The latest moves in crypto markets, in context By Omkar Godbole, CoinDesk Markets Reporter Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here. |
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Happy Tuesday! Here’s what you need to know today in crypto: |
- BTC stabilized, but its 10% monthly drop may be bad news for Nasdaq.
- Biden will lose the presidency, prediction market suggests.
- Bernstein forecasts lower uptake for impending U.S.-based spot ETFs.
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CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,094 +2.5%
Bitcoin (BTC): $61,421 +0.8%
Ether (ETC): $3,384 +2.2%
S&P 500: 5,447.87 −0.3%
Gold: $2,346 +0.7%
Nikkei 225: $2,346 +0.7% |
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The crypto market regained some poise early Tuesday as analysts said supply overhang concerns stemming from defunct exchange Mt. Gox's planned distribution of 140,000 BTC are overdone. Bitcoin traded above $61,000, having hit a low of $58,580 on Monday. The broader market gauge of the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) bounced to 2,083 points from 2,020. Still, BTC, a liquidity proxy for macro traders, is down almost 10% for the month, starkly contrasting with a 5% gain in Wall Street's tech-heavy index, Nasdaq. The differing trajectories might foreshadow a tightening of liquidity conditions in financial markets and be a bearish signal for Nasdaq. "If Bitcoin serves as a liquidity gauge, then it would tell us that liquidity in the market is falling and that the Nasdaq 100 should eventually follow suit and move lower as well," Mott Capital Management founder Michael Kramersaid in his daily analysis. “It may not be such a good sign for Nvidia, either, because Nvidia has tracked Bitcoin fairly well, too.” |
Traders on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket have already chosen a winner in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, and it's not incumbent Joe Biden. A Polymarket contract asking who would win the election showed Republican candidate Donald Trump as the clear favorite, with a 57% chance of winning versus 35% for Biden. Meanwhile, another contract showed Biden winning the popular vote, which merely represents the proportion of votes cast for each candidate and carries no electoral weight. Trump’s favorable stance on crypto means BTC and the wider market could emerge as a bet on Trump’s presidency in the lead up to the Nov. 4 election. The impending U.S.-based spot ether ETFs could see less demand than their already live BTC peers, brokerBernstein said in a report Monday, echoing recent comments by investment banking giantJPMorgan. "ETH should not see as much spot ETH conversion due to the lack of an ETH staking feature in the ETF," analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote, adding that the basis trade will likely find takers over time and this should contribute to healthy liquidity in the ETF market. Spot ether ETFs are close to becoming available to investors in the U.S. after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved key regulatory filings from issuers last month. The excitement surrounding their debut has investors anticipating higher ether price swings than bitcoin. Some analysts believe it is unfounded. |
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Market Insight: Mt. Gox Redemption Fears Overblown, Traders Say |
Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox’s trustees said Monday they are preparing to start distributing bitcoin (BTC) stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in the first week of July. The news spurred expectations that recipients might sell coins, sending BTC briefly below $60,000. Analysts, however, say redemption fears are overdone. “The impact on bitcoin's price from Mt. Gox distributing Bitcoin is likely overblown,” Sam Callahan, a senior analyst at Swan Bitcoin, said in a Tuesday email to CoinDesk. “Creditors who wanted to sell their bitcoin have now had more than 10 years to do so through selling their bankruptcy claims to more convicted, long-term investors. “In addition, most creditors will likely hold their bitcoin because their cost basis is less than $700 per bitcoin,” he said. |
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- The notional open interest in bitcoin futures listed across centralized exchanges has declined by 14% to $37 billion since June 7.
- The decline represents the unwinding of carry/basis trades due to negative funding rates, according to analysts at Bitfinex.
- Source: Coinglass
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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