July 23, 2024

Ether was little changed after the SEC's approval for ETH ETFs in the U.S. on Monday. The second-largest cryptocurrency traded around $3,500, just 0.2% higher than 24 hours ago. Still, it outperformed the wider digital asset market, which is 1.3% lower as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20). Some analysts predict that the ETFs' listings could drive the ether price up to $6,500, though inflows are not expected to be nearly as high as for their bitcoin counterparts. Steno Research predicts that the ETFs could see $15 billion-$20 billion of inflows in the first year, the same as bitcoin ETFs have taken in in just seven months.

Bitcoin retreated after retaking $68,000 on Monday, dipping to near $66,000 in the early European morning as Mt. Gox moved its latest tranche of BTC to Bitstamp. Transfers of BTC as part of its repayments to creditors have previously led to sell-offs in the crypto market. At the time of writing, bitcoin sits just below $66,700, around 1.1% lower than 24 hours ago. In early July, Mt. Gox began repaying creditors affected by a 2014 hack. Over $9 billion worth of BTC and $73 million of bitcoin cash (BCH) will be distributed to traders in the coming months.

Citi upgraded its rating for Coinbase shares to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $345 from $260. The bank said the stock could respond positively to an improving regulatory environment as a result of November's U.S. elections and increased confidence in its legal strategy following the overturning of the Chevron Deference Doctrine by the Supreme Court. “We believe the risk/reward setup for Coinbase, particularly as to its defense against the SEC lawsuit, has improved markedly in the past few weeks,” analysts led by Peter Christiansen wrote. While the stock has already risen 52% year-to-date, Citi notes that the upside opportunity from a more benign regulatory backdrop could be too large to ignore, “potentially unlocking sidelined institutional capital, investment, and increased crypto-native and traditional finance collaboration.”

Ether options listed on Deribit are anticipating positive price outcomes from the expected debut of spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. on Tuesday.

Data tracked by Amberdata show short-duration and long-duration call options are trading at a volatility premium to puts. That's a sign traders expect price gains immediately after the introduction and in the months ahead.

The bias for call options runs counter to concerns of a typical "sell-the-fact" price response. A sell-the-fact pullback refers to a price drop stemming from early investors taking profits on the occurrence of a highly anticipated event.

There's historical precedent for those concerns. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell 20% in roughly two weeks after spot ETFs began trading on Jan. 11. The cryptocurrency's options market flipped bearish the day before, warning of a sell-the-fact pullback.

- Omkar Godbole