.S. dollar is good for BTC, as it tends to boost monetary liquidity by lowering the cost of capital. Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, said in last week's edition. "Plus, expectations of continued dollar weakness highlight the utility of a dollar hedge and should boost spending power in other jurisdictions. And, the dollar is the denominator of the most-quoted pair (BTC/USD)," |
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- The chart shows that bitcoin miners' revenue dipped in August to their lowest level since September 2023.
- This was accompanied by an increase in the bitcoin mining difficulty and decrease in the number of BTC mined.
- This highlights the challenge that miners face in adapting to the post-halving world.
- Source: Bitbo
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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