Oct. 11 2024

CoinDesk 20 Index: 1,908.58  +1.34%
Bitcoin (BTC): $61,001.69  -0.04%
Ether (ETH): $2,410.36  +0.74% 
S&P 500: 5,780.05  -0.21%
Gold: $2,640.19  +0.28%
Nikkei 225: 39,605.80  +0.57%

Following its 4% slide during U.S. hours on Thursday, bitcoin regained some ground to trade above $61,000 on Friday. BTC fell to $59,000 following a U.S. CPI report that showed hotter-than-expected inflation in September, seemingly putting paid to hopes of another 50 basis-point interest-rate cut by the Fed next month. The bounce left BTC about 0.25% higher than 24 hours ago. The broader digital asset market showed stronger gains of 1.65%, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index. XRP and DOGE led the way, adding around 2.5% and 2% respectively.

Donald Trump's odds of a return to the White House surged to a more than two-month high on Polymarket. Traders are giving the former president a 55.8% shot versus Vice President Kamala Harris' 43.8% on the prediction market site, where more than $1.6 billion has been wagered on the November election. Trump's chances have risen to levels last seen days after President Joe Biden said he wouldn't seek reelection, clearing the way for Harris to take over. Another prediction market, Kalshi, which just recently won permission to list contracts based on U.S. elections, also shows Trump in the lead over Harris: 52% to 48%.

Crypto exchange Bitnomial filed suit against the SEC, saying the regulator overextended its jurisdiction in seeking to regulate a proposed XRP futures contract together with the CFTC. In a Thursday filing with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, the company said the futures fall solely in the CFTC's remit and the SEC's involvement would add significantly to the company's regulatory burden. The exchange self-certified that the XRP futures did not violate the CFTC's regulations on Aug. 9, it said. "Bitnomial disagrees with the SEC’s view that XRP is an investment contract and, therefore, a security, and that XRP Futures are thus security futures," it said in the filing.

The bearish sentiment toward ether remains pronounced relative to bitcoin even as DeFi enthusiast Republican candidate Donald Trump extended his lead over Democrat rival Kamala Harris in prediction markets tied to the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.

Ether's 25-delta risk reversals for shorter and longer duration expiries were more negative than bitcoin's, according to data sources Amberdata and Deribit. That's a sign of stronger bearish sentiment toward ETH.

Risk reversals measure the premium required to hold a call option relative to a put. Negative values suggest a bias for put options, which reflect expectations of a price drop in the underlying asset. 

The risk reversal for Oct. 11 ether options is -7.3%, while bitcoin's is -5.8%. A similar pattern is observed for expiries up to the end of October.

While BTC risk reversals are positive for Nov. 8 and beyond, ether's don't turn bullish until late December. In other words, traders expect upside volatility in BTC once the election results are out on Nov. 8. Ether isn't expected to turn the corner until later.

- Omkar Godbole